UFC 310 Pantoja vs Asakura Predictions

The flyweight title hangs in the balance as Alexandre Pantoja defends against dangerous promotional newcomer Kai Asakura in the main event of UFC 310 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.  

Undefeated welterweight stars Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry meet in a No. 1 contender co-headliner, while former interim heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane faces Alexander Volkov in the featured bout.

Plus, two featherweight fights are on tap, one of which will see Bryce Mitchell and Kron Gracie battle it out, and the other will see Nate Landwehr and Dooho Choi collide.

MAIN CARD (from 5 AM Sunday SA time):

Alexandre Pantoja (1.37) v Kai Asakura (3.15) (Flyweight Championship)

An intriguing clash for the flyweight championship headlines the UFC’s final pay-per-view of the year.

Pantoja (28-5) further entrenched himself as the best flyweight in the world with his second title defence in May. Returning home to main event UFC 301 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, “The Cannibal” was locked in a hard-fought battle against Steve Erceg.

Anybody’s fight with the combatants having won two rounds each going into the fifth and final round, Pantoja showed his champion qualities to finish strong and triumph by decision.

Now he faces an all-new threat in Asakura (21-4), a special talent and terror out of Tokyo. How special is he? Well, he’s just the third fighter in the modern era to receive a title shot in his UFC debut.

A former two-time RIZIN bantamweight champion, Asakura is a potent predator with a championship pedigree. An explosive, flashy striker, he boasts 16 finishes, 13 of which are knockouts.

The 31-year-old holds notable wins over current top-10 UFC flyweight contender Manel Kape and former UFC flyweight title challenger Kyoji Horiguchi.

Last time out, he reclaimed his RIZIN bantamweight belt with a second-round TKO of Juan Archuleta last December and plans to turn the UFC flyweight division on its head.

As for Pantoja, he’s looking to continue to build his legacy as one of the best flyweights the UFC has ever seen.

The Brazilian is an exceptional grappler but it’s his well-roundedness that makes him the standard of excellence at 125 pounds. His complete game is reflected in his record, with the 34-year-old having eight wins by knockout, 10 by submission and 10 by decision.

At the peak of his powers, the champion is on a six-fight win streak and will tie former champion Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez for the most wins in flyweight history with 13 with a third successful title defence this weekend.

Asakura is an exciting addition to the flyweight division and has the power to stop Pantoja if he connects with something big cleanly. That said, he hasn’t fought at 125 pounds in seven years as he’s been competing 10 pounds north at bantamweight.

We don’t know how much the weight cut will take out of him but we do know seasoned flyweights couldn’t hold a candle to the all-action style and all-round ability of Pantoja. Therefore, the champion should retain, most likely by decision but possibly by submission.

Prediction: Pantoja by decision.

Best Bet: Pantoja by decision at 3.75.

Alternative Bet: Over 2.5 rounds at 1.68.

Shavkat Rakhmonov (1.26) v Ian Machado Garry (3.95) (Welterweight)

A welterweight title shot is on the line in the co-headlining battle of unbeaten contenders.

Third-ranked Rakhmonov was originally scheduled to face Belal Muhammad for the title in the main event. However, the champion was ruled out of the fight due to a toe infection, prompting the promotion to rebook Rakhmonov and elevate the flyweight title fight to the headlining slot.

Seventh-ranked Machado Garry accepted the fight after first being slated to headline next weekend’s UFC Tampa card against Joaquin Buckley. He’d previously called for a clash with the predatory Rakhmonov and the highly skilled Irishman now gets his wish.

Rakhmonov is a natural-born killer out of Kazakhstan. He’s a perfect 18-0 with all of his wins coming by stoppage (eight knockouts and 10 submissions). Many believe “Nomad” is the uncrowned champion and he’s taken this fight with the intent to make a statement.

Ireland’s Machado Garry is a flawless 15-0 with eight of his wins coming inside the Octagon. Highly technical and uber-confident, “The Future” wants to follow in Conor McGregor’s footsteps and can earn a crack at the gold with a win over the division’s boogeyman.

