UFC 290 Predictions: Dricus du Plessis’ Title Eliminator and Cameron Saaiman’s Shot to Shine

South Africa’s fighting pride Dricus du Plessis looks to punch his ticket to a middleweight title shot when he goes toe-to-toe with former champion Robert Whittaker at UFC 290 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The much-anticipated 185-pound title eliminator is the featured bout of the International Fight Week pay-per-view main card headlined by a championship doubleheader that’ll see Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez unify the featherweight belts and Brandon Moreno defend his flyweight strap against Alexandre Pantoja. 

https://www.central.bet.co.za/ufc/ufc-290-volkanovski-v-rodriguez-predictions-2023-07-06/

Before that, Du Plessis’ protégé Cameron Saaiman seeks to keep his perfect record intact when he takes on Terrence Mitchell in a bantamweight bout on the early prelims.  

Main Card (from 4 AM Sunday SA time)

Robert Whittaker (1.26) v Dricus du Plessis (4.10) (Middleweight)

Since bursting onto the UFC scene in October 2020, Du Plessis (19-2) has put South African mixed martial arts on the map and planted his flag among the middleweight elite. Unbeaten inside the Octagon, his five-fight win streak, which includes four finishes, is the longest active purple patch at 185 pounds.

His impressive rise to become the first South African to break into the top 10 of any weight class in the UFC didn’t go unnoticed by Israel Adesanya, who after reclaiming his title with a knockout victory over rival Alex Pereira in April, turned his attention to Du Plessis. 

Du Plessis’ claim that he’ll become the first fighter born and based in Africa to become UFC champion rubbed Adesanya, who was born in Nigeria but lives, trains and fights out of New Zealand, the wrong way and “The Last Stylebender” wants nothing more than to square off against the fighting pride of South Africa. 

For that to happen, “Stillknocks” has to get past the most complete 185-pounder on the planet. Adesanya may be the champion, and boasts two wins over Whittaker, but the Australian is the single toughest test in the middleweight division. 

Whereas Adesanya is a striking savant, Whittaker is the epitome of a well-rounded fighter. He’s phenomenal in every facet, has a tireless gas tank, Einstein-esque fight IQ and no real weaknesses. It’s why he ruled the middleweight landscape and has been the gold standard for so many years and is also why he’s the overwhelming favourite, despite Du Plessis’ hot streak. 

Such a Rubik’s Cube is “The Reaper” that his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya, the first by knockout in 2019 and the second by decision in 2022. No other middleweight has been able to defeat Whittaker, who’s set to be at his best as a win over Du Plessis will earn him another opportunity to slay “The Last Stylebender.”

Close to the perfect weapon (10 knockouts and four submissions), Whittaker’s one of the most cerebral fighters in the business, using supreme patience and precision to outwit and outpoint opponents. 

Du Plessis, in contrast, is a pure predator who goes for the kill from the jump. Brad Tavares remains the only man who’s gone the distance with the hard-hitting Hatfield-born fighter, who has eight knockouts and 10 submissions to his name. 

While aggressive, the 29-year-old isn’t reckless, but he’s willing to take chances, which is what he’ll have to do to pull off the upset. Well-rounded in his own right, he has a solid wrestling and judo background and is South Africa’s first-ever WAKO K-1 kickboxing world champion, but no one aside from Adesanya’s won a point fight against the master strategist from Down Under.

Du Plessis has what’s considered an unorthodox striking style, which is a good thing as it makes the ex-EFC double champion and KSW welterweight titleholder somewhat unique. It takes opponents time to figure out his rhythm and Whittaker’s no different.

He also has some slick throws that he hasn’t showcased inside the Octagon yet. Whittaker’s notoriously difficult to take down, so it’ll take something special and unexpected from Du Plessis to ground him. With that, though, comes the risk of ending up on bottom, as Du Plessis did against Tavares, which cost him a round. 

Having undergone nose surgery to correct the breathing issues many mistook for questionable conditioning, Du Plessis will be at the peak of his powers. 

Bold and brave, he’ll make this a fight. I’ve watched him since he made his professional debut and he’s never been content with the combat equivalent of a chess match. He’ll take the fight to his vaunted foe, which is exactly what he has to do, but he does leave openings on the feet and has a tendency to hold his chin too high. 

Sadly, from a South African perspective, a sharpshooter like Whittaker takes advantage of the smallest of openings and as much as I’d like to see Du Plessis prevail to set up a super showdown with Adesanya, that dream will be put on hold as the Australian triumphs by TKO. 

Prediction: Whittaker by TKO.
Best Bet: Whittaker by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10. 

Alternative Bet: As mentioned, if Du Plessis is to get it done, it’ll most likely have to be by stoppage, so get him by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 5.25.

Early prelims (from 12 AM Sunday SA time)

Cameron Saaiman (1.20) v Terrence Mitchell (5.00) (Bantamweight)

With his original opponent Christian Rodriguez ruled out through injury, Saaiman will make his third Octagon appearance against UFC debutant Mitchell. 

Late opponent changes are nothing new for the South African prodigy and the new match-up promises to be a banger as both men are natural-born killers. 

Du Plessis’ protégé is a perfect 8-0 with six finishes (five knockouts and one submission), while Mitchell – who’s 15-2 – has secured all of his wins inside the distance. In other words, the judges will be mere spectators in this one. 

A must-watch talent with a world of potential, Saaiman’s a seek-and-destroy type of fighter. He’s incredibly well-rounded and poised for a 22-year-old, his composure in the cage enabling him to stay smart, safe and disciplined. It also allows him to switch up strategically mid-fight if needed and overcome adversity. 

Since being hailed as “the future” by none other than UFC president Dana White after he knocked Josh Wang-Kim out cold on the Contender Series last August to become the then-youngest fighter ever signed by the promotion at 21, there’s been an extra level of expectation on Saaiman’s shoulders. 

“MSP” is expected to weave violent magic every time out and this fight is no different as he’s the heavy favourite. To that end, his first two Octagon outings were frustrating in that, while he kept his unbeaten record intact, accidental fouls took some of the gloss off his performances.  

In fact, it nearly cost him his last fight against Mana Martinez as he was docked a point after a second accidental low blow and edged out a majority decision. South Africa’s baby-faced assassin will be as determined to put this bogey behind him as he’ll be to close the show. 

In Mitchell, he faces a veteran 11 years his elder who came up short when he had his big chance seven years ago but never gave up on his UFC dream. 

The Alaskan ace was on season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter where he was knocked out by future interim title challenger Kai Kara-France. He’s only fought four times since that 2016 bout on the regional scene, and won all four. 

If you’re thinking that means he’ll be hampered by inactivity, think again. He’s fought twice this year, winning both by submission, and it’ll be on the ground where he’ll present the most danger. Saaiman’s coaching team headed by Morne Visser will no doubt be wise to Mitchell’s proficiency to take the back and sink in a rear-naked choke and will focus on movement. 

The former EFC bantamweight champion will have a significant speed advantage and will be coiled like a cobra. I’m expecting him to zap in and out and put the debutant down in style. 

Prediction: Saaiman by knockout.
Best Bet: Saaiman by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.62.
Alternative Bet: Under 1.5 rounds at 2.40.