UFC 281: Adesanya v Pereira Predictions

The world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion returns to Madison Square Garden with a stacked UFC 281 card headlined by a championship double-header on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

In the main event, Nigerian-born superstar Israel Adesanya will seek to slay his boogeyman when he puts his middleweight championship on the line against lethal kickboxer Alex Pereira. 

Strawweight queen Carla Esparza faces former champion Zhang Weili in the co-headliner at the world’s most famous arena while a third blockbuster bout will see Dustin Poirier collide with Michael Chandler in a much-anticipated clash of legendary lightweights. 

One of the greats Frankie Edgar will make his last walk to the Octagon to face Chris Gutierrez in his retirement bout at bantamweight and Dan Hooker returns to lightweight for what promises to be an exciting main card-opening clash against Claudio Puelles.

MAIN CARD (from 5 AM Sunday SA time):

Israel Adesanya (1.48) v Alex Pereira (2.75) (Middleweight Championship)

Adesanya’s always chased the toughest possible challenges, from freak of nature Yoel Romero and then-unbeaten Paulo Costa to moving up a weight class to face light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz.

Now, “The Last Stylebender” (23-1) faces a haunting ghost from the past, the one man who’s proved to be his kryptonite in the most devastating fashion imaginable. 

At UFC 276 in July, Pereira (6-1) starched Sean Strickland – who’d strung together a six-fight win streak over four years – in just two-and-a-half minutes before Adesanya defended his title for a fifth time with a decision victory over Jared Cannonier in the main event.

With that, it was confirmed. The two former kickboxing rivals would resume hostilities, this time in a mixed martial arts war inside the Octagon for the UFC middleweight title. The pair fought twice in kickboxing contests, with Pereira prevailing on both occasions. 

The intimidating Brazilian won the first fight by decision in 2016 and brutally knocked out Adesanya in the rematch the following year. In 79 pro kickboxing bouts (75-4) and 24 fights into his MMA career, it remains the only knockout loss of Adesanya’s career. 

With his warrior spirit, the Nigerian-born and New Zealand-bred champion welcomes the opportunity to vanquish his boogeyman on the big stage at MSG and it’s a fight he needs, not only for vengeance but also to win back the favour of many MMA fans whose cheers have turned to groans as he’s gone from an exciting and aggressive rising star to a low-risk, defensive-minded champion. 

This switch in style and mentality saw his last three wins – over Marvin Vettori, Robert Whittaker and Cannonier – all come by decision and while they were rather dire, they consolidated his status as the best middleweight on the planet. 

Undefeated in 23 fights at 185 pounds, with his only loss coming to 205-pound king Blachowicz, he won’t veer from his methodical style but this promises to be a different fight as he doesn’t have the overwhelming striking and reach advantage he has over all of his opponents.

Pereira will be calculated as well but because he’s even taller and just as skilled on the feet, he’ll press and ask questions of Adesanya that none of his previous opponents did. It’ll be a super tense title tilt in which one wrong step can mean the end of the fight. 

Adesanya doesn’t have the one-punch knockout power Pereira does, but his timing and precision have earned him 15 knockouts, the flawless felling of Costa in 2020 being the most recent. His big advantage in this fight is his experience as Pereira’s only had seven MMA fights and just three in the UFC. 

The former Glory middleweight and light heavyweight champion’s won six in a row and all but one by KO, with his lone loss coming by submission in his debut in 2015. He’ll be fighting Adesanya’s ego to get him to essentially keep it a kickboxing bout but “Izzy” would be wise to incorporate a few takedown attempts just to give his rival something extra to think about.   

“Poatan” is an anomaly and his two kickboxing wins over Adesanya make him the best value underdog yet in an Adesanya fight. However, this is an MMA fight and Adesanya will draw on his experience to outwit and outpoint Pereira. 

Prediction: Adesanya via decision. 

Best Bet: Adesanya by decision at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.00.

Carla Esparza (3.65) v Zhang Weili (1.31) (Strawweight Championship)

The more things change, the more they stay the same. That perfectly sums up the co-headlining title fight. The UFC’s first-ever strawweight queen is back on the throne and the first defence in her second reign is an old-school striker versus grappler battle.

A gold-blooded member of a dying breed of specialists in modern MMA, Esparza (19-6) used her dominant wrestling to staple Rose Namajunas to the mat and grind out a split decision in May to recapture the crown. It was a full circle moment, coming over seven years after Esparza had submitted “Thug” to become the inaugural 115-pound queen.

"It definitely takes two to dance."

Carla Esparza (@CarlaEsparza1) is confident that Zhang Weili will bring out her best at #UFC281 🔊⬆️

— UFC News (@UFCNews) November 8, 2022

On a six-fight win streak, with five of those coming by decision, “Cookie Monster” may be one-dimensional but she’s mastered her craft. She’s relentless with her takedown attempts and while she’s amassed four knockouts (mostly by ground-and-pounds) and four submissions over the course of her career, she mainly maintains top position on the ground.    

Zhang (22-3) is the polar opposite. She’s a 5’4″ stick of dynamic who chases finishes with controlled aggression and great proficiency (11 knockouts and seven submissions). “Magnum” made history of her own when she became the first-ever Chinese UFC champion with a first-round knockout of Jessica Andrade in 2019 and her powerful and dynamic striking saw her starch Joanna Jedrzejczyk with a spinning back fist in June to earn this opportunity.

