UFC Fight Night: Brunson v Till & Main Card Predictions

Top-10 middleweights Derek Brunson and Darren Till throw down in a major main event clash at UFC Vegas 36 on Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The future of the heavyweight division will be on show in the co-main event at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas as Tom Aspinall squares off against Sergei Pavlovich.

Fresh off a massive win over the legendary Donald Cerrone, welterweight mainstay Alex Morono will look to build on that momentum against David Zawada, while light heavyweight strikers Modestas Bukauskas and Khalil Rountree will slug it out.

But first, the magnetic Paddy Pimblett makes his much-anticipated UFC debut against Luigi Vendramini at lightweight.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Derek Brunson (2.55) v Darren Till (1.55) (Middleweight)

Even though Brunson (22-7) has won all four of his fights since to climb up to fifth place in the middleweight rankings, the lasting memory most fans have of him is the beating he took at the hands of Israel Adesanya back in 2018. The first-round finish launched the UFC career of “The Last Stylebender”, who now sits on the throne, while Brunson’s still trying to restore the reputational damage of that lashing.

He took the biggest step on that journey against a surging Kevin Holland in his last fight. Lose the March meeting and he would’ve been relegated to gatekeeper status. Instead, he outclassed “Trailblazer” over five rounds to show he’s still among the middleweight elite. He’s well-rounded with a dozen knockouts to his name.

Till (18-3-1) is a sensational striker with 10 of his 18 wins coming by knockout and six by decision. “The Gorilla” took over the mantle as Europe’s best from former middleweight champion Michael Bisping when he burst onto the UFC scene in 2017 and racked up four wins, including stopping Cerrone and outpointing Stephen Thompson, to earn a shot at Tyron Woodley’s welterweight championship.

“The Chosen One” proved too good, handing Till his first career loss in September 2018 and he’s been blowing hold and cold ever since. He’s faced the cream of the crop, though, it must be said. After being knocked out by Jorge Masvidal on home soil following the title heartbreak, the muscular Till made the inevitable move up to middleweight and made an immediate splash by beating top contender Kelvin Gastelum via split decision at UFC 244, however, he came up short in his next and most recent bout against former champion Robert Whittaker last July.

Ranked seventh, this is a pivotal bout for Till to prove he’s a legitimate title contender at 185 pounds (84kg). Because the Liverpool ace is such a marketable and charismatic character, Adesanya’s pulled for him in the past, knowing a fight between them would be one of the biggest draws in the division.

An emphatic win could put Till next in line to face the winner of the rematch between Adesanya and Whittaker, which is expected to go down early next year, but at this important juncture, any win would do for the 28-year-old to get back on track.

Till is the more technical and dynamic striker of the two. He’s also disciplined and patient on the feet, has good speed and footwork and solid takedown defence, so he should get the better of Brunson by TKO.

Prediction: Till via TKO.

Best Bet: Till by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.62.

Alternative Bet: Under 3.5 rounds at 1.83.

Tom Aspinall (1.37) v Sergey Spivak (3.15) (Heavyweight)

All eyes are on Aspinall (10-2), one of the most exciting heavyweight prospects of late. A well-rounded savage with a 100% finish rate, he boasts eight knockouts and two tapouts and is 3-0 since joining the UFC last year.

His last fight also happened to be the best advertisement of his aggression, skill and potential and saw him earn the biggest win of his career as he lit up former champion Andrei Arlovski on the feet before submitting him. That win in February was only the third time he went to a second round and moved him up to 13th in the rankings, one place above Spivak (13-2).

“The Polar Bear” is a short-notice replacement for Sergei Pavlovich and as such, he has a tall order in front of him, both literally and figuratively. Aspinall’s the bigger yet also the faster man, both with his hands and his feet, and has sufficient takedown defence to keep it standing and spark Spivak, who’s the biggest underdog on the main card.

Prediction: Aspinall via stoppage.

Best Bet: Aspinall by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.80.

Alternative Bets: Aspinall by first-round stoppage at 1.95 or Aspinall by second-round stoppage at 5.75.

Alex Morono (1.68) v David Zawada (2.25) (Welterweight)

Morono (19-7-1NC) is proving himself to be a hitman this year. He swooped in on short notice and took out “Cowboy” Cerrone with a first-round knockout in May and is looking to repeat the feat as he jumps in as a late replacement for Sergey Khandozkho.

What the change in opponent means for Zawada (17-6), who’s coming off a loss, is that he’s gone from favourite to underdog. Indeed, this is a gamble rather than a calculated risk by the German striker, who’s a finisher of note (all but two of his wins are by stoppage), but hasn’t fought the calibre of opponent Morono is.

Capable on the feet and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, “The Great White” is a bad stylistic match-up for Zawada as well, so it’s no wonder he smells blood in the water. Expect the opportunistic Morono to come out on top.

Prediction: Morono via decision.

Best Bet: Morono at 1.68.

Alternative Bet: Morono by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 1.90.

Modestas Bukauskas (1.64) v Khalil Rountree (2.35) (Light Heavyweight)

Desperation will drive this duo of struggling strikers. One, Bukauskas (11-4), is a volume puncher, the other relies on power, yet both are coming off back-to-back defeats. Hard-hitting Rountree (8-5) is my underdog pick of the main card. He’s inconsistent, but when he’s on, he’s on, as big wins over Paul Craig and Eryk Anders attest.

Bukauskas gets hit a lot, which is a recipe for disaster against Rountree, who while guilty of loading up at times, has bursts of explosive speed that I sense will allow him to close the distance and connect flush on “The Baltic Gladiator” to spring the upset.

Prediction: Rountree via knockout.

Best Bet: Rountree at 2.35.

Alternative Bet: Rountree via knockout at 3.40.

Paddy Pimblett (1.68) v Luigi Vendramini (2.25) (Lightweight)

UK regional darling “Paddy the Baddy” finally makes his UFC bow in the main card opener. As charismatic as he is a complete competitor, his is the most anticipated debut in quite some time and it’s a shame there won’t be a full crowd to soak up and add to one of the most entertaining walkouts in all of MMA.

Like Israel Adesanya, Pimblett resisted the temptation of greater fame and fortune, delaying his inevitable arrival in the UFC in order to gain experience so that when he ultimately pulled the trigger, he’d be ready for whatever is thrown at him inside the Octagon.

At 26, he’s already a veteran with an impressive record of 16-3, which includes five wins by knockout and seven by submission. Vendramini (9-2) fell short in his last fight but he’s no easy out. All of the Brazilian’s wins are by stoppage – five by KO and four by tapout.

However, Pimblett should be able to neutralise him with his wrestling to ride out a decision or possibly ground-and-pound his way to a TKO win.

Prediction: Pimblett via decision.

Best Bet: Pimblett at 1.68.

Alternative Bet: Pimblett by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 2.50.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.