UFC Fight Night: Barboza v Chikadze Predictions

Elite strikers Edson Barboza and Giga Chikadze will go blow-for-blow in a can’t-miss featherweight main event at UFC Vegas 35 on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

Two Ultimate Fighter tournament winners will also be crowned at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas with Bryan Battle and Gilbert Urbina vying for the middleweight honours in the co-headliner and Ricky Turcios and Brady Hiestand battling it out for the bantamweight bragging rights.

Two other 185 pounders who competed on this season of The Ultimate Fighter will also be in action as Andre Petroski squares off against Micheal Gillmore. Plus, former interim lightweight title challenger Kevin Lee returns from a long injury layoff to duke it out with Daniel Rodriguez at welterweight and Makhmud Muradov meets Gerald Meerschaert in a middleweight match-up. 

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Edson Barboza (1.86) v Giga Chikadze (1.95) (Featherweight)

Fireworks are guaranteed in this must-watch headliner between the number nine and 10th-ranked contenders in the featherweight division. Barboza (22-9) is the higher-ranked and vastly more experienced fighter, having been in the UFC for over a decade, while Chikadze (13-2) has taken the UFC by storm, winning all six of his fights inside the Octagon. 

This won’t be an MMA fight but rather a high-level striking war for however long it lasts. Barboza is one of the deadliest and most sophisticated strikers in UFC history. The taekwondo black belt is a human highlight-reel on the feet, especially with his cavalcade of kicks, which saw him produce one of the all-time great knockouts when he flatlined Terry Etim back in 2012.

“Junior” delivered another knockout (his 13th overall) that will live on in MMA lore in his last fight in May when accumulative damage eventually saw Shane Burgos’ body switch off in the most bizarre and delayed manner you’ll ever see. That was in a three-rounder, so Chikadze has his work cut out for him in this five-round main event. 

The Georgian isn’t quite as flashy as Barboza, but he’s a phenomenal kicker in his own right. The southpaw proved as much in his last two fights, first by stopping Jamey Simmons with a head kick and then by crushing Cub Swanson with a wicked body kick (his eighth KO) to pick up the biggest win of his career in May. It’s that lethal high-low double trouble with the left leg that will pose the biggest problem for Barboza.

“Ninja” is the real deal but Barboza has more weapons in his arsenal and has headlined two cards before, whereas this is Chikadze’s maiden main event. Because of that greater versatility and experience, I’m backing Barboza. 

Prediction: Barboza via decision. 

Best Bet: Barboza at 1.86.

Alternative Bets: Barboza by decision at 4.00 or Barboza by knockout at 3.25.

Bryan Battle (1.62) v Gilbert Urbina (2.40) (TUF Middleweight Final)

I’m a bit surprised that Battle (5-1) isn’t a bigger favourite on the betting line. He certainly is based on what’s transpired on season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter. He won both of his bouts, claiming a dominant decision victory over Kemran Lachinov and submitting Andre Petroski, to extend his win streak to four and book his place in the final. 

Urbina (6-1), meanwhile, was knocked out by Tresean Gore in the semi-finals but a knee injury to Gore has given Urbina a second shot at tournament glory and a UFC contract that comes with it. Both men are excellent grapplers, so it’ll be especially compelling if the fight hits the floor. 

“Poo Bear” not only has the momentum and better preparation, with Urbina coming in on a week-and-a-half’s notice but is also sharper in the striking department. He doesn’t have the power of Gore to get Urbina out of there, so he’s likely to take the spoils by decision. 

Prediction: Battle via decision. 

Best Bet: Battle by submission/decision at 1.86.

Alternative Bets: Battle by decision at 3.00.

Ricky Turcios (1.62) v Brady Hiestand (2.40) (TUF Bantamweight Final)

Turcios (10-2) registered hard-fought wins over Dan Argueta and Liudvik Sholinian while Hiestand (5-1) edged Josh Rettinghouse by split decision before dominating Vince Murdock to set up this bantamweight tournament final. Hiestand is talented but still raw at this early stage of his career. He’s done well to reach the final but at just 22 years of age, he’s been punching above his experience level and is likely to come up short against a seasoned pro in Turcios. 