Jedrzejczyk was the woman who dethroned Esparza the first time. Unable to take the Polish buzzsaw down, Esparza was a sitting duck and endured a beat down until the ref intervened near the end of the second round and the same fate awaits her as Zhang has the strength and technique to stuff the champion’s takedown attempts and pummel her to regain the gold.

Prediction: Zhang via TKO.

Best Bet: Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Under 4.5 rounds at 1.83.

Dustin Poirier (1.47) v Michael Chandler (2.80) (Lightweight)

The featured bout not only has Fight of the Night written all over it but could be the best banger of the year. Two of the top and most exciting lightweights in UFC history, they’ll bite down on their mouthpiece and go to war. 

Poirier (28-7), ranked second, has the crispest boxing in the 155-pound division. Everything he throws is precise and his rise as a future Hall of Famer has seen his fight IQ reach the highest plane. 

With good leg kicks, takedown defence and submission skills to go with it, he’s defeated several former world champions, including Max Holloway to capture the interim title, Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez and most famously, Conor McGregor. 

He’s the only man to knockout “The Notorious” and beat him for a second time before coming up short in his second bid to become undisputed champion. 

On both of his biggest nights, against Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2019 and Charles Oliveira last December, he was undone by submission, however, he won’t have to worry about that this time around as this promises to be a stand-up war.

Upon finally entering the UFC last year, Chandler (23-7) said he was here for a good time, not a long time and he’s lived up to that. He’s produced four thrilling performances, stopping Hooker, nearly winning the title against Oliveira, succumbing to Justin Gaethje in the 2021 Fight of the Year and most recently, knocking Tony Ferguson out cold with a front kick for the ages in May. 

A compact, tank of a lightweight, “Iron” is an explosive athlete and power puncher a la Mike Tyson and a standout wrestler. However, he’s abandoned the tactical side of his game that made him a three-time Bellator champion and fallen in love with the thrill of the hunt inside the Octagon. 

It’s sky-rocketed his popularity and made him a must-watch fighter but it’s also cost him dearly. He’s going to come out firing and Poirier’s poise, discipline and more technical striking in the heat of battle will see “The Diamond” KO Chandler similar to how he did Gaethje in their 2018 clash.

Prediction: Poirier via TKO. 

Best Bet: Poirier by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.20. 

Alternative Bet: Poirier by decision at 4.25.

Frankie Edgar (2.85) v Chris Gutierrez (1.46) (Bantamweight)

One of the best to ever do it, Edgar (24-10-1) is eyeing one last vintage performance to go out on a high at Madison Square Garden. 

In his prime, the former lightweight champion was a lightning-quick, perpetual motion punisher who couldn’t be stopped by a shotgun. His title wars with Gray Maynard in 2011 were two of the most unbelievable displays of heart and toughness in MMA history, Rocky movies come to life as he rallied to selvage a split draw and stormed back to score a knockout win in the rematch. 

“The Answer” then found success at bantamweight and worked his way up to a title match against Holloway in 2019, which he lost by decision. By then, he’d lost his speed and his legendary durability was next to desert him. He’s lost three of his four fights since by knockout, including his last two – scary stoppages by Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera. 

For his retirement fight, he’s drawn surging prospect Gutierrez (18-3-2), who’s not as dynamic and dangerous as the above-mentioned pair with a 50% finish rate (eight knockouts and one submission) but who’s on a tear of note. 

135: Chris Gutierrez

Just very solid leg kick oriented striker, feints a lot, good footwork, can outbox and also move forwards, good counters. pic.twitter.com/cznAUR2odT

— Feño (Ninja) (@fenoxsky) July 19, 2022

“El Guapo” is unbeaten in the UFC with six wins and a draw but is still an unfamiliar name to most. This is his opportunity to put himself on the map. At 31, he’s in his prime and a full decade younger than the decorated Edgar. It won’t end in disaster like his last two fights, but sadly for the legend, it will end in defeat. 

Prediction: Gutierrez via decision.

Best Bet: Gutierrez by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Gutierrez at 1.46.

Dan Hooker (1.68) v Claudio Puelles (2.25) (Lightweight)

Hooker (21-12) is back at lightweight after his ill-advised drop to featherweight in March saw him getting finished by Arnold Allen in the first round. Once in the 155-pound top five, the New Zealander’s dropped four of his last five and plummeted to 12th in the rankings. 

It’s important to note that all those recent losses came against top-five opponents. Always game and a dangerous, lanky kickboxer, this is a must-win for Hooker. For Puelles (12-2), it’s a massive step up in competition as he’s never faced a ranked opponent. 

“The Prince of Peru” is a submission specialist on a five-fight win streak. He’s quite unique as his slippery, scrambling style of jiu-jitsu has seen him wrap up three successive kneebar victories, most recently adding the legendary Clay Guida to his list of seven tapout victims. 

The fight hinges on whether Puelles can pull Hooker into his web. “The Hangman” would’ve focused on staying stationary and safe against funky rolling entries during training camp and I see him using his experience and three-inch reach advantage to get back in the win column. 

A knockout is tempting (it would be his 12th), but given how especially essential a win is here and the unorthodox grappling threat Puelles poses, Hooker could take minimal risks and ensure he comes away with the decision. I see him doing the latter, but I’m happy going with the bankable outright bet/money line. 

Prediction: Hooker via decision. 

Best Bet: Hooker at 1.68.

Alternative Bet: Hooker by decision at 3.15.