Being a five-round fight, Rakhmonov won’t rush but he remains an aggressive fighter. He might play Machado Garry’s game of exchanging strikes on the outside for a while, but eventually, he’ll put his foot on the gas. His strength and grappling should prove too much for the Irishman.

Prediction: Rakhmonov by stoppage.

Best Bet: Rakhmonov by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Rakhmonov by submission at 2.80.

Ciryl Gane (1.26) v Alexander Volkov (3.95) (Heavyweight)

Giants in the heavyweight top five face off in a high-stakes rematch in the featured bout.

The pair were scheduled to square off in October but Volkov (38-10) was forced to withdraw due to injury. Now back to 100%, the Russian seeks revenge after dropping a decision to Gane (12-2) in their first fight, a five-round main event bout back in June 2021.

The Frenchman went on to win the interim title and bounced back from a disappointing loss to Jon Jones for the undisputed belt with a TKO win over Serghei Spivac last September. Gane is a special breed of heavyweight, one who moves like a middleweight.

An excellent kickboxer, second-ranked “Bon Gamin” is fast, light on his feet and super sophisticated. Those are huge factors in what promises to be a stand-up battle for the most part.

A resurgent Volkov has claimed four wins in a row. The towering “Drago” upset countryman Sergei Pavlovich by unanimous decision in June to extend his run, which includes finishes of Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexandr Romanov and Tai Tuivasa and can move one step closer to an elusive title shot with a win over Gane.

Third-ranked Volkov’s vast experience didn’t help him much in the first fight and Gane’s speed, mobility and silky striking should see him win the sequel on the scorecards as well.

Prediction: Gane by decision.

Best Bet: Gane by decision at 1.68.

Bryce Mitchell (1.12) v Kron Gracie (6.50) (Featherweight)

Jiu-jitsu masters meet in what could be a cracking scramble fest. Both men are coming off long layoffs and are desperate to break out of their losing funk, which sets the stage for a compelling contest.

Mitchell (16-2) returns for the first time since being brutally knocked out by former interim title challenger Josh Emmett last December. As far as UFC fighters go, “Thug Nasty” is one of the more out-there cats outside of the Octagon, but he’s focused and disciplined inside the cage.

He’s lost two of his last three fights, but it’s important to note those were against top competition in Emmett and current featherweight king Ilia Topuria.

Gracie (5-2) hasn’t fought since his loss to Cub Swanson last May and is on a two-fight skid. As a member of the legendary Gracie family, the 36-year-old is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist and has claimed all of his wins by submission.

A throwback, his problem is he’s so one-dimensional that if he’s unable to get an opponent to the ground, he’s little more than a sitting duck. It’ll be crucial for him to somehow play towards Mitchell’s ego and get him to grapple with him.

Mitchell, who has nine submission wins of his own, is well-rounded and that will prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Mitchell by decision.

Best Bet: Mitchell by decision at 1.50.

Nate Landwehr (1.74) v Dooho Choi (2.14) (Featherweight)

Fireworks will go off inside the Octagon when two warriors incapable of having a boring fight collide in the main card opener.

These two swing for the fences with bad intentions, so make sure you have your snacks and beverages ready so you don’t miss a second of what’s set to be an explosive clash.

Landwehr (18-5) hits like a locomotive, hence his nickname “The Train” and has won four of his last five fights, with all but one of those victories coming inside the distance. Most recently, he knocked out Jamall Emmers in May and plans on making it 2-0 in 2024.

Following a three-fight losing streak and a draw against Kyle Nelson, Choi (15-4-1) got back on track with a stoppage win over Bill Algeo in July to take his knockout tally to 12, three more than Landwehr.

“The Korean Superboy” will have a significant speed advantage and his in-and-out blitzes make him a tricky stylistic match-up for his American adversary and a juicy underdog.

Prediction: Choi by knockout.

Best Bet: Choi at 2.14.

Alternative Bet: Choi by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.75.