UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 Predictions

Pound-for-pound king and lightweight champion Islam Makhachev returns to face familiar foe Arman Tsarukyan in one of two title fights at UFC 311 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

In the co-main event, Merab Dvalishvili makes the first defence of his bantamweight belt against the unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov, while former light heavyweight champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill face off in the featured bout.

Plus, top-10 lightweights Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano meet and the always-entertaining Kevin Holland takes on former two-division ONE Championship champion Reinier de Ridder at middleweight.

MAIN CARD

When: Sunday, 19 January, from 5 AM SAST

Islam Makhachev (1.26) vs Arman Tsarukyan (3.95) (Lightweight Championship)

Elite lightweights on the best runs in the division collide for the crown in the main event of the UFC’s first pay-per-view of the year.

Back in 2019, Makhachev welcomed Tsarukyan to the UFC and beat the newcomer by decision. Makhachev has won nine straight fights since then to extend his win streak to 14.

One of the most impressive runs in UFC history has seen the dominant force from Dagestan clinch the title with a submission victory over Charles Oliveira in 2022 and make three successful title defences – twice against Alexander Volkanovski and, most recently, against Dustin Poirier last June.

In doing so, he’s made the lightweight division his own and climbed to No. 1 in the pound-for-pound rankings. A monster wrestler, a sambo savant with killer instinct and ever-improving striking, Makhachev’s record stands at 26-1 with five knockouts and 12 submissions, with his only loss dating back to his UFC debut back in 2015 when he got caught by Adriano Martins.

Tsarukyan, who holds a 22-3 record with nine knockouts and five submissions, has won nine of his 10 bouts since his first meeting with Makhachev, including a first-round knockout of Dariush and a split decision victory over Oliveira last April to cement himself as the No. 1 contender.

Like the champion, he’s extremely well-rounded and has a great gas tank. At 28, he’s the younger fighter by five years and could have a slight speed advantage. However, Makhachev is such an Octagon general that he knows exactly how to cut the necessary angles to dictate terms.

Tsarukyan had some success in the wrestling department in their first fight, something few of Makhachev’s opponents have managed, but the task is more daunting this time as it’s a five-round fight rather than a three-rounder.

Both men have improved since their first clash, but it’s Makhachev who has evolved the most. He’s become a complete corporal of punishment with little to no chinks in his armour. Not only is he a better and more dangerous version than Tsarukyan, but he also has the world-title experience the Armenian lacks.

In what promises to be a hard-fought, high-level contest, Makhachev will be a step ahead and should win it on the scorecards to secure a record-breaking fourth successful title defence.

Prediction: Makhachev by decision.
Best Bet: Makhachev by decision at 1.83.
Alternative Bet: Over 4.5 rounds at 1.57.

Merab Dvalishvili (3.35) vs Umar Nurmagomedov (1.34) (Bantamweight Championship)

Newly-minted bantamweight champion Dvalishvili (18-4) has a bee in his bonnet going into his first title defence in the co-headliner.

“The Machine” shut down Sean O’Malley in September to seize the 135-pound throne and improve his win streak, which includes victories over three other former champions in Jose Aldo, Petr Yan and Henry Cejudo, to 11.

The Georgian is not impressed with his challenger and doesn’t believe Nurmagomedov is worthy of a title shot despite his perfect record of 18-0.

Dvalishvili points to the fact that Nurmagomedov has only beaten one elite contender in Cory Sandhagen, whom he dominated in August, and feels he’s received special treatment because he’s the cousin of former lightweight champion and Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov.

To further fuel the champion’s fire, he was recently refused entry into the UFC Performance Institute because Nurmagomedov was already in the facility training for their title fight. As charged up as Dvalishvili is, he’s calm and calculated inside the Octagon, so expect him to be on his game.

Dvalishvili is the epitome of a nonstop pressure fighter. Always coming forward, he’s a tireless wrestler without peer in the bantamweight division. He simply does not get tired with his chain wrestling prowess and his striking is constantly improving.

