UFC 314: Volkanovski v Lopes Predictions

Old school meets new school as the legendary Alexander Volkanovski faces rising star Diego Lopes for the vacant featherweight championship in the main event of UFC 314 at the Kaseya Center in Miami on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The loaded card includes a can’t-miss lightweight co-headliner between human highlight reel Michael Chandler and the uber-popular Paddy Pimblett.

The featherweight division is in full focus with two other fights at 145 pounds forming part of the main card. Yair Rodriguez welcomes former two-weight Bellator champion Patricio Freire to the Octagon and Bryce Mitchell battles Jean Silva in a grudge match.

Plus, dangerous light heavyweights Nikita Krylov and Dominick Reyes collide.

MAIN CARD:

When: Sunday, April 13, 5:00 AM SAST

Alexander Volkanovski (1.76) v Diego Lopes (2.00) (Vacant Featherweight Championship)

A legend from Down Under looks to rise and rule over the featherweight division once more in the main event. However, a rising star from Brazil plans to usher in a new era.

Volkanovski (26-4) is amongst the top 1% of UFC athletes. At 36, he’s cemented himself as the greatest featherweight of all time. He’d ruled over the 145-pound division for over four years and successfully defended his title on five occasions before his reign came to an end at the hands of the undefeated Ilia Topuria.

Topuria seized the belt by second-round knockout last February, becoming the first man in history to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. It’s also the first time in the Australian icon’s 13-year career that he’s on a two-fight losing skid as he was stopped by lightweight champion and pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev prior to his clash with Topuria.

Topuria defended the title once, knocking out another all-time great Max Holloway in October, before vacating the belt and announcing his move up to lightweight. Thus, a new champion will be crowned at the Kaseya Center.

No. 1-ranked Volkanovski is one of the smartest fighters in the business. His Einstein-esque fight IQ, tactical prowess, speed and seemingly endless gas tank are what’s made him unstoppable at featherweight. While he’s able to go toe-to-toe with his younger foe, he’s a master of playing the long game, having gone the full 25 minutes five times.

For “The Great”, this is an opportunity to prove he’s still the gold standard at 145 and he can do so by relying on his intelligence and championship experience to dictate the pace of the fight and drag his opponent into deep, uncharted waters.

Lopes (26-6) is one of the most exciting prospects in mixed martial arts. After giving undefeated Movsar Evloev all he could handle in a short-notice losing effort in his UFC debut in May 2023, he scored three straight first-round stoppages (against Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff), each faster than the last.

The all-action dynamo then defeated veteran Dan Ige by decision and made the biggest statement of all by battering former title challenger Brian Ortega over three rounds last September to climb to third in the rankings.

The electrifying Brazilian has flair, both on the feet and the ground. Aggressive by nature, he’s secured all but four of his wins by finish (10 knockouts and 12 submissions) and will push the action against the cerebral great.

As good as Lopes has looked, Volkanovski is on another level. I don’t buy into suggestions that Volk’s time has come and gone and see him using his smarts, footwork and experience to reclaim the title.

Prediction: Volkanovski by decision.
Best Bet: Volkanovski at 1.76.
Alternative Bet: Volkanovski by decision at 3.00.

Michael Chandler (2.25) v Paddy Pimblett (1.61) (Lightweight)

The co-main event is not only a fun bit of matchmaking but a critical fight in both men’s careers.

Chandler (23-9) has fought nothing but top contenders and legends since he arrived in the UFC in 2021 and battled Charles Oliveira for the title that same here. He’s established himself as one of the most exciting fighters on the planet, going to war with a killed-or-be-killed mindset.

However, results haven’t been favourable. Losing a rematch against Oliveira last time out moved his UFC record to 2-4 and dropped him to seventh in the rankings. Now he’s accepted a fight with someone outside of the top 10, doing so due to the hype around Pimblett (22-3), and he simply cannot afford to lose.  

No. 12-ranked Pimblett is undefeated in his six-fight UFC career. “The Baddy” has fought lower-level fighters but is developing nicely. His striking still needs work but his grappling is top-tier, as he showed by putting King Green to sleep in his last fight to claim his 10th career win by submission.

