UFC 308: Topuria v Holloway Predictions

It’s undefeated against unstoppable as Ilia Topuria puts his perfect record and featherweight gold on the line against Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 308 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker battles undefeated juggernaut Khamzat Chimaev in the co-headliner, with top-five light heavyweight contenders Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic facing off in the featured bout.

Plus, Lerone Murphy meets Dan Ige in a clash of top-15 featherweights and Shara Magomedov squares off against Armen Petrosyan at middleweight.

MAIN CARD (from 8 PM Saturday SA time):

Ilia Topuria (1.40) v Max Holloway (3.05) (Featherweight Championship)

The main event, scheduled for five rounds, is as exciting and compelling of a title fight as you can get.

It’s a clash of champions with featherweight king Topuria taking on the BMF titleholder in Holloway. The latter’s title won’t be on the line as it’s reserved for special circumstances.

It’s a prodigious talent who’s never tasted defeat against an all-time great, a power-punching phenom against an iron-chinned legend who’s never been knocked out.

It’s the present meeting the past to determine the future of the featherweight division.

A confident, new-generation killer, Topuria called his shot and delivered when he knocked out long-time 145-pound king Alexander Volkanovski to claim the crown in February.

Unbeaten, “El Matador” boasts a flawless 15-0 record and plans on slaying another superstar in the featherweight GOAT conversation to prove that we’re indeed in the Topuria era.

Always going for the kill, the highly skilled savage has only gone to a decision twice, in his UFC debut against Youssef Zalal in October 2020 and against Josh Emmett last June.

Sandwiched in between those victories were stoppage wins over Damon Jackson (knockout), Ryan Hall (knockout), Jai Herbert (knockout) and Bryce Mitchell (submission) before his stunning title triumph took him to 7-0 in the UFC.

Former champion Holloway, who ruled the division between 2016 and 2019 and made three successful title defences against the man he dethroned Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega and ex-lightweight ruler Frankie Edgar, has long been at or near the top of the featherweight mountain.

He’s only lost to one man at 145 pounds in the last decade, that being Volkanovski, who’s beaten him on the scorecards on three occasions, the last of which occurred in 2022. He’s won three in a row since, first turning back surging contender Anthony Allen before recording back-to-back highlight reel knockout wins.

The first saw him retire “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung last August and the second was one of the best knockouts in UFC history as he flatlined Justin Gaethje in the final seconds of their clash at UFC 300 in April to claim the BMF belt and improve to 26-7.

Known for his ruthless striking prowess and endless gas tank, Holloway holds the divisional records for most wins (20), finishes (11), knockouts (9), significant strikes landed (2892) and total strikes landed (3,097) amongst others. The fighting pride of Hawaii’s brand of violence is a bloody ballet as he glides across the cage and systematically picks an opponent apart with some of the best boxing in all of mixed martial arts.  

Given his recent knockout ways, it’s safe to say this is the most dangerous version of “Blessed” we’ve ever seen, one who has a lethal edge on top of his tactical acumen and unrivalled experience. Still only 32, he’s got plenty more fighting years left in him, and his class and craftiness make him too good to pass up at these odds.

Topuria’s a killer, but if the likes of Gaethje, Volkanovski, Conor McGregor, Charles Oliveira and Yair Rodriguez couldn’t knock out Holloway, I can’t see him doing it. On top of that, Holloway has elite takedown defence and looked so exceptional last time out that I’m tipping him to hand Topuria his first loss and reclaim the featherweight belt.

Prediction: Holloway by decision.  

Best Bet: Holloway at 3.05.

Alternative Bet: Holloway by decision at 5.00.

Robert Whittaker (3.00) v Khamzat Chimaev (1.40) (Middleweight)

Something has to give in the extremely intriguing five-round co-main event, which could determine the next challenger for the middleweight title after Dricus du Plessis’ expected rematch against Sean Strickland.

The pair were originally set to fight in June but Chimaev was forced to withdraw due to illness. Whittaker (26-7) instead faced Ikram Aliskerov, who he beat by TKO in the opening round to preserve his third-place ranking.

One of greatest middleweights of all time, “The Reaper” held the title from 2017 to 2019 and has only lost to two men at 185 pounds – Israel Adesanya, the man who dethroned him, and South Africa’s first-ever UFC champion Du Plessis.

If anyone has the skills and savviness to end Chimaev’s unbeaten streak, it’s Whittaker, a well-rounded warrior of the highest order. The Australian ace is the most complete middleweight in the world, with elite skills in every facet of mixed martial arts and no real weaknesses.

That said, Chimaev represents a tall order for the veteran with his scary power and overwhelming grappling. A flawless 13-0 with 11 finishes (six knockouts and five submissions), “Borz” is a freak of nature who ran straight through everyone put in front of him before his epic war with Gilbert Burns in 2022.

