UFC 309: Jones v Miocic Predictions  

It’s the ultimate legacy fight between the best of the best as Jon Jones defends his heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic in the main event of UFC 309 at the iconic Madison Square Garden on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The co-headliner of UFC 309 is a mouth-watering five-round rematch between two of the leading and most lethal lightweights in the world in former champion Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler.

A second scrap at 155 pounds will see Mauricio Ruffy trade leather with James Llontop. Plus, undefeated phenom Bo Nickal squares off against submission specialist Paul Craig in a middleweight matchup and top-15 flyweights Viviane Araujo and Karine Silva face off.

MAIN CARD (from 5 AM Sunday SA time):

Jon Jones (1.16) v Stipe Miocic (5.55) (Heavyweight Championship)

It’s a dream match – the biggest fight in UFC heavyweight history – and it finally goes down this weekend.

The epic clash of the titans was supposed to headline last November’s event at the world’s most famous arena, but Jones suffered a horrific injury in training that’s kept him out until now.

Two of the baddest men to ever walk the face of the earth, Jones and Miocic are bona fide legends. Jones is the consensus greatest mixed martial arts fighter of all time, while Miocic is the best heavyweight in UFC history.

Something has to give in this seismic showdown and with both men likely to hang up the gloves after the bout, they’ll leave it all inside the Octagon in their war for the heavyweight championship of the world.

Throughout his career, Jones has been the perfect fighting weapon. An unbeatable force, the former long-time ruler of the light heavyweight division made it look easy when he submitted Cyril Gane in just over two minutes to capture the vacant heavyweight title last March and has never legitimately lost. 

His record stands at 27-1-1NC with 10 knockouts and seven submissions, with the only loss being a controversial disqualification defeat against Matt Hamill in 2009 for a 12-to-six elbow, which is now legal, while his knockout win over Daniel Cormier in their rematch was overturned to a no-contest after he popped for a performance-enhancing drug.

“Bones” became the youngest champion in UFC history when he stopped the legendary Mauricio Rua at the age of 23 in 2011 and ruled the light heavyweight division for eight years and 11 months before vacating the 205-pound crown and announcing his move to heavyweight.

After three years away, he returned with his new heavyweight frame and sliced through Gane to become one of just nine two-division champions in UFC history. His 19-fight unbeaten streak is the longest in UFC history, while he also boasts the most title fight wins ever with 15.

With a superhuman 84-and-a-half-inch reach, an Einstein-esque fight IQ and a willingness to do whatever it takes to win, Jones is an unprecedented puzzle that no one’s been able to solve.

Miocic, whose record is 20-4 with 15 knockouts, is a former two-time heavyweight champion and the type of complete, hard-hitting fighter who could finally defeat Jones. He holds the divisional records for most title defences (4), most title fight wins (6) and most performance awards (9).

A potent mix of precision and power separated Miocic from the rest and saw him seize the crown for the first time when he knocked out Fabricio Werdum while moving backwards back at UFC 198 in 2016.

He went on to become the first man in history to defend the heavyweight title three times, producing back-to-back knockout wins over Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos before shutting down Francis Ngannou to complete the historic hat-trick. 

After being stunned by Cormier in their champion versus champion superfight in 2018, he reclaimed the gold in the rematch the following year and cemented himself as the best heavyweight in UFC history when he defeated “DC” again to clinch the epic trilogy. 

He hasn’t fought since his knockout loss to Ngannou in their rematch in March 2021 and is now 42, five years older than Jones, so chances are he’ll not only be slower than he was in his prime but rusty as well.

With it being heavyweight fighting where one punch can finish things, you cannot count Miocic out. However, Jones is such a masterful mixed martial artist that it’s hard to bet against him.

He has size, including a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, skill, intelligence and nearly impenetrable defence that are second to none. Add the fact that his wrestling is a game-changer at heavyweight, and he’s set to shine one more time.

Prediction: Jones by submission.

Best Bet: Jones by submission at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Jones by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.20.

Charles Oliveira (1.40) v Michael Chandler (3.05) (Lightweight)

Don’t blink when two of the fiercest finishers in the lightweight division do battle in what promises to be an electrifying co-headliner.

The pair first met in a thrilling championship bout three-and-a-half years ago when Oliveira (34-10) rallied to knockout Chandler (23-8) in the second round to clinch the vacant crown.

“Do Bronx” went on to defend his belt once and is looking to get back on track after losing two of his last three fights to current champion Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan.

