UFC 304: Edwards v Muhammad 2 Predictions

Surging forces take care of unfinished business when local favourite Leon Edwards defends the welterweight title against Belal Muhammad in the main event of UFC 304 at Co-op Live in Manchester, England on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

Edwards headlines a super crop of English fighters set to compete on home soil, which includes interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, who looks to prove a point in his first title defence against Curtis Blaydes.

Other British standouts on the main card are uber-popular lightweight Paddy Pimblett, who battles King Green,

top flyweight contender Muhammad Mokaev, who meets Manel Kape, and leading featherweight Arnold Allen, who goes toe to toe with Giga Chikadze.

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Leon Edwards (1.50) v Belal Muhammad (2.64) (Welterweight Championship)

It’s a rematch over three years in the making for the welterweight championship of the world pitting the two most consistent forces in the division over the past few years against each other.

Edwards (22-3) has been unstoppable since 2016, capturing the title with an all-time great knockout win over Kamaru Usman and defending it twice as part of a 13-fight unbeaten run to solidify himself as the best welterweight in the world.

Muhammad (23-3), meanwhile, is on a 10-fight unbeaten streak dating back to 2019. The pair met in an ill-fated clash in March 2021 when an accidental eye poke in the second round rendered Muhammad unable to continue, resulting in the fight being declared a no-contest.

Now, they’ll finally run it back with the 170-pound title on the line.

Both men are exceptionally well-rounded. Edwards is a striking tactician whose intelligence, footwork and angles make him a point-fighter extraordinaire. With solid grappling and takedown defence to boot, he’s an efficient if not explosive complete competitor.

Much of the same can be said of Muhammad. He’s not quite the kickboxer the champion is but he’s a solid, intelligent striker nonetheless. What makes “Remember The Name” so successful is his ability to mix striking and grappling seamlessly and relentlessly. Weaponising his cyborg-like conditioning, few can keep up with the pressure he pushes.

In that sense, he’s a lot like Usman, who Edwards beat twice, and Colby Covington, who “Rocky” defeated comfortably last time out, so he knows exactly how to outwork and outsmart a fighter like Muhammad.

Neither man is known for their finishing ability. Prior to his 2022 Knockout of the Year over Usman, Edwards hadn’t scored a stoppage since his win over Peter Sobotta in 2018, while Muhammad’s only stoppage in his last eight fights was a TKO win over Sean Brady last October. Last time out, he beat Gilbert Burns in a five-rounder.

Therefore, this is likely to go the distance. Muhammad will press forward, and I can see him winning a round, but Edwards is better everywhere and has the championship experience first-time challenger Muhammad lacks. That combination should see Edwards stay the king at 170 pounds.

Prediction: Edwards by decision.

Best Bet: Edwards at 1.50.

Alternative Bet: Edwards by decision

Tom Aspinall (1.26) v Curtis Blaydes (4.00) (Interim Heavyweight Championship)

Like the main event, the co-headliner is a rematch of a fight that ended unsatisfactorily.

The first meeting between Aspinall (14-3) and Blaydes (18-4) took place in July 2022 when the former suffered a knee injury seconds into the contest, which handed the latter a TKO win. It kept Aspinall out for a year and remains his only loss inside the Octagon. 

An absolute anomaly, Aspinall became the first-ever British UFC heavyweight champion when he knocked out Sergei Pavlovich to capture the interim championship last November. With the UFC dead set on having titleholder Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic face off for the ‘real’ belt later this year, Aspinall won’t sit idly by and will instead make a much-anticipated homecoming with a point to prove.

The 31-year-old is the total package and a pure predator with a 100% finish rate. His title triumph over Pavlovich, who’d come off six straight first-round knockouts, was his 11th KO victory, while he also has three submissions, including a straight arm lock win over Alexander Volkov, to his name.

As for Blaydes, he’s long been close to a title shot. Winner of three of his last four fights, the American most recently stopped Jailton Almeida in March to pick up his 13th knockout and finally gets a crack at championship gold. “Razor” is the best wrestler in the division with vicious ground and pound. His striking is constantly improving, however, he’ll rely heavily on his wrestling against the superior striker in Aspinall.

