UFC 307: Pereira v Rountree Jr Predictions

Light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira seeks to solidify himself as the Fighter of the Year with a third successive title defence against dangerous dark horse Khalil Rountree Jr in the main event of UFC 307 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

A second title will be on the line in the co-headliner as Raquel Pennington makes the first defence of her bantamweight belt against former titleholder Juliana Pena.

The next challenger for that title will be determined when Ketlen Vieira clashes with Kayla Harrison. Plus, former featherweight king Jose Aldo battles Mario Bautista and top-15 middleweights Roman Dolidze and Kevin Holland collide.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Alex Pereira (1.20) v Khalil Rountree Jr (4.80) (Light Heavyweight Championship)

Don’t blink when these two savage strikers trade leather in a main event showdown destined to finish by knockout.

A legend in kickboxing, feared knockout artist Pereira (11-2) has quickly become the biggest star in mixed martial arts in Conor McGregor’s absence, first capturing the middleweight title before moving up to his natural weight class and seizing the 205-pound strap.

The imposing Brazilian has been the most active champion in 2024, scoring big back-to-back knockout wins over former titleholders. First, he landed his trademark left hook to make quick work of Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 before he nearly decapitated Jiri Prochazka with a head kick at UFC 303.

Should the 37-year-old knockout the red-hot Rountree (15-5), it would be hard to deny him the Fighter of the Year award. Rountree on the other hand, has an opportunity to shock the world.

The American was a surprising pick as Pereira’s next challenger as he’s in lowly eighth place in the rankings and tested positive for a banned substance earlier this year. He notified the UFC that he’d accidentally digested the banned substance and received a two-month suspension, ruling him out of a scheduled fight with Hill. It proved to be a blessing in disguise as he was then granted a title shot and is determined to seize the moment.

Though fortunate to get the shot ahead of second-ranked Magomed Ankalaev, who hasn’t lost since 2018, it’s not that Rountree hasn’t put in solid work. The 34-year-old is on a career-best five-fight win streak, with four of those victories coming by knockout, including the last two over Chris Daukaus and former title challenger Anthony Smith. That said, this is a massive step up for him.

Pereira, a former Glory middleweight and light heavyweight champion, is one of the greatest strikers ever to grace the Octagon. A freak athlete with a superhuman aura, “Poatan” possesses frightening power and is as intelligent on the feet as he is destructive.

The champion has claimed all but two of his wins by knockout, with Rountree matching him with nine KOs of his own. The muscle-bound challenger is a southpaw with sound fundamentals and good blitzes, but he’s not nearly as technical and sophisticated as Pereira and has a two-and-a-half-inch reach disadvantage. Despite this, he’s fearless and vows to bang it out, saying he has no plans to shoot for a takedown.

“The War Horse” has a puncher’s chance and won’t die wondering, but like most, he’s not on Pereira’s level when it comes to pure striking. Bank on Pereira to close the show in style.

Prediction: Pereira by knockout.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.00.

Alternative Bet: Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.31.

Raquel Pennington (1.58) v Julianna Pena (2.42) (Bantamweight Championship)

The co-headlining battle for the bantamweight belt is 11 years in the making. In 2013, Pennington (16-8) and Pena (10-5) were members of Miesha Tate’s team and competed for a UFC contract with a group of fighters coached by Ronda Rousey on season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter.

Many thoughts the pair, who started rubbing each another the wrong way as roommates, would end up meeting in the final, but Pennington suffered a shock decision defeat to Jessica Rakoczy in the semi-final. Pena ended up winning the show, and more than a decade later, they’ll finally face off with the world title on the line.

Pennington has strung together a six-fight win streak including her victory over Mayra Bueno Silva to capture the vacant title in January. Seen by many as a journeywoman rather than a champion-calibre fighter, “Rocky” looks to silence the doubters against one of the true elite at 135 pounds.

Pena upset Amanda Nunes, the greatest female mixed martial artist of all time, to seize the strap in 2021 but hasn’t fought since she lost a one-sided decision to “The Lioness” in their rematch in July 2022. “The Venezuelan Vixen” aims to prove she’s the real champion and settle her beef with her American rival in one glorious swoop.

