UFC 280: Oliveira v Makhachev Predictions 

The pursuit for gold in the world’s pre-eminent mixed martial arts promotion leads to Yas Island in Abu Dhabi where two titles will be on the line at a stacked UFC 280 on Saturday night, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

Headlining the star-studded event at the Etihad Arena is a clash for the vacant lightweight championship as uncrowned king Charles Oliveira collides with wresting juggernaut Islam Makhachev.

The co-main event sees the present meet the past to determine the future of the bantamweight division as Aljamain Sterling defends the belt against former two-time champion TJ Dillashaw.

The rest of the loaded main card consists of fights with title implications of one kind or another with ex-bantamweight champion Petr Yan squaring off against rising star Sean O’Malley, Beneil Dariush meeting Mateusz Gamrot in a tilt of top 10 lightweights and Katlyn Chookagian facing Manon Fiorot in a number one contender clash in the flyweight division.

MAIN CARD (from 8 PM Saturday SA time):

Charles Oliveira (2.60) v Islam Makhachev (1.52) (Lightweight Championship)

Surging forces on streaks for the ages square off in the much-anticipated five-round main event for the vacant lightweight title. 

A warrior with a world of experience, Oliveira (33-8-1NC) has always been capable of beating anyone on any given night, but something changed in 2018. 

Coming off a TKO loss to Paul Felder, the Brazilian bounced back with a first-round submission win over Clay Guida. It was the start of one of the most legendary runs in UFC history, one that continues to grow greater with each trip he makes to the Octagon. 

Oliveira’s reached his final form, evolving from a submission specialist to a well-rounded serial killer who’s piled one body on top of the other on his way to the top. 

He’s strung together an 11-fight win streak with 10 stoppages (three knockouts and seven submissions), Tony Ferguson being the only man to go the distance with him. It’s an unprecedented level of savagery that sees him stand alone as the UFC’s all-time leader in submissions (16), performance bonuses (18) and finishes (19).  

His crowning moment came when he rallied and knocked out Michael Chandler in the second round of their tilt for the vacant title last May and he retained the gold with a third-round submission win over Dustin Poirier in December. 

He continued his dominance in May, submitting Justin Gaethje in the first round, however, it was a hollow victory as he was controversially stripped of the title for being half a pound over the 155-pound weight limit.  

With the accuracy of the scale quickly brought into question and the emphatic nature of his win over Gaethje, Oliveira’s seen as the champion in all but name, with even UFC president Dana White calling him the uncrowned king.   

Makhachev has steamrolled his way to his first title shot. Touted as Khabib Nurmagomedov 2.0, his run of 10 straight victories mirrors that of his close friend and former lightweight ruler in terms of physical dominance.

Using the same beastly blueprint of overwhelming wrestling, the sambo master’s mauled each of his victims, nullifying their strengths and manhandling them to such a degree that he’s a perennial favourite, as he is once again here. 

His game plan is simple yet near-unstoppable – pin the opponent to the ground and either submit or unleash ground-and-pound until they can’t continue. He’s on a four-fight stoppage streak, all but his most recent triumph over Bobby Green in February coming by tap out. 

One of the big reasons why this is such a fascinating fight is because of Oliveira’s legendary submission prowess. He’s a special breed of Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, as his unrivalled finish rate attests, so Makhachev will have no margin for error if/when he secures a takedown.  

As good as Makhachev is at enforcing his style, he’s never fought a top-five opponent, his highest-profile scalp being that of Dan Hooker. In other words, he’s untested at the highest level and Oliveira’s been the best of the best over the last two years.

“Do Bronx” is the excellence of execution not just when it comes to grappling but striking as well. He’ll have a massive advantage on the feet and has more ways to win. Add his proven pedigree and I see Oliveira regaining the crown he never lost inside the Octagon via stoppage. 

Prediction: Oliveira via stoppage.

Best Bet: Oliveira at 2.60.

Alternative Bets: Oliveira by KO/TKO/DQ at 6.50 or by KO/TKO/Submission/DQ at 2.80.

Aljamain Sterling (1.57) v TJ Dillashaw (2.50) (Bantamweight Championship)

The co-headliner is an epic five-round crossroads clash in the bantamweight division that’ll either see Sterling (21-3) cement himself as the champion or former two-time titleholder Dillashaw (17-4) reclaim the throne. 

Sterling had “won” the gold in the worst way possible last March when Yan, who’d dominated the fight, landed an illegal knee to the head of a grounded “Funkmaster” in the fourth round, resulting in the championship changing hands by disqualification for the first time in UFC history. 

Called out for “milking” the situation by the majority of MMA fans and many of his peers, Sterling was widely considered a paper champion, however, he proved his doubters wrong in the rematch in April, controlling the Russian with his world-class wrestling to prevail via split decision.

Training under Matt Serra and Ray Longo, he fully relies on his grappling to get the job done and is riding a golden seven-fight win streak. He uses his strength and technique to take an opponent down from where he unleashes high-level jiu-jitsu. He has one of the best rear-naked chokes in MMA, has tapped out eight opponents and is confident he can do the same against Dillashaw, even though the challenger has never been submitted.