Turcios is a proven 12-fight veteran and as a member of the renowned Team Alpha Male, he’s far more polished and boasts a more complete skill set than his young opponent. Those strengths will play a pivotal role in propelling “Pretty Ricky” to a life-changing win. 

Prediction: Turcios via decision.

Best Bet: Turcios at 1.62.

Alternative Bet: With just three knockouts and one submission win, Turcios has a 60% decision rate and looks set to win on the scorecards again. You can get him by decision at 2.50.

Kevin Lee (1.66) v Daniel Rodriguez (2.30) (Welterweight)

The returning Lee (18-6) adds star power to the card. Stylistically and track record-wise, he’s the obvious choice. He’s a Division II All American wrestler with heavy hands and holds high-profile wins over the likes of Michael Chiesa and the night’s headliner, Barboza. “The Motown Phenom” has 11 finishes – three knockouts and eight submissions – and has fought the best of the best at lightweight (70kg). 

Two factors that narrow the line are the fact that Lee’s returning from surgeries to both knees and is doing so at welterweight. His only previous venture at 170 pounds (77kg) saw him succumb to Rafael Dos Anjos by submission. Another of his eight submission losses came in his last fight last March against Charles Oliveira, who’s now the lightweight champion.  

Rodriguez (15-2) has decent jiu-jitsu, which has earned him four tapout wins, but not nearly at the level of Oliveira or some of Lee’s other former foes, so it won’t deter him from employing a heavy wrestling-based attack. “D-Rod”, rather, is known for his knockout power, his first-round stoppage of Preston Parsons last month being his eighth KO. 

He’s won five of his six UFC fights but has never fought anyone of Lee’s calibre. It’s an opportunity that came fortuitously, as he replaced Sean Brady, but one he deserves and will look to seize. On the flipside, Rodriguez is an easier opponent for Lee than the undefeated Brady, albeit still a dangerous one. 

Even if Lee is 80% the fighter he was before his injury woes in this comeback fight, he should still be able to dictate terms with his wrestling and get his hand raised, most likely by decision or submission. 

Prediction: Lee via decision.

Best Bet: Lee at 1.66

Alternative Bet: Lee by submission/decision at 1.86.

Andre Petroski (1.19) v Micheal Gillmore (3.85) (Middleweight)

Gillmore (6-3) is the joint-biggest underdog on the main card along with Meerschaert and his chances of a shock win are slim. He was initially overlooked for The Ultimate Fighter but quit his job in the hopes of a late call-up and sure enough, it came when Miles Hunsinger was forced out with an injury. 

He was submitted relatively easily by Urbina and looks set to suffer the same fate against Petroski (5-1). The 30-year-old was one of the early picks to win the tournament but was bested by Battle in the semi-finals. A natural finisher, all of his wins are by stoppage (three knockouts and two submissions) and his dominant grappling will see him continue that trend. 

Prediction: Petroski via submission.

Best Bet: Petroski by submission at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 1.76.

Makhmud Muradov (1.19) v Gerald Meerschaert (3.85) (Middleweight)

Kicking things off is a fascinating fight between a knockout artist and a submission specialist. Muradov (25-6) is a fierce and flashy striker with 17 knockouts to his credit. Look no further than his last offering, an overhand followed by a flying knee and barrage of punches that melted Andrew Sanchez. That impressive victory in January was his 14th in a row and third in the UFC, including a memorable walk-off KO of Trevor Smith.

In Meerschaert (32-14), he faces a true veteran and crafty competitor. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt snapped a two-fight losing skid in trademark fashion when he made Bartosz Fabinski his 24th submission victim in April. 

However, the matchmakers haven’t been kind to “GM3” here and even though he’s game, he’ll have a tough time trying to take “Mach” to the mat and will instead, find himself looking up at the lights. 

Prediction: Muradov via knockout.

Best Bet: Muradov by knockout at 1.68.

Alternative Bets: Muradov by first-round stoppage at 2.75 or Muradov by second-round stoppage at 4.00.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.