UFC 313: Pereira v Ankalaev Predictions

The co-headliner at the T-Mobile Arena will see human highlight reel Justin Gaethje run it back against former foe Rafael Fiziev in one of three exciting lightweight clashes on the main card.

The other two will see Jalin Turner take on Ignacio Bahamondes, and King Green meet Mauricio Ruffy. Plus, Amanda Lemos and Iasmin Lucindo will square off in a strawweight scrap.

MAIN CARD

When: Sunday, February 9, 5:00 AM SAST

Alex Pereira (1.80) v Magomed Ankalaev (1.95) (Light Heavyweight Championship

He’s an anomaly with an intimidating aura unlike any other. He’s a walking weapon. He’s one of the greatest strikers to ever grace the Octagon. He’s emerged as the biggest star in mixed martial arts in Conor McGregor’s absence. He’s the 2024 Fighter of the Year and the light heavyweight champion of the world.

He’s Alex Pereira (11-2), who’s undefeated since moving up to 205 pounds. “Poatan” is looking to pick up where he left off last year when he defended his crown no less than three times and did so emphatically, knocking out Jamahal Hill, Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree Jr.

All three of those challengers were primarily strikers, whereas Ankalaev (20-1-1) is mainly a grappler. As a former kickboxer, Pereira’s takedown defence has long been a question mark and Ankalaev will be the first to put it to a real test, making him the biggest threat to the Brazilian superstar’s reign.

Ankalaev has been angling for a fight with Pereira since the Brazilian knockout artist won the 205-pound title in November 2023. The Russian had a previous crack at the then-vacant belt in 2022 but he and Jan Blachowicz fought to a draw. Unbeaten since 2018, he bested Aleksandar Rakic this past October to finally earn a shot at Pereira.

Though a grappler, he has solid striking, which he stuck with to earn his recent wins. However, it would be foolish of him to stand with Pereira, the former Glory middleweight and light heavyweight champion who’s claimed all but one of his mixed martial arts wins by knockout.

As much as I’d like Pereira to prevail, to keep the idea of a superfight between him and middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis alive, I don’t trust his takedown defence. He has a great coach in former 205-pound king Glover Teixeira to work on his grappling and has come a long way, but I don’t think it’ll hold up against the relentless charge of Ankalaev, who’ll grind his way to the gold.  

Prediction: Ankalaev by decision.
Best Bet: Ankalaev at 1.95.
Alternative Bet: Ankalaev by decision at 4.33.

Justin Gaethje (2.25) v Rafael Fiziev (1.60) (Lightweight)

Gaethje (25-5) was originally set to face fellow violent artist Dan Hooker in what had Fight of the Year written all over it. However, “The Hangman” was forced out of the fight last week due to injury.

Fiziev (12-3) was the first to raise his hand as a short-notice replacement and has an opportunity to avenge his majority decision loss to Gaethje two years ago. Their first fight was a cracker, so this should be a thrilling affair as well.

One of the most entertaining fighters in UFC history, third-ranked Gaethje is a ferocious seek-and-destroy warrior with 20 knockouts to his name.

A former interim lightweight champion and BMF titleholder, “The Highlight” looks to rebound from his vicious knockout loss to Max Holloway last April. Don’t worry about him being gun-shy, he only knows one way and will come out guns blazing.

Fiziev is a fierce striker in his own right. Ranked 11th, he’s long tried to break into the 155-pound elite and if nothing else, will be a willing dance partner for Gaethje.

“Ataman” is well and truly behind the eight ball, though, as he not only hasn’t had a full training camp but also hasn’t fought since his loss to Mateusz Gamrot in which he suffered a knee injury in September 2023.

Given that, Gaethje should get it done again and will probably get the finish this time around.

Prediction: Gaethje by knockout.
Best Bet: Gaethje at 2.25.
Alternative Bet: Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50.

Jalin Turner (2.00) v Ignacio Bahamondes (1.76) (Lightweight)

We have another banger alert in the featured bout.

Turner (14-8) has claimed all of his wins by stoppage, proving “The Tarantula” is as venomous as they come. However, he’s had a tough time as of late, winning just one of his last four fights.

Context is needed, though, as two of those losses were by split decision to Gamrot and Hooker. Ranked 13th, he’s now going from facing top-level talent to a rising up-and-comer and can, therefore, not afford to lose this one.

Bahamondes (16-5) is a cold-blooded finisher as well with a dozen stoppages to his name, including first-round knockouts of Christos Giagos and Manuel Torres in his last two fights to push his record to 5-1 since August 2021.

For “La Jaula,” this is his shot to break into the rankings. Turner’s a tricky out because he’s exceptionally tall and rangy for the weight class, but those advantages aren’t as pronounced against Bahamondes as he’ll look Turner eye to eye at 6’3″ and will only have a one-and-a-half-inch reach disadvantage.

In what’s essentially a pick ‘em, Turner’s high-level experience makes him a good pick.    

Prediction: Turner by decision.
Best Bet: Turner at 2.00.
Alternative Bet: Turner by decision at 6.00.

Amanda Lemos (2.10) v Iasmin Lucindo (1.70) (Strawweight)

Also on the main card is this battle of Brazilians in the strawweight top 10.

This is a classic seasoned veteran versus surging upstart clash. Lemos (14-4-1) has been a staple in the top five for years and fought for the title two years ago.

An excellent striker with legitimate knockout power, “Amandinha” has top technique and even though she’s lost a step in the speed department, she’s still as competitive as ever having split her appearances last year.

A four-fight win streak has seen 23-year-old Lucindo (17-5) climb up to seventh place in the rankings, two spots behind her opponent. She is solid across the board but still a raw talent in need of polishing.

She’ll likely look to use her speed and wrestling to ground Lemos but even if she does, her limited top game should allow Lemos to get back to her feet.

Lemos has defeated better grapplers like Mackenzie Dern, so she should be able to get the better of Lucindo.

Prediction: Lemos by decision.
Best Bet: Lemos at 2.10.
Alternative Bet: Lemos by decision at 3.25.

King Green (4.50) v Mauricio Ruffy (1.18) (Lightweight)

Have your snacks and beverages ready for the start of the main card opener because it’s going to be a slugfest that can end at any time.

Green (32-16-1) is an ever-game veteran seeking redemption in his 50th pro fight after a poor mistake led to him being choked out by Paddy Pimblett last time out.

Dangerous everywhere (11 knockouts and nine submissions), he’s a showman who likes nothing more than trading leather and seeing who’s the last man standing.

Ruffy (11-1) is one of the hottest prospects in the game. His athleticism and unpredictable striking make him a joy to watch and super dangerous.

Known as “One Shot,” his last win over James Llontop in November was his first by decision, with the rest all coming by knockout. He should be too dynamic for Green to handle, especially given he has a four-inch reach advantage as well.

Prediction: Ruffy by knockout.
Best Bet: Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.00.
Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.76