UFC 306: O’Malley v Dvalishvili Predictions

Two titles will be on the line at UFC 306, a pay-per-view spectacular the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion promises will be the greatest sports event of all time at the one-of-a-kind Sphere in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The UFC has spent over $20 million on the production of the Mexican Independence Day weekend event, also known as Riyadh Season Noche UFC, as they aim to set a new, previously unfathomable standard of a live sports event at the mind-blowing cathedral.

One of the biggest stars in mixed martial arts, Sean O’Malley makes the second defence of his bantamweight title against oncoming force Merab Dvalishvili in the main event, while flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and all-time great Valentina Shevchenko conclude their epic trilogy in the co-headliner.

Grasso headlines an elite army of Mexican fighters set to showcase their skills on the big stage, including Daniel Zellhuber, who takes on Esteban Ribovics at lightweight, and Ronaldo Rodriguez, who faces Ode Osbourne at flyweight. Plus, former featherweight title challenger Brian Ortega battles Diego Lopes in what’s bound to be a barnburner.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Sean O’Malley (1.76) v Merab Dvalishvili (2.10) (Bantamweight Championship)

It’s the ultimate clash of styles.

In one corner, you have the champion, O’Malley (18-1-1NC), a sensational striker who’s punched his way to the very pinnacle of the sport in electrifying fashion.

Charismatic and colourful, the 29-year-old’s rise has been similar to that of Conor McGregor’s. He has the It factor, bold self-belief and a flashy style that sees him either starch opponents or piece them up.

“Suga” put on a masterclass against Marlon Vera in the main event of UFC 299 in March, beating him from pillar to post over five rounds to defend his 135-pound title for the first time and avenge his only loss inside the Octagon. 

In the other corner, you have the challenger, Dvalishvili (17-4), the epitome of relentlessness in mixed martial arts terms. He’s a tireless wrestler the likes of which the UFC has never seen before.

In defeating former champion Petr Yan last March, the Georgian grappler lived up to his “Machine” moniker by setting a UFC record for most takedown attempts in a single fight with no less than 49.

He followed that up by dominating the great Henry Cejudo, the former Olympic gold medallist in wrestling and two-division UFC champion last time out in February to cement himself as the No. 1 contender and vows to maul O’Malley.

Unbeaten in his last seven fights, O’Malley is very light on his feet. Lean and lanky, his distance management, accuracy and shot selection are top tier and his unpredictability allows him to transform from a sniper into a berserker in the blink of an eye. 

The titleholder with his colourful hair is a showman and savage showstopper. Boasting wicked one-punch knockout power, a rarity at bantamweight, he has a dozen KOs to his name, including a title-winning one over Aljamain Sterling – a standout grappler and Dvalishvili’s training partner – and nine first-round finishes.

At 5’11”, he stands five inches taller than Dvalishvili and will have a four-inch reach advantage. This is crucial as this fight is all about whether the challenger can safely close the distance and grab hold of his American adversary.

Dvalishvili is a superhuman suffocater. He’s all about dictating terms and dominating opponents with his wrestling and heavy top control. With 13 of his 17 wins coming by decision, he’s a breaker of wills rather than bones as he simply never stops working.

The 33-year-old is on a 10-fight win streak and has defeated three former champions in Yan, Cejudo and Jose Aldo in his remarkable run to a maiden title shot. He’s got good feints to set up his takedowns, a great first-step explosion and countless ways to get his opponent to the ground.

This is a highly intriguing pick ‘em at the highest level. Can O’Malley keep the fight standing and cope with his challenger’s pace and pressure, and can Dvalishvili avoid taking serious damage from the machete and machine gun-wielding champion?

A key development in the lead-up to this main event showdown, scheduled for five rounds, came when Dvalishvili suffered a cut above his left eye in training roughly three weeks before the fight. Most fighters seek to conceal such sensitive information, but not Dvalishvili, who posted a video of the cut on social media, leading to UFC president Dana White calling him “next-level stupid.” 

To make matters worse, Dvalishvili took his own stitches out days later with a giant pair of scissors, therefore increasing the chances of the cut opening up during the fight. In a fight that could go either way, having a target like that against a sharpshooter of a striker is a weakness that tilts the scales in O’Malley’s favour.

Dvalishvili does get hit, so if O’Malley doesn’t knock him out, I see him slicing the cut open with perfectly placed shots for a doctor stoppage TKO.

Prediction: O’Malley by knockout. 

Best Bet: O’Malley at 1.76.

Alternative Bet: O’Malley by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50.

Alexa Grasso (1.74) v Valentina Shevchenko (2.14) (Flyweight Championship)

Grasso (16-3-1) was a 6.75 underdog when she shocked the world by dethroning the dominant Shevchenko (23-4-1) with a nasty rear-naked choke in the fourth round to become the first-ever female Mexican UFC champion last March.

The rematch, which headlined the first Noche UFC event this time last year, ended in a controversial draw after a disputed 10-8 final round for Grasso, which meant she retained the title. Now, after serving as coaches on season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter, they’ll finally settle the score in the UFC’s first female trilogy.   

For the first time in their rivalry, Grasso is the favourite. There’s still very little separating these lethal ladies. Grasso’s the better grappler and Shevchenko the superior striker, although, both are world-class across the board.