These women are absolute warriors. Fearless and as tough as they come, they will leave everything inside the Octagon. Pennington is a Jill of all trades – good everywhere without being exceptional. She’s a more technical striker than Pena and arguably has slightly better cardio.

Pena, on the other hand, is the harder hitter and has better grappling. She was happy to stand and trade with Nunes, so she’ll have no issue doing the same with Pennington, but her best path to victory is mixing it up and controlling/damaging the champion on the ground.

Pena’s two-year layoff is a concern, but she’s come back strong after lengthy absences before and is not only the better athlete, but I believe the better fighter as well. As long as she’s able to keep Rocky from finding her rhythm, Pena should prevail.

Prediction: Pena by decision.

Best Bet: Pena at 2.42.

Alternative Bet: Pena by decision at 3.75 or by submission at 7.50.

Jose Aldo (2.20) v Mario Bautista (1.70) (Bantamweight)

One of the all-time greats, Aldo (32-8) called time on his career in 2022 but an opportunity to fight on home soil saw him make a successful comeback in May.

The Hall of Famer and former long-time featherweight champion looked great as he outpointed Jonathan Martinez to jump straight back into the bantamweight top 10 and he seeks to slay another streaking contender.

Bautista (14-2), one place below the Brazilian icon in 11th, has notched up six straight wins, three of which were by submission. Primarily a grappler, his last two wins are by decision with the most recent over Ricky Simon in January being remembered for his improved striking.

Despite this, he’s not close to being on Aldo’s level on the feet and isn’t a knockout threat, while “The King of Rio” has legendary takedown defence, so I’m backing him all the way, especially as an underdog.

Prediction: Aldo by decision.

Best Bet: Aldo at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Aldo by decision at 2.80.

Ketlen Vieira (7.50) v Kayla Harrison (1.10) (Bantamweight)

Before the bantamweight belt is on the line in the co-main event, we have a title eliminator as No. 2 meets No. 3 at 135 pounds.

A fixture in the title picture for the longest time, Vieira (14-3) is an imposing figure who’d closed in on a championship opportunity with wins over former titleholders Miesha Tate and Holly Holm before she lost a split decision to Pennington last January.

She bounced back with a decision win over Pannie Kianzad and will punch her ticket to a title shot if she can stop the oncoming force that is Harrison (17-1). “Fenomeno” is a world-class fighter and a particularly elite grappler, so for her to be such a massive underdog speaks to the power and pedigree of her American adversary.

A two-time Olympic gold medallist in judo and two-time PFL tournament champion, Harrison stormed the gate of the Octagon and immediately established herself as a force in the division by rag-dolling and submitting future Hall of Famer Holm in her UFC debut in April.

An absolute juggernaut, Harrison’s strength and technique are on another level and should see her win by submission to set her up for a date with the winner of the co-headliner next year.

Prediction: Harrison by submission.

Best Bet: Harrison by submission at 4.00.

Alternative Bet: Harrison by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.10.

Roman Dolidze (2.20) v Kevin Holland (1.70) (Middleweight)

The main card kicks off with what should be an exciting fight in the middleweight division.

Holland (26-11) is always fun to watch. He’s a multi-skilled showman (14 knockouts and eight submissions) who always looks for a finish and talks to his opponent in the heat of battle.

After a two-fight skid at welterweight, he made a successful return to middleweight by picking up a first-round submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in June and is the favourite despite being five places below his Georgian opponent in the rankings at No. 15.

Dolidze (13-3) also rebounded from a two-fight losing streak in June, stepping up on short notice and outworking Anthony Smith at light heavyweight. A dense all-rounder (seven knockouts and three submissions), “The Caucasian” will bank on his power advantage, whereas Holland will rely on his superior speed and footwork.

The swifter “Trailblazer” has a four-inch reach advantage as well, which should help him get his hand raised.  

Prediction: Holland by decision.

Best Bet: Holland at 1.70.

Alternative Bet: Holland by decision at 2.75.