UFC 283: Teixeira v Hill Predictions

Two titles hang in the balance as the UFC returns to Brazil for the first time in three years with a blockbuster card to kick-start their 2023 pay-per-view offering on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro will be rocking as local favourite Glover Teixeira looks to make a triumphant homecoming when he takes on the surging Jamahal Hill for the vacant light heavyweight championship in the main event. 

History will be made in the co-headliner of UFC 283 as another returning hero, flyweight titleholder Deiveson Figueiredo and interim champion Brandon Moreno conclude the first-ever quadrilogy for undisputed gold.    

Three more Brazilian standouts feature on the main card – ex-welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns, who meets Neil Magny, former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade, who faces Lauren Murphy, and Johnny Walker, who battles Paul Craig in a clash of light heavyweight finishers. 

MAIN CARD (from 5 AM Sunday SA time): 

Glover Teixeira (2.20) v Jamahal Hill (1.71) (Light Heavyweight Championship)

The young, hungry kid that left Brazil decades ago to chase his UFC dream returns as a legend. An evergreen warrior with an indomitable spirit, Teixeira (33-8) did the unthinkable when he submitted Jan Blachowicz in 2021 to become the oldest first-time champion in UFC history. 

The 43-year-old lost the belt but his legend grew as he went blow for blow with Jiri Prochazka in one of the greatest title fights in UFC history last June. Both men had opportunities to finish the other and won two rounds going into the fifth where the MMA madness saw Prochazka sync in a last-minute rear-naked choke.

Prochazka vacated the title due to a serious shoulder injury last November and the belt remained unclaimed after Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev fought to a split draw in December. Irritated by the championship dud, UFC president Dana White broke tradition at the post-event press conference by announcing Teixeira versus Hill (11-1) there and then.

It’s a fight that’s sure to deliver with both men being aggressive fighters. Teixeira, who’d won six straight before his loss to Prochazka, is a lethal finisher with 18 knockouts and 10 submissions to his name while Hill’s last five wins have all come by knockout. 

Those numbers accurately reflect that Teixeira is the more complete competitor whereas “Sweet Dreams” is a rangy striker with bazooka-like power who’s come of age during his current three-fight win streak. His knockout of Johnny Walker made our 2022 top 10 list and his fourth-round TKO of former title challenger Thiago Santos showed he’s ready to battle the very best. 

As the younger man by a full 12 years, the bigger man (two inches taller at 6’4″), the faster and the more athletic man, it’s understandable why Hill’s the favourite. “The Brazilian Pit Bull” pays no mind to odds – he was the underdog in his last four and won all but one. 

Hill’s clearest path to victory is by knockout and that’s no easy feat. In 11 years of fighting the cream of the crop, only the late Anthony Johnson (in 2016) and Alexander Gustafsson (in 2017) have managed to KO Teixeira, whose superhuman toughness was on full display in the war with Prochazka.  

Teixeira has more tools and is a decorated craftsman. He has the crisp boxing to score a KO or TKO, the conditioning and fight IQ to score a decision and arguably most important of all, a massive advantage on the ground. Hill’s lone career loss to Paul Craig in 2021 was the result of the Scotsman’s grappling prowess and Teixeira’s a second-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.

Hill has a three-inch reach advantage to work with and the fight comes down to whether or not Teixeira can close the distance. He gave up four inches in this department to Prochazka but will want to avoid the damage he took in that epic battle.

His vast experience at the highest level, the years spent on the mats to completely round out his game and his mastery of putting it all together on fight night, an ability acquired only through decades of combat, are what’s fuelled Teixeira’s golden resurgence. 

Add his tireless gas tank and granite chin and he’s a live dog. With his tactical prowess and technique, Teixeira has the smarts and skills to sidestep the KO punch, take the towering Hill off his feet and sink in a submission or ground and pound his way to a second fairy-tale title win in front of his passionate home crowd. 

Prediction: Teixeira via submission. 

Best Bet: Teixeira at 2.20. 

Alternative Bets: Teixeira by submission at 3.25. 

Deiveson Figueiredo (2.05) v Brandon Moreno (1.80) (Flyweight Championship)

There have been trilogies, but never have rivals faced off in four clashes inside the Octagon. That’s how evenly-matched the co-headliners are. The pair fought to a draw in December 2020, Moreno won the rematch by third-round submission in June 2021 and Figueiredo reclaimed the title by decision last January. 

