UFC Fight Night: Burns v Brady Predictions

Former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns squares off against rising star Sean Brady in a main event battle at UFC Vegas 97 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Former strawweight queen Jessica Andrade faces Natalia Silva in a clash of elite flyweights in the co-headliner at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, with featherweights Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson throwing down in the featured bout.

Plus, two lightweight tilts will see Trevor Peek take on Yanal Ashmouz, and Rongzhu collide with Chris Padilla.

MAIN CARD (from 1 AM Sunday SA time):

Gilbert Burns (2.50) v Sean Brady (1.55) (Welterweight)

A staple in the welterweight elite, sixth-ranked Burns (22-7) is hell-bent on getting back on track after having dropped successive bouts for the first time in his 12-year career.

He was outworked by Belal Muhammad, who went on to become champion, last May and was minutes away from a decision win over Jack Della Maddalena in March before the Australian rallied to score a third-round knockout.

“Durinho”, who fought then-king Kamaru Usman for the title in 2021, has battled and beaten some of the best at 170 pounds, including Jorge Masvidal, Stephen Thompson and former champion Tyron Woodley.

He can do it all at the highest level. He has power and heart as he showed in his classic three-round war with Khamzat Chimaev in 2022, and he’s a grappling wizard. A multi-time jiu-jitsu world champion, he has nine submission wins and five knockouts to his name.

Meanwhile, eighth-ranked Brady (16-1) is looking to build on a submission win over Kelvin Gastelum in December, which saw him bounce back from the lone loss of his career, a TKO defeat at the hands of Muhammad.

A cardio machine and jiu-jitsu standout, this will be his first UFC main event, and he’ll look to maximise the biggest fight of his career by becoming the first man to tap out Burns. He’s submitted five previous opponents and has three knockouts to his credit.

Experience counts in Burns’ favour. The Brazilian has had nothing but elite competition for years and has headlined two previous UFC cards, whereas Brady’s only top-tier opposition were Muhammad and Gastelum, and the latter’s a far cry from the fighter he was in his prime.  

The younger man by seven years, 31-year-old Brady will push the pace and test Burns’ gas tank with non-stop pressure and relentless wrestling. Taking Burns down is dangerous given his submission abilities, but Brady will have confidence in his top control and his own jiu-jitsu skills.

The tireless American is rightfully the favourite, but Burns has a lot left in the tank as far as I’m concerned. He has the skill on the feet and the ground to cause Brady problems and conditioning has never been an issue for him, so I like him as the underdog.

Prediction: Burns by decision.

Best Bet: Burns at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Burns by decision at 6.00.

Jessica Andrade (3.50) v Natalia Silva (1.32) (Flyweight)

One of the best female MMA fighters of all time, Andrade (26-12) is still among the cream of the crop despite being past her prime.

The former strawweight champion had endured a career-worst three-fight losing streak last year but has come out on the other side with successive wins over Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez to sit fourth in the flyweight rankings.

A sure-fire future Hall of Famer, “Bate Estaca” is a heavy-handed pit bull of a striker (10 knockouts) and a crocodile of a grappler (eight submissions) and will look to draw on her elite-level experience to turn back one of the division’s hottest prospects.

Silva (17-5-1) is unbeaten inside the Octagon, having strung together five straight wins since joining the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion in 2022 to climb to No. 8 in the rankings. Overall, she hasn’t lost since 2017 and is chasing her 12th consecutive win.

Like her fellow Brazilian, she’s a well-rounded, aggressive fighter (five knockouts and seven submissions) and evolved exponentially in her last two fights against Andrea Lee and Viviane Araujo, both of which she won by decision.

She’ll have a speed and reach advantage as the younger and bigger fighter and, being a southpaw with good footwork, she’s proven to be a tough puzzle to solve.

However, if anyone does have the answer it’s a decorated veteran like Andrade, who’s too good to pass up at these odds.

Prediction: Andrade by decision.

Best Bet: Andrade at 3.50.

Alternative Bet: Andrade by decision at 7.00.

Steve Garcia (1.54) v Kyle Nelson (2.54) (Featherweight)

Streaking featherweights face off in the featured bout.

Stepping in for an injured Calvin Kattar, Garcia (16-5) is on a four-fight win streak with each of those victories coming by knockout to move his impressive KO tally up to 13.

With that streak, it’s no secret that the man known as “Mean Machine” is a high-level striker and boasts rare power for a 145-pounder. A savage southpaw, he’s never looked better and is primed for another big performance.

Nelson (16-5-1) is unbeaten in his last four fights. Following a majority draw with Doo Ho Choi, he outworked Blake Bilder and Fernando Padilla before knocking out Bill Algeo in March. “The Monster” is a solid all-rounder who weaponizes his cardio.

Garcia’s the superior striker, both in terms of technique and output, and he has a four-inch reach advantage. In addition, he’s a hard man to get to the ground, boasting an 88% takedown defence. Add the fact that Nelson gets hit a lot and Garcia’s set to march on.   

Prediction: Garcia by knockout. 

Best Bet: Garcia by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Garcia at 1.54.

Trevor Peek (1.80) v Yanal Ashmouz (2.05) (Lightweight)

Strap in for what a strong Fight of the Night contender between lightweight brawlers should be. Both men have a 90% finish rate and are coming off defeats, so they’ll be more determined than ever, making for a must-watch dust-up.

A pure striker, Peek (9-2) has been consistently inconsistent in his 2-2 run in the UFC. He’s not the most technical striker around, so he struggles against smoother stand-up fighters.  

Ashmouz (7-1) is not in that category, though. He, too, is far from technically sound and even though he has decent grappling, he hardly uses it. The Israeli fighter enjoyed a dream UFC debut in which he knocked out Sam Patterson in the first round but has been stewing for over a year since suffering his first professional loss to Chris Duncan.

This one could go either way, but Peek has more experience inside the Octagon and should be sharper having fought in April, so I see him getting the better of “Red Fox.”

Prediction: Peek by knockout.

Best Bet: Peek at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Peek by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.75.

Rongzhu (1.43) v Chris Padilla (2.90) (Lightweight)

All eyes will be on the returning Rongzhu (25-5) in the main card opener.

An athlete with a world of potential, he’s already had a previous stint in the UFC and is just 24 years of age. Rather harshly cut after going 1-2 inside the Octagon, he’s won four straight and clinched the Road to UFC 2 lightweight tournament since to earn a return to the big time.

Padilla (14-6) plans to overcome the odds again after seizing an upset submission win over James Llontop in his short-notice UFC debut in April. The 28-year-old will most likely look to lean on his grappling again as his Chinese opponent is much faster and crisper on the feet.

That said, Rongzhu has demonstrated good takedown defence in his last few fights and has grown overall, so I expect him to be fully prepared and make a successful comeback to the promotion.

Prediction: Rongzhu by decision.

Best Bet: Rongzhu by decision at 3.50.

Alternative Bet: Rongzhu at 1.43.