UFC Fight Night: Cannonier v Borralho Predictions

Seasoned savage Jared Cannonier collides with rising star Caio Borralho in an explosive middleweight main event at UFC Vegas 96 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Top 15 strawweights tussle in the co-headliner at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas as Angela Hill takes on Tabatha Ricci, while Ryan Loder and Robert Valentin face off in the middleweight final of The Ultimate Fighter 32.

Plus, welterweight veteran Neil Magny meets the undefeated Michael Morales and Edmen Shahbazyan squares off against Gerald Meerschaert at middleweight.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Jared Cannonier (2.90) v Caio Borralho (1.43) (Middleweight)

A special athlete who’s had success at heavyweight, light heavyweight and middleweight, Cannonier (17-7) is a feared veteran with concussive power and a wealth of experience. This is his fourth straight main event booking and his seventh time headlining a UFC card.

He’s been a staple of the middleweight elite for years, with the legendary Anderson Silva, Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson being among his 10 knockout victims. “The Killa Gorilla” challenged for the championship in 2022, but it was not to be as he was outpointed by then-king Israel Adesanya.

With his desire to capture UFC gold still burning bright, he bounced back with a split decision win over Sean Strickland – who’d go on to win the title a few fights later – and produced a record-setting performance in his decision victory over fellow former title challenger Marvin Vettori last June, in which he landed 241 significant strikes, the most ever in a middleweight fight.

His momentum was halted in controversial fashion two months ago when an early referee stoppage resulted in a fourth-round TKO loss to Nassourdine Imavov. Despite the setback, the powerful American is still ranked highly in fifth place, but at the age of 40, he cannot afford another slip-up, especially not against someone outside of the top 10 like Borralho (16-1, 1 NC).

One of the rising stars at 185 pounds, Borralho is unbeaten in the UFC, rattling off six straight wins to start his career in the world’s pre-eminent mixed martial arts promotion. Most recently scoring a second-round knockout against veteran Paul Craig in May, he’s on a 16-fight unbeaten streak dating back to 2016 and gets his first main event opportunity ranked at No. 12.

Given his impressive run and the fact that at 31, Borralho’s the younger, faster fighter, it makes sense that he’s the favourite. “The Natural” is dynamic on the feet and slick on the ground. His ability to mix striking and grappling effectively is one of his big strengths and has earned him five knockouts and four submissions.

Having said that, there’s life in Cannonier yet. Yes, he’s slowed down, but he’s as strong as ever and there’s nothing wrong with his gas tank. He’s beaten better strikers, grapplers and all-rounders than Borralho and while he’s known for his power, he’s a crisp striker whose fight IQ is underrated because he’s such a physical specimen.

To that end, he’s a seasoned technician who knows how to fight five-round fights, whereas Borralho has exclusively had three-round fights up until now. Adding to that, Cannonier throws more volume, landing 4.62 significant strikes per minute to the Brazilian’s 2.91.

He also has a two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, is tough to take down and has a good chin. Add his elite-level experience and he’s a solid underdog pick.

Prediction: Cannonier by decision.

Best Bet: Cannonier at 2.90.

Alternative Bet: Cannonier by decision

Angela Hill (1.90) v Tabatha Ricci (1.90) (Strawweight)

A veteran of the fight game, Hill (17-13) will make history in the co-main event by becoming just the second woman to make 25 appearances in the UFC. The only other female fighter to reach this milestone is former strawweight queen Jessica Andrade.

“Overkill” still has fight left in her despite being 39 and sits ninth in the rankings following wins over Denise Gomes and Luana Pinheiro. Still evolving, her triumph over Pinheiro last time out was her first by submission. She’s made a career out of being a crafty point-fighter, using her long limbs to good effect and will have a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage.

Ranked 11th, Ricci (10-2) is a spunky spitfire who’s won five of her last six fights. The Brazilian’s most recent appearance saw her edge Tecia Torres by split decision in May. “Baby Shark” is a tenacious grappler with solid striking and uses her low centre of gravity to get in under her opponents and force them to the ground.

Ten years Hill’s junior, she’ll have a decided speed advantage, which along with the relentless pace she pushes, should see her get her hand raised.

Prediction: Ricci by decision.

Best Bet: Ricci at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Ricci by decision

Ryan Loder (2.50) v Robert Valentin (1.55) (Middleweight)

The middleweight winner of Season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter will be crowned in the featured bout.

Flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and all-time great Valentina Shevchenko served as coaches on the reality TV competition this year ahead of their trilogy bout next month. Both finalists are from Team Grasso and impressed on their way to the decider.

An All-American wrestler, Loder (6-1) relied on his strength, wrestling and grappling to submit Tommy Theocharis in his opening round fight and outworked Omran Chaaban to clinch his semi-final scrap by decision.

A dominant force out of Switzerland, Valentin (10-3) marched to the final with a 15-second knockout win over Giannis Bachar and a submission victory over Paddy McCorry. 

On a seven-fight win streak, “Robzilla” is younger yet more experienced than Loder, more explosive and more well-rounded, all of which should see him reign supreme.

Prediction: Valentin by knockout.

Best Bet: Valentin at 1.55.

Alternative Bet: Valentin by KO/TKO/DQ

Neil Magny (7.00) v Michael Morales (1.11) (Welterweight)

An up-and-coming killer, Morales puts his undefeated record on the line against the litmus test of the 170-pound division.

The Ecuadorian prospect is a perfect 16-0 with 11 knockouts, with four of those wins coming in the UFC. The 25-year-old is fast, powerful and dynamic and a full 12 years younger than his veteran opponent. He has fast hands and feet and throws plenty of volume.

Magny, whose record is 29-11, has long been the gatekeeper of the welterweight division. The tall and rangy stalwart is crafty on the feet but it’s his high-level grappling that’s mainly allowed him to stick around for as long as he has.

Just when you think the game has passed “The Haitian Sensation” by, he proves he’s still a handful as he did in his last fight, when he stunned heavy favourite Mike Malott in the highly touted Canadian prospect’s backyard in January.

Despite this, he’s an even bigger underdog for this fight, not only because of Morales’ skill and momentum but also because Magny’s been consistently inconsistent in recent years, trading wins and losses in each of his last nine fights.

Expect that to continue and for him to lose his No. 12 ranking to Morales.

Prediction: Morales by decision.

Best Bet: Morales by decision

Alternative Bet: Morales by KO/TKO/DQ

Edmen Shahbazyan (1.34) v Gerald Meerschaert (3.35) (Middleweight)

The main card opener is another clash between a promising young fighter and a seasoned veteran.

Unbeaten before he ran into Derek Brunson back in 2020, two losses to Jack Hermansson and Nassourdine Imavov followed, proving Shahbazyan (13-4) was not yet ready to face elite competition.

Dipping back down the pecking order, he’s won two of his last three fights and hopes to build on his knockout of AJ Dobson in January. “The Golden Boy” is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with 11 knockouts to his name and has only gone to a decision twice.  

Meerschaert (36-17) is a grappling specialist with a world of experience. He snapped a two-fight skid with a win over Bryan Barberena in March, which was his 28th by submission. The problem for him is that he’s so one-dimensional that if he’s unable to get a fight to the ground, he’s a human heavy bag.

Bank on Shahbazyan to drop and stop “GM3.”

Prediction: Shahbazyan by knockout.

Best Bet: Shahbazyan by KO/TKO/DQ

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds