UFC 284: Makhachev v Volkanovski Predictions

The two best pound-for-pound fighters in the world collide in one of the biggest fights in UFC history as featherweight king and local favourite Alexander Volkanovski moves up to challenge Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title in the main event of UFC 284 at RAC Arena in Perth on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

The interim featherweight championship will be on the line in the co-headliner with Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett going to war for the gold.

Three other Australian aces feature on the main card – welterweight wild man Jack Della Maddalena, who meets Randy Brown, hard-hitting heavyweight Justin Tafa, who takes on Parker Porter, and light heavyweight contender Jimmy Crute, who makes his return against Alonzo Menifield.

Pound-for-Pound Kings! 👑@MAKHACHEVMMA vs @AlexVolkanovski at #UFC284 this Saturday!! pic.twitter.com/HSUocQxiCl

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) February 6, 2023

MAIN CARD (from 5 AM Sunday SA time): 

Islam Makhachev (1.26) v Alexander Volkanovski (4.10) (Lightweight Championship)

Never before have the two pugilists at the summit of the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings squared off. Unstoppable forces in their respective divisions, Volkanovski (25-1) soundly defeated Max Holloway in their trilogy fight last July to cement himself as the greatest featherweight of all time.

The decision victory marked the fourth defence of his 145-pound title, extended his UFC record to a perfect 12-0, took his remarkable winning streak to 22, and saw the 5’6″ Australian phenom stand tall as the pound-for-pound king.

Makhachev (23-1) followed in close friend and former lightweight ruler Khabib Nurmagomedov’s footsteps by steamrolling his way to the 155-pound gold, hurting Charles Oliveira on the feet before submitting in the second round in October to seize the vacant belt. It extended the 5’10” Russian’s winning run to 12 and elevated him to second pound-for-pound.

The newly-minted lightweight champion proceeded to call out his featherweight counterpart, who was in attendance, and entered the Octagon for a stare-down as the super-fight was made official. Volkanovski has long harboured a burning desire to become a dual champion and will get the opportunity on home soil.

If he does, he’ll become just the fifth fighter in UFC history to hold two titles simultaneously. Conor McGregor (featherweight and lightweight) was the first to achieve the legendary feat, followed by Daniel Cormier (light heavyweight and heavyweight), Amanda Nunes (bantamweight and featherweight), and Henry Cejudo (flyweight and bantamweight).

Volkanovski’s City Kickboxing teammate Israel Adesanya was unsuccessful in his bid for double champ status, the then-dominant middleweight champion suffering the first loss of his career against light heavyweight titleholder Jan Blachowicz, who utilised his size advantage in the championship rounds to win the 2021 mega-fight by decision.

Makhachev’s a monster wrestler in the same mould as Nurmagomedov. He overwhelms opponents with his unmatched wrestling and sambo prowess and has a killer instinct that’s seen him stop his last five foes. Most of his 15 career finishes have come on the ground, 11 being submissions and the others mainly via ground-and-pound.

Volkanovski’s a short and stocky shark, a relentless pursuer who melts opponents with his non-stop pressure, high-volume and diverse technical striking, and complete skillset. He boasts 15 stoppages, the last of his 12 KO/TKOs coming against “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung last April. Before that, his last finish was in 2018 against Chad Mendez, highlighting how he’s evolved into a tactician.

This fight is much closer than the line suggests, but it does boil down to weight. Half the battle for team Volkanovski is on the scale. They would’ve taken every scientific and nutritional measure possible to turn the featherweight ruler into a peak lightweight warrior, one with enough size to hold his own when the inevitable wrestling assaults arise whilst maintaining his all-important speed advantage.

“The Great” knows all about weight issues. A pudgy rugby league prop not that long ago, his extraordinary transformation into the featherweight GOAT saw him lose a whopping 70 pounds (32kg). Now the challenge is to fight with 10 extra pounds of muscle.

To redesign the vessel of violence that Volkanovski is in just under four months is one thing. For him to get used to the added weight in combat is another. It takes time and I would’ve liked to see him get at least six months to dial everything in.

Nevertheless, he’ll still be the significantly faster and more fleet-footed fighter, even if he is a step slower than usual. Masterful movement has always been his greatest strength and it’ll be the key for him if he’s to become a double champ as he’ll most likely have to pick Makhachev apart – like he’s done to the who’s who of the featherweight division – for the full 25 minutes.

I fully expect Volkanovski to have his moments and win a round, or two. However, no one’s been able to keep Makhachev off them and the Dagestani will take him down at some point. Once on the mat, Makhachev will opt for position over submission as Volkanovski showed in the Brian Ortega fight that it’s almost impossible to tap him out as he somehow survived two deep chokes.

With his strength, size, experience, and world-class top control, Makhachev should be able to pin the local favourite down for extended periods, i.e. maximise every takedown, to retain the 155-pound gold by decision. 

Prediction: Makhachev via decision. 

Best Bet: Makhachev by decision at 2.80

Alternative Bets: If anyone can submit Volkanovski, it’s Makhachev. Get him by tapout at 2.65. 