Meanwhile, Chandler’s set to compete for the first time since his submission loss to Dustin Poirier two years ago. Since then, “Iron” coached opposite Conor McGregor on The Ultimate Fighter and was set to fight the Irish superstar at UFC 303 before an injury to McGregor delayed the matchup even further.

No longer willing to wait for “The Notorious”, he’s betting on himself to avenge his loss to Oliveira and punch his ticket to either another title shot or a money fight against McGregor. One thing is for sure – this will be a barnburner for as long as it lasts.

Oliveira boasts the most finishes and most submissions in UFC history with 20 and 16 respectively. He also has the most performance bonuses in company history with 19. The Brazilian’s striking is crisp, and his jiu-jitsu is world-class.  

Chandler shares Oliveira’s seek-and-destroy mindset and has 18 career finishes (11 knockouts and seven submissions). He’s one of the most explosive fighters in the world with heavy hands and high-level wrestling.

The former three-time Bellator champion has been ultra-entertaining in the UFC, but his recklessness has cost him dearly on a couple of occasions. With Oliveira being the more technical fighter and calmer competitor when bullets are flying, I see him once again stopping the American.

Prediction: Oliveira by stoppage.

Best Bet: Oliveira by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 1.50.

Alternative Bet: Oliveira by KO/TKO/DQ by 3.15.

Bo Nickal (1.09) v Paul Craig (8.00) (Middleweight)

Undefeated wrestling phenom Nickal faces the trickiest test of his career in the featured bout.

A three-time Division I national champion and four-time All-American, Nickal has an unprecedented wrestling pedigree that has seen blown through his opponents without getting a scratch on him.

He’s 6-0 with a 100% finish rate (two knockouts and four submissions). Not one who works by the hour, his submission win over Cody Brundage in April was the first time he went into the second round.

Craig (17-8-1), a former top-15 contender at light heavyweight and middleweight, represents another step up in competition for Nickal. As a submission magician with 13 tapout wins, “Bearjew” is a compelling stylistic challenge as well.

It’s almost a given that Nickal will take Craig down, but considering how dangerous the Scotsman is off his back, Nickal cannot afford to make a mistake once on the ground.

Given his skills and experience and the big pay out a Craig upset offers, I expect him to receive some backing. However, Nickal’s methodical in everything he does and will be extra sharp and tight, which should earn him another submission win.

Prediction: Nickal by submission.

Best Bet: Nickal by submission at 2.80.

Alternative Bet: Nickal by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.68.

Viviane Araujo (3.15) v Karine Silva (1.37) (Flyweight)

We have ourselves a battle of Brazilians in the flyweight top 15. It’s a classic clash between a veteran and a prospect that can reignite the former’s career and further boost the latter’s rise.

Ninth-ranked Araujo (12-6) has been a staple in the top 15 for years and has mixed it up with some of the top names in the division, including Amanda Ribas and former champion Alexa Grasso.

At 37, “Vivi” is past her prime and is 2-4 in her last six fights, most recently dropping a decision to Natalia da Silva in February. She’s a tactician with good fundamentals and seasoned savviness. 

Eleventh-ranked Silva (18-4) is a streaking savage. The 30-year-old is 4-0 in the UFC and on a nine-fight win streak overall.

She lives up to her “Killer” moniker, with her triumph over Ariane Lipski in April being her first by decision. Dangerous on the feet and the ground, she has nine knockouts and eight submissions to her name.

Araujo is very defensively responsible. She’s only been finished once, early in her career before she made it to the UFC, so Silva will have to be satisfied with a decision win. 

Prediction: Silva by decision.

Best Bet: Silva by decision at 2.00.

Mauricio Ruffy (1.12) v James Llontop (6.50) (Lightweight)

Make sure you have the snacks and beverages ready by the start of the main card opener, so you don’t miss a second because it’s likely to end early and violently.

Ruffy (10-1) is a knockout artist on a roll. A member of the Fighting Nerds team, who are 11-1 collectively for the year, Ruffy announced himself in style in his UFC debut in May, knocking out Jamie Mullarkey in the opening round to stretch his win streak to five. An unpredictable power puncher known as “One Shot”, every single one of his wins is by KO.

Llontop (14-4) very much looks like a lamb being led to the slaughter. He’s a decent striker but has found life tough in the UFC, first getting submitted by short-notice replacement Chris Padilla in his April debut before being outpointed by Viacheslav Borshchev in August.

The pugilist from Peru will rue accepting this fight, especially on short notice. Bank on Ruffy to start things off with a bang.

Prediction: Ruffy by knockout.

Best Bet: Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.68.

Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.35.