On a six-fight unbeaten streak, Grasso is a crisp boxer with good footwork and has shown she’s capable of standing with “Bullet”. Her grappling and, more importantly, ability to mix striking with takedowns are what’s served her so well in this series.

Widely regarded as the second-best female mixed martial artist of all time after former two-division champion Amanda Nunes, Shevchenko is a sharpshooter on the feet. As a second-degree taekwondo black belt, she’s more versatile than Grasso, who doesn’t throw a lot of elbows or knees.

The Kyrgyzstan ace will have to be more aggressive, though, if she wants to recapture the title as Grasso has the champion’s advantage and is the Mexican favourite, which could sway the judges in a bout expected to go the full five rounds.

A year on from their second fight, time is on Grasso’s side as the younger fighter by five years. Shevchenko doesn’t make many mistakes, but she made crucial errors in both previous bouts that allowed Grasso to get on her back and I feel Grasso will once again put forth a cleaner performance to put the rivalry to bed.

Prediction: Grasso by decision.

Best Bet: Grasso at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Grasso by decision at 3.00.

Brian Ortega (2.50) v Diego Lopes (1.55) (Featherweight)

The featured bout promises to be a barnburner as two ferocious and phenomenally talented featherweights face off.

The pair were originally scheduled to meet at UFC 303 in June, but Ortega (16-3) was forced out of the fight due to illness the day of the event. In an unprecedented pivot, Dan Ige stepped up on three hours’ notice with Lopes (25-6) agreeing to face the ever-game veteran at a catchweight of 165 pounds.

An all-action dynamo, Lopes prevailed by decision to stretch his win streak to four and once again has Ortega in his sights. A former two-time title challenger and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Ortega returned from injury in a big way by submitting ex-interim titleholder Yair Rodríguez in February and looks to secure another shot at the belt.

The No. 3-ranked contender at 145 pounds, Ortega is the division’s greatest grappler. “T-City” has eight wins by submissions and almost forced Alexander Volkanovski to tap twice in their title bout in 2021, while the southpaw’s ever-improving striking has earned him three knockouts.

Lopes is one of the most exciting prospects in mixed martial arts. After giving undefeated Movsar Evloev all he could handle in a short-notice losing effort in his UFC debut last May, he’s scored three straight first-round stoppages (against Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff), each faster than the last, before his win over Ige.

Ranked 13th, the electrifying Brazilian has flair, both on the feet and the ground. Aggressive by nature, he’s secured all but three of his wins by finish (10 knockouts and 12 submissions) and with neither man willing to take a backward step, this will be a slobber-knocker.

As good as Lopes has looked, it’s surprising that he’s the favourite given Ortega’s one of the absolute best at 145. He’s ultra-durable, calm in chaotic situations and a significant step up in competition for Lopes. At these odds, he’s a great pick.

Prediction: Ortega by stoppage.

Best Bet: Ortega at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Ortega by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 4.50 or submission at 8.00.

Daniel Zellhuber (1.43) v Esteban Ribovics (2.90) (Lightweight)

Exciting lightweight prospects will push for Fight of the Night honours in the main card’s second scrap. Both men have kicked on after unsuccessful UFC debuts and are looking to breakthrough on the big stage.

Mexico’s Zellhuber (15-1) has won three in a row since dropping his promotional debut, which remains his only loss. After a decision victory over Lando Vannata, “Golden Boy” scored a submission win over Christos Giagos at last year’s Noche UFC and picked up a points win and Fight of the Night bonus when he got past Francisco Prado in February.

Argentina’s Ribovics (13-1) also suffered the only loss of his career in his promotional debut and bounced back strong by outpointing Kamuela Kirk and sparking Terrance McKinney in just 37 seconds in May. “El Gringo” is a naturally dangerous fighter with a 92% finish rate.

What makes Zellhuber such a tough puzzle to solve is his lankiness and striking versatility. With a massive eight-inch reach advantage, he should control proceedings on the outside and get the better of Ribovics in a fast-paced affair.

Prediction: Zellhuber by decision.

Best Bet: Zellhuber by decision at 2.25.

Alternative Bet: Zellhuber at 1.43.

Ronaldo Rodriguez (1.70) v Ode Osbourne (2.20) (Flyweight)

Rodriguez (16-2) looks to kick-start the Mexican fiesta on the main card when he faces Osbourne (12-7) in a prospect versus veteran matchup.

Rodriguez is red hot, winning six on the bounce including his UFC debut in February. As he showed when he submitted Debys Bondar in his maiden Octagon appearance, “Lazy Boy” is a slick grappler and will be hell-bent on dragging Osbourne into his world on the ground.

Osbourne finds himself in a rut, having lost his last two fights. Inconsistent at the best of times, the five-year UFC vet is 4-5 in the promotion. With that record, he’s not in a position to turn down fights, which must be the only reason why he accepted this bout.

“The Jamaican Sensation” has painfully poor takedown and submission defence, which has seen him being tapped out four times, including in his last two fights. Rodriguez should make it a quick night by preying on that weakness.

Prediction: Rodriguez by submission.

Best Bet: Rodriguez by submission at 4.00.

Alternative Bet: Rodriguez at 1.70.