Yair Rodriguez (1.58) v Josh Emmett (2.45) (Interim Featherweight Championship)

The co-main event is also scheduled for five rounds with the victor leaving Australia with the interim featherweight title and a unification date with Volkanovski later this year.

Second-ranked Rodriguez (14-3) is coming off a win over two-time title challenger Brian Ortega, while fifth-ranked Emmett (18-2) enters the clash on a five-fight win streak.

Rodriquez is one of the most thrilling and unpredictable strikers in the sport. Long viewed as a potential future champion, he’s shown his maturity in his last couple of fights, which cemented that the time has come for the mercurial Mexican to challenge for a championship.

Emmett (18-2), on the other hand, was never as highly-touted as “El Pantera” but could care less. A blue-collar battler, he’s quietly beaten one top contender after the other to force himself into the title picture. The latest of his five consecutive wins came over Calvin Kattar last June and was his third in a row by decision.

The stocky American is built like a refrigerator, solid everywhere, and hits like a truck. He’ll have the power advantage and is one of the toughest fighters in the UFC, having torn his ACL in the first minute and going on to outpoint and out-will Shane Burgos over three rounds back in 2020.

The 37-year-old will look to push a relentless pace and rip to the body to tire out Rodriguez, who’s the faster, more athletic, and younger man by seven years. In addition to the above, Rodriquez is a lanky striker; he’ll stand five inches taller than Emmett at 5’11”, will have a one-inch reach advantage, and knows how to maximise his range.

He lacks power but his timing and unpredictability make him a dangerous puzzle. In what’ll be a stand-up battle, Rodriquez’s greater arsenal of weapons will see him secure the interim strap, most likely by decision due to Emmett’s durability.

Prediction: Rodriguez via decision.

Best Bet: Rodriguez at 1.58.

Alternative Bet: Rodriguez by decision at 2.50.

Jack Della Maddalena (1.30) v Randy Brown (3.70) (Welterweight)

The most exciting and promising talent to come out of Australia since Robert Whittaker and Volkanovski, Della Maddalena (13-2) makes his pay-per-view debut thanks to three consecutive first-round knockouts to start his UFC career.

A swarming predator by nature, he’s on a 13-fight win streak with 12 finishes, including 11 knockouts, and his homecoming in front of a massive crowd will see him at his most dangerous.

Brown (16-4) is no pushover. He’s not as lethal as Della Maddalena but is more well-rounded and on a four-fight win streak, three of those wins coming on the scorecards.

The Jamaican’s natural gifts are what make him a challenging test as he’s massive for the weight class. At 6’3″, he’s four inches taller than his Australian adversary and will have a five-inch reach advantage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p–VBbAJLHc

Despite this, Della Maddalena will buzzsaw his way inside with controlled aggression and get “Rudeboy”, who’s been stopped twice inside the Octagon, out of there with his heavy hands.

Prediction: Della Maddalena via knockout.

Best Bet: Della Maddalena by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.86.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.86.

Justin Tafa (1.80) v Parker Porter (2.05) (Heavyweight)

Tafa (5-3) touches down on home soil and will throw with bad intentions. Neither man will ever break into the top 10; they’re periphery pugilists and as such, they’ll relish this priced pay-per-view spot.

Tafa’s wins are all by knockout whereas Porter (13-7) only has a 38% knockout ratio, which is unusually low for a heavyweight. It’s not that he grapples a lot, either. Rather, he’s a plodding striker who struggles to land clean on more athletic opponents. 

“Bad Man” is exactly that and a southpaw to boot, which will make it even more difficult for Porter to repel the incoming threat. As the faster, more agile fighter, Tafa will put Porter away.

Prediction: Tafa via knockout.

Best Bet: Tafa by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.65. 

Alternative Bets: Tafa at 1.80.

Jimmy Crute (1.52) v Alonzo Menifield (2.60) (Light Heavyweight)

Returning Aussie Crute (12-3) hopes to kick off the main card with a bang following a year layoff. He’s on a two-fight losing streak but enters as the favourite as one of those losses was to current champion Jamahal Hill and the other was due to a freak leg injury.

Menifield (13-3) has notched up back-to-back knockout wins during Crute’s time away and is hoping to break into the light heavyweight rankings for the first time at 35. He’s a KO artist with 10 victories via strikes and if he is to spoil Crute’s comeback, it’ll have to be by stoppage.

That’s because “Atomic” has been guilty of gassing out early in fights. Twelfth-ranked Crute’s camp will be well aware of this, as well as the fact that Menifield will be aiming to entice him into a brawl.

The 26-year-old won’t take the bait and as the superior grappler, he’ll wait for his opening, take the fight to the ground, sap Menifield’s energy, and get the finish, either by submission or ground-and-pound.  

Prediction: Crute via stoppage.

Best Bet: Crute by KO/TKO/submission/DQ at 1.86.

Alternative Bet: Crute by submission at 3.25.