All three were epic encounters and the only thing that’s certain in this legendary back-and-forth rivalry is that the fourth will be a thriller as well. It was a pick’em at 1.90 both ways before the line gradually moved in Moreno’s favour at the start of fight week.

After losing the title to Figueiredo (21-2-1) in the third fight, Moreno (20-6-2) finished Kai Kara-France in the third round last July to win the interim title and, more importantly, seal a historic fourth showdown with Figueiredo to crown the undisputed champion and end the rivalry once and for all. 

Figueiredo hasn’t fought since the third fight due to hand injuries. That could be a factor, both ring rust and possibly reinjuring that right hand, which is one of his main weapons. 

Big and scary for the weight class, the Brazilian is a brutaliser with nine knockouts and eight submissions. He has the punching power and strength advantage but has been unable to finish his durable Mexican foil, who’s never been stopped.

Moreno’s the faster fighter with fleeter footwork. He looked sensational in his win over Kara-France, his fourth by TKO, while Figueiredo is one of 11 men he’s submitted. “Deus Da Guerra” had weight-cutting issues going into that fight that ended in him tapping, and the way he bounced back highlighted how he’d addressed that issue. 

Also evident in his triumphant performance in the third fight was the improvements he’d made by bringing former two-division champion Henry Cejudo into his camp. He was wiser to Moreno’s flash entries and more disciplined on the feet. That’ll keep him safe and see him land on “The Assassin Baby” to win a second successive decision.

Prediction: Figueiredo via decision.

Best Bet: Figueiredo at 2.05.

Alternative Bet: Figueiredo by decision at 3.50.

Gilbert Burns (1.21) v Neil Magny (4.80) (Welterweight)

Big favourite Burns (20-5) is coming off an all-time classic three-fight war with Khamzat Chimaev. As a long-time top-five welterweight and former title challenger, “Durinho” is a proven and respected member of the 170-pound elite but he became a legend in his battle with Chimaev, making the monster look mortal with many believing Burns should’ve gotten the decision. 

This, though, will be a technical fight. Magny (27-9), seven places below Burns in the rankings at No 12, is good enough, big enough (6’3″ – Burns is 5’10”), long enough (nine-inch reach advantage) and experienced enough (his 20 wins inside the Octagon is the most in welterweight history) that Burns won’t barrel through him. 

As a multi-time jiu-jitsu world champion, Burns will look to latch onto the long limbs of Magny, who has four submission losses on his record. The submission prop is enticing, but a decision is more likely and also pays out well.

Prediction: Burns via decision.

Best Bet: Burns by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Burns by submission at 3.25.

Lauren Murphy (4.70) v Jessica Andrade (1.21) (Flyweight)

Andrade (23-9) is a little killer and the chorus of cheers from her home fans will pour gasoline on her fire. The former strawweight queen is a Mike Tyson-like savage; her last three wins all came in the first round and she boasts 17 finishes in all (nine knockouts and eight submissions).

Murphy (16-5) is a gritty grinder. Though technical and wily, she doesn’t have the power to keep the pit bull that is Andrade off her. “Lucky” has legendary toughness; her only stoppage loss was to dominant champion Valentina Shevchenko in 2021, but at 39, she’s set to be mauled by “Bate Estaca.”

Prediction: Andrade via knockout.

Best Bet: Andrade by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.50. 

Alternative Bets: Andrade by first-round KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50 or in round one at 3.50.

Paul Craig (2.60) v Johnny Walker (1.52) (Light Heavyweight)

A classic clash of styles gets the main card underway. One of the rare specialists left in modern MMA, ninth-ranked Craig (16-5-1) is a submission magician. He pulls guard relentlessly and goes to work like an octopus. 

His fights are unique and always entertaining. Well, aside from his decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir, who defused his attacks and snapped the Scot’s six-fight unbeaten streak last time out. All of his wins are by stoppage, including 13 submissions, and all but his last loss were by finish, so he’s the definition of a kill-or-be-killed fighter.

Twelfth-ranked Walker (19-7) has the same mindset. He’s only gone to the scorecards twice. A towering striker, 15 of his 18 finishes are knockouts. As valuable as his six-inch reach advantage is his unpredictability. One never knows what he’ll throw next, which along with his range, should see the local favourite score another KO. 

Prediction: Walker via knockout.

Best Bet: Walker by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Walker in round one at 2.50.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.