The 30-year-old Brit is super confident but has never fought anyone the calibre of Chandler. Chandler, on the other hand, needs to keep his emotions in check as he’s lost himself in the violence and done himself a disservice at times in his last few fights.

With this being scheduled for five rounds, the edge goes to the more experienced Chandler, who has a proven gas tank. I don’t see it going the distance, though. Chandler has to be careful with his takedown entries so as to not put himself in bad positions, but other than that, he holds the cards.

“Iron” has the takedown defence to keep the fight standing, where his speed and explosiveness coupled with Pimblett’s bad habit of keeping his chin in the air should lead to a welcome win for Chandler.

Prediction: Chandler by knockout.
Best Bet: Chandler at 2.25.
Alternative Bet: Chandler by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.00.

Yair Rodriguez (1.48) v Patricio Freire (2.55) (Featherweight)

The dogs will be barking in Miami as Freire (36-7), better known as “Pitbull”, makes his highly anticipated UFC debut in the featured bout.

One of Bellator’s all-time greats, he held the featherweight title three times and captured the lightweight crown with a quick knockout of Michael Chandler. At 37, he has zero time to waste in his search for UFC gold and thus jumps straight into the deep end against one of the best at 145 pounds.

A former interim featherweight champion, Rodriguez is arguably the most dynamic and unpredictable striker in the division. He holds wins over the iconic BJ Penn, former title challenger Brian Ortega and Josh Emmett, currently finds himself in the top five and vows he won’t allow “Pitbull” to use him as a springboard.

“Pitbull” is extremely well-rounded but will struggle with the size, reach and athleticism of fifth-ranked “El Pantera”, whose five-inch height and five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage should prove decisive.

Prediction: Rodriguez by decision.
Best Bet: Rodriguez by decision at 2.25.
Alternative Bet: Rodriguez at 1.48.

Bryce Mitchell (3.00) v Jean Silva (1.36) (Featherweight)

Bad blood will boil over in this one. Mitchell (17-2) is one of the more outspoken and out-there cats on the UFC roster. He’s convinced the earth is flat and recently made controversial remarks about Adolf Hitler.

His bizarre statements caught the attention of up-and-coming killer Silva (15-2), who called out the American after his latest win, and they’ve been at each other’s throats ever since. It doesn’t help that Silva’s nickname is “Lord”, something Mitchell, as a devout Christian, takes offence to. 

A grappling specialist, thirteenth-ranked Mitchell got back in the win column in style in December when he slammed and knocked out Kron Gracie. After starting his career with a 16-fight unbeaten streak, “Thug Nasty” has been inconsistent in recent years, alternating results in his last five fights.

A lethal striker, Silva has taken the UFC by storm. He’s won all four of his fights inside the Octagon by knockout to move his KO tally up to a dozen and improve his winning streak to 12. He’s a hard man to take down and is so dangerous and dynamic that I only see one outcome and that’s the Brazilian scoring another knockout.

Prediction: Silva by knockout.
Best Bet: Silva by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10.
Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.61.

Nikita Krylov (1.50) v Dominick Reyes (2.50) (Light Heavyweight)

Top-15 light heavyweights promise to start the main card with a bang.

Eighth-ranked Krylov (30-9) has won three in a row, the most recent of which was a submission win over the last man to defeat Reyes (14-4) Ryan Spann. That was back in March 2023, though, so he could be rusty. The Ukrainian has beaten two former title challengers in Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir and is out to add Reyes to that list.

Reyes had a rough time after taking then-champion and the consensus greatest of all time Jon Jones to the limit in their title fight in 2020, losing his next three fights by knockout. However, “The Devastator” has dug himself out of that hole with back-to-back knockout wins over Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith and hopes to seize his moment to re-enter the top 10.

Krylov is not only vastly more experienced than Reyes but, crucially, is the more well-rounded and composed fighter. With more weapons at his exposure, “The Minor” should get his hand raised.

Prediction: Krylov by stoppage.
Best Bet: Krylov at 1.50.
Alternative Bet: Krylov by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.10.