The British ace is a complete colossus, but arguably his greatest asset is his speed, which along with his distance control should help him stave off Blaydes’ takedown attempts. It’ll be a proper test of Aspinall’s strength and explosiveness but one he should pass, either by knockout or submission, to put the Blaydes chapter behind him.

Prediction: Aspinall by knockout.

Best Bet: Aspinall by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ.

Alternative Bet: Aspinall by KO/TKO/QD

King Green (1.76) v Paddy Pimblett (2.10) (Lightweight)

One of England’s other favourite fighting sons, Pimblett (21-3) will seek to stay undefeated inside the Octagon when he takes on vicious veteran Green (32-15-1).

“The Baddy” is a young and popular fighter who transcends mixed martial arts due to his charisma, exciting style and social media presence. He’s an absolute superstar in his home country and after scoring the biggest win of his career over former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson in December, he looks to take out another UFC stalwart.

Green has won three of his last four fights and is ranked 15th in the 155-pound division. He pummelled fellow veteran Jim Miller at UFC 300 in April and aims to teach “Spoiled brat” Pimblett a lesson. Green, who legally changed his name from Bobby to King, has heavier hands, whereas Pimblett’s strength is his grappling.

The younger man by eight years at 29, it would serve Pimblett well to push the pace and initiate grappling exchanges early and often to sap Green’s gas tank. Green is no slouch on the ground, but he’ll want to keep it standing, especially with Pimblett having a bad habit of leaving his chin in the air.

If Green checks his pride and stays composed as a fighter of his vast experience should, he ought to put an end to Pimblett’s unbeaten UFC run, much to the fans in Manchester’s chagrin. 

Prediction: Green by decision.

Best Bet: Green at 1.76.

Alternative Bet: Green by decision

Muhammad Mokaev (1.80) v Manel Kape (2.05) (Flyweight)

Another fighter who’ll have to keep his emotions in check is Mokaev. Undefeated at 12-0 with six of those wins coming inside the UFC, he has risen to sixth in the rankings and has the makings of a future champion.

He has revenge on his mind, though, after Kape (19-6) busted him open after head-butting and elbowing him in an incident at the UFC Performance Institute a few months ago, according to Kape’s training partner Jean Silva.

Ranked two places below Mokaev, Kape has that dog in him and is one of the rare knockout artists at 125 pounds with 11 KOs. A former RIZIN champion, “Star Boy” has the edge in experience and is on a four-fight win streak.

As heated as this rivalry is, Mokaev has always been cool, calm and collected as a competitor. Expect him to remain the cerebral tactician that he is and to come away with his unbeaten record intact.

Prediction: Mokaev by decision.

Best Bet: Mokaevat 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Mokaev by decision

Arnold Allen (1.37) v Giga Chikadze (3.10) (Featherweight)

The main card opener should be a fun fight on the feet between two top-10 featherweights.

After marching to an impressive 10-0 record, Allen (19-3) finds himself in a tough spot having lost his last two fights on the trot.

Former featherweight champion and current BMF titleholder Max Holloway handed him his first defeat where after he came up short against another top contender in Movsar Evloev in January. Both losses were by decision. Still ranked sixth, the explosive and well-rounded “Almighty” aims to course correct in front of his home crowd.

A dangerous striker with lethal kicks in particular, Chikadze (15-3) is ranked ninth and eager to ramp up his activity as he’s only fought once since a January 2022 loss to Calvin Kattar. That appearance saw tenth-ranked “Ninja” earn a decision win against veteran Alex Caceres last August

This fight boils down to who controls the range. The Georgian, with his kicks and four-inch reach advantage, will want to stay on the outside, however, Allen has the speed advantage and blitzing ability to get on the inside safely and go to work, which should earn him a popular victory.

Prediction: Allen by decision.

Best Bet: Allen by decision.

Alternative Bet: Allen by KO/TKO/DQ