The potential problem for him is that Nurmagomedov trains with a host of world-class grapplers under his cousin Khabib, so if anyone can stop a few of Dvalishvili’s takedowns, it would be him. That would be massive as Nurmagomedov is the better and more diverse striker.

It makes sense that the undefeated Dagestani ace is the favourite but the line is much too wide in my opinion. Dvalishvili, with his superhuman gas tank, offers great value as a sizeable underdog and is my pick to earn a hard-fought decision.

Prediction: Dvalishvili by decision.
Best Bet: Dvalishvili by decision at 4.50.
Alternative Bet: Dvalishvili at 3.35.

Jiri Prochazka (2.10) vs Jamahal Hill (1.76) (Light Heavyweight)

A high-stakes meeting between former light heavyweight champions takes place in the middle of the main card and promises to produce hard-hitting action.

Both men are eager to earn another title shot after being knocked out by reigning king Alex Pereira in their last fight.

Third-ranked Hill (12-2) failed in his bid to reclaim the belt last April. “Sweet Dreams” won the vacant title in January 2023 but was forced to vacate when he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon while playing basketball.

Second-ranked Prochazka (30-5-1) defeated Glover Teixeira for the title in June 2022 but was forced to relinquish when a serious shoulder injury sidelined him for over a year. He faced Pereira for the vacant title in November 2023 and lost by knockout.

The Czech fighter bounced back with a win over Aleksandar Rakic only for history to repeat itself as he lost his second crack at Pereira last June. Both men are phenomenal strikers, so this is bound to be a banger.

Prochazka is a pure predator with all but one of his wins coming by stoppage (26 knockouts and three submissions). Aggressive, unorthodox and unpredictable, “BJP” can strike from anywhere at any time and boasts an impressive highlight reel as a result.

Hill, who has seven knockouts to his name, is a much more traditional and technical striker, and his crispness should prove decisive.

Prediction: Hill by knockout.
Best Bet: Hill at 1.76.
Alternative Bet: Hill by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.75.

Beneil Dariush (2.45) vs Renato Moicano (1.57) (Lightweight)

Top-10 lightweights on opposite trajectories tussle in a compelling clash.

Ranked ninth, Dariush (22-6-1) had a disastrous 2024 that saw him suffer knockout losses to Oliveira and Tsarukyan and undergo knee surgery. At 35, that’s a triple setback few will be able to recover from.

How much does he have left? Not much if one looks at his last couple of performances. At his best, “Benny” is an adequate striker with good grappling and while he has a warrior spirit, his chin isn’t what it used to be.

Moicano (20-5-1), in contrast, had a career resurgence in 2024, defeating Drew Dober, Jalin Turner and Benoit Saint Denis – the latter two by knockout – to climb to No. 10.

“Money” has reached his final form. In other words, he now fully understands his game and knows how to maximise his strengths, which are his excellent grappling, rising fight IQ, high energy and durability.

His last performance in September was his best yet and he should build on that with a convincing victory.

Prediction: Moicano by decision. 
Best Bet: Moicano by decision at 3.25.
Alternative Bet: Moicano at 1.57.

Kevin Holland (1.89) vs Reinier de Ridder (1.92) (Middleweight)

A classic striker versus grappler battle kicks off the main card.

An experienced UFC campaigner who once found himself in the top 10 and remains a tough out for most, Holland (26-12) is a lanky precision striker and showman. “Trailblazer”, with his 14 knockouts and eight submissions, is the perfect type of fighter to start the main card with a bang.

The problem is that De Ridder (18-2) is his polar opposite. Known for his grappling expertise, “The Dutch Knight” delivered in his much-anticipated UFC debut, trapping veteran Gerald Meerschaert to seal his 12th career submission.

Having claimed the middleweight and light heavyweight titles in ONE Championship, he’s a strong if not exciting addition to the UFC middleweight ranks and is exactly the type of fighter Holland has struggled against.

I expect De Ridder to control the fight with his grappling and come out victorious, most likely by submission.

Prediction: De Ridder by submission.
Best Bet: De Ridder at 1.92.
Alternative Bet: De Ridder by submission at 4.30.