Dillashaw’s as well-rounded as you get (eight knockouts and three submissions) but what makes him extraordinary is his speed, footwork and sharp striking, which is fuelled by a genius-level fight IQ and tactical proficiency. 

As a result, it’s easy to forget Dillashaw was a Division I wrestler in college. Sterling was a Division III wrestler, which is not to suggest the former is better than the latter in this all-important facet but rather that Dillashaw has the pedigree – which has translated into an 86% takedown defence record inside the Octagon – to potentially keep it on the feet for the most part. 

Having gone five hard rounds in his split-decision win over Cory Sandhagen in his comeback fight after serving a two-year suspension for a failed drug, Dillashaw doesn’t seem to have lost a step. He’s one of the greatest bantamweights of all time and while Sterling is good and a credible champion, I’m not convinced his great yet.

Therefore, I fancy Dillashaw – especially at the current odds – to edge a hard-fought fight that probably goes the full 25 minutes. 

Prediction: Dillashaw via decision.

Best Bet: Dillashaw at 2.50.

Alternative Bet: Dillashaw by decision at 4.00.

Petr Yan (1.37) v Sean O’Malley (3.25) (Bantamweight)

Polar opposites face off with the winner likely to challenge the victor of the co-main event title fight down the line. O’Malley’s charisma, self-promotion and flashy striking have made him an attraction similar to a young, up-and-coming Conor McGregor years ago.  

Tall and rangy, he’s a Mr Gadget-like threat at bantamweight and will have a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over the Russian. With his colourful hair and personality, it’s easy to dismiss him as a hype machine but he has legitimate skills on the feet. 

Ultra-confident and unorthodox, he’s a buzzsaw who fearlessly incorporates spinning attacks into his whirlwind striking surges. Blessed with proven one-punch knockout power on top of that, he’s put together an impressive record of 15-1 with 11 KOs. 

The slight on “Suga”, and fairly so, is that he’s yet to beat an elite fighter. He failed his only true test in Marlon Vera, going down by TKO, and Vera’s a level below Yan (16-3), the former champion who’s bludgeoned legends like Uriah Faber and Jose Aldo (he has seven knockouts in all). 

Yan’s a stoic, no-nonsense predator with the best pure boxing in the division. Used to fighting taller opponents, he’s a master at closing the distance, doing so through seamless switch-hitting combinations and excellent head movement. 

Sandhagen is 5’11” like O’Malley with a similar reach and dynamic striking. He’s also a member of the 135-pound elite, whereas O’Malley’s ranked 12th, and Yan beat him in a five-round decision to win the interim belt and set up the rematch with Sterling, so “No Mercy” has the blueprint down.

That this is a three-round fight favours O’Malley as Yan has started slowly in the past, but recognising that time is of the essence, I expect him to come out firing. O’Malley’s a juicy dog and while he has the creative striking to possibly catch Yan, I question his heart. 

He crumbled under the only bit of adversity he faced in the Vera fight and the ruthless Yan will, above all, test his will. I understand why the bookies see Yan winning by decision as the most likely outcome, but I see O’Malley melting under the barrage coming his way.

Prediction: Yan via knockout.

Best Bet: Yan by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.00. 

Alternative Bets: Under 2.5 rounds at 2.65 or Yan by decision at 1.90.

Beneil Dariush (2.60) v Mateusz Gamrot (1.52) (Lightweight)

The stakes are high in this lightweight affair as Dariush (21-4-1), ranked sixth, and Gamrot (21-1), ranked seventh, set out to make a statement as to why they should meet the winner of the championship headliner. 

Whenever two great grapplers collide, it often turns into a striking duel and that’s what I’m expecting here. Make no mistake, both men will look for takedowns and lock up in clinch situations, but for the most part, it should play out on the feet. 

Both men pack a punch; Dariush has five knockouts and Gamrot seven and they have no qualms engaging in a fire-fight, so someone should add another KO to their tally.

Dariush is on a seven-fight win streak, his last victim being Tony Ferguson. He’s just that bit more polished than “Gamer” and with a one-and-a-half-inch reach advantage to boot, I’m banking on the Iranian. 

Prediction: Dariush via knockout.

Best Bet: Dariush at 2.60.

Alternative Bet: Dariush by KO/TKO/DQ at 8.00.

Katlyn Chookagian (2.70) v Manon Fiorot (1.50) (Flyweight)

Perennial top contender Chookagian (18-4) puts her No 1 ranking on the line against the fresh, fierce force of the flyweight division in the main card opener. 

Chookagian’s as technically sound a striker as they come. As a lanky tactician, “Blonde Fighter” is a point-fighter of the highest order with all but three of her wins coming by decision. At 5’9″, she’ll benefit from a two-inch height and three-inch reach advantage.

Fiorot (9-1) has the firepower Chookagian lacks. Her heavy hands have earned her seven knockouts and the nickname “Beast.” Unbeaten in the UFC ahead of her fifth walk to the Octagon, she settled for decision wins in her last two bouts and will likely continue in that vein to cement the most important victory of her career.

Prediction: Fiorot via decision.

Best Bet: Fiorot by decision at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Fiorot at 1.50.