Last time out, he defeated former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman by decision, a feather in any fighter’s cap. However, I wasn’t too impressed considering Chimaev started to gas in the final frame of the three-round fight and the fact that “The Nigerian Nightmare” had stepped up on short notice.

Chimaev, ranked 12th, is a beast, but this is his first true test at middleweight and if he can’t get Whittaker out of there early, it could be a long night for him. Given Whittaker’s excellent takedown defence, conditioning and five-round experience, he’s well worth backing as the underdog.

Prediction: Whittaker by decision

Best Bet: Whittaker at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Whittaker by decision at 7.50.

Magomed Ankalaev (1.26) v Aleksandar Rakic (3.95) (Light Heavyweight)

No. 2-ranked light heavyweight contender Ankalaev (19-1-1) will look to cement the next title shot when he takes on fourth-ranked Rakic (14-4) in the featured bout.

Ankalaev is still upset after being overlooked for a championship opportunity earlier this month. Despite his ranking and the fact that he hasn’t lost since his UFC debut back in 2018, he was overlooked for a meeting against champion Alex Pereira at UFC 307.

Instead, the shot went to eighth-ranked Khalil Rountree Jr, who put up a heck of a fight but was ultimately knocked out in the fourth round. As a strong grappler, he feels he’s a nightmare matchup for “Poatan” and that the promotion is protecting the champion from him.

He’s had a previous chance at championship gold in 2022 but fought to a split draw with Jan Blachowicz. Now coming off a knockout win over Jonny Walker, he’s determined to make himself undeniable.

Rakic, meanwhile, aims to halt the first two-fight skid of his career. After back-to-back wins over former title challengers Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos, he suffered successive TKO losses to ex-champions Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka but can put himself back in the title picture by upsetting Ankalaev. 

Both men are technicians rather than terrors with Ankalaev favouring grappling and “Rocket” striking. It probably won’t be the most exciting fight, but Ankalaev will dictate terms and should come away with a decision win.

Prediction: Ankalaev by decision.

Best Bet: Ankalaev by decision at 1.86.

Alternative Bet: Fight to go the distance at 1.64.

Lerone Murphy (1.37) v Dan Ige (3.20) (Featherweight)

An unbeaten rising star collides with a grizzled veteran in this clash of top-15 featherweights.

England’s Murphy (14-0-1) started his UFC career with a draw against Zubaira Tukhugov before going on to win six on the bounce to climb to 12th in the rankings.

Full of intestinal fortitude, which helped him survive and recover from a shooting in 2013, he outpointed Edson Barboza in his first main event in May and looks to take down another stalwart in 14th-ranked Ige (18-8).

“The Miracle” is a slick, versatile striker and should have an edge in speed to go along with his two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage.

Ige, who’d long been respected as a fixture in the upper ranks of the featherweight division, reached legendary status in June when he stepped up to fight Diego Lopes on just four hours’ notice and pushed the streaking Brazilian every step of the way.

His decision defeat was anything but a loss as he’d gained so much more through his unprecedented gameness, including this high-profile bout on pay-per-view.  

Ranked 14th, the hard-hitting Hawaiian, who scored a first-round knockout win over Andre Fili in February, has won three of his last five fights and will have a power advantage, while his craftiness will also stand him in good stead.

Murphy’s not only fast with his footwork and hand speed but also pushes a high pace. He throws at a very high volume, landing 5.01 significant strikes per minute to Ige’s 3.7, and it’s this superior output that should see him get his hand raised.

Prediction: Murphy by decision.

Best Bet: Murphy by decision at 1.64.

Shara Magomedov (1.61) v Armen Petrosyan (2.36) (Middleweight)

Middleweights meet in what should be a striking battle in the main card opener.

Unbeaten in his 14-fight career with 11 knockouts, Magomedov has been making a name for himself in the UFC. “Shara Bullet” made his promotional debut on last year’s October pay-per-view in Abu Dhabi, beating Bruno Silva by decision, and has added wins over Antonio Trocoli (knockout) and Michal Oleksiejczuk (decision).

Petrosyan (8-3 with six knockouts) is 3-2 in his five fights in the UFC and is coming off a submission loss to former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Rodolfo Vieira in February. Thus, he’ll relish taking on a fellow striker.

“Superman” represents the toughest test yet for Magomedov but isn’t as prolific on the feet as his opponent. Add the fact that Magomedov has a two-inch reach advantage and that he’s fighting at home, and the decision should go his way.

Prediction: Magomedov by decision.

Best Bet: Magomedov at 1.61.

Alternative Bet: Magomedov by decision at 2.40.