UFC 269: Oliveira v Poirier Predictions

Continuing its tradition of closing out the year with a bang, two titles will be at stake at the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion’s final pay-per-view of 2021 taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The main event of UFC 269 is a blockbuster as Charles Oliveira defends his lightweight championship for the first time against Dustin Poirier, one of the biggest and most respected stars in the sport. 

The co-headliner features Amanda Nunes, the greatest female fighter on the planet, who looks to add to her legacy as she puts her bantamweight championship on the line again Julianna Peña. 

Top-15 welterweights Geoff Neal and Santiago Ponzinibbio square off in a striking battle, former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt starts his flyweight journey against one of the division’s finest in Kai Kara-France and the next episode of “The Suga Show” sees Sean O’Malley battle Raulian Paiva in a bantamweight banger.

MAIN CARD (from 5 AM Sunday SA time):

Charles Oliveira (2.40) v Dustin Poirier (1.62) (Lightweight Championship)

The much-anticipated main event is what true martial arts is all about. In an era in which money fights and trash-talking reigns, UFC 269’s headliners reached the marquee the old-fashioned way. Both men are pure martial arts practitioners, two of the most tenured and revered fighters on the UFC roster who took the long road to the top.

Their paths to the pinnacle are paid in full and their arduous journeys, which began in 2008 and 2009 respectively, see them finally collide for the richest prize in the sport. For titleholder Oliveira (30-8-1NC), a victory would mean validation, while for Poirier (27-6-1NC), a win would be the crowning moment of his career. 

Debuting in the UFC in 2010, it took Oliveira a record 27 fights inside the Octagon to finally earn a title shot earlier this year. His opponent Michael Chandler, in contrast, had only one UFC appearance following an unrivalled run in Bellator. 

Oliveira seized the moment in what was a wild fight in May, knocking out “Iron” to capture the championship vacated by Khabib Nurmagomedov. “Do Bronx” answered a lot of critics in his title triumph, particularly those who questioned his heart, as he dug down deep and rallied after almost being stopped by strikes.

Yet, many still see Poirier as the uncrowned champion due to the major moves he’s made since 2017. He beat four champions in Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Max Holloway, the latter for the interim lightweight title, before falling short in the unification bout against Nurmagomedov in 2019.

Following a brutal win over Dan Hooker, he started 2021 in the biggest way imaginable by becoming the first man to knock out former two-weight champion Conor McGregor in January and went on to triumph in the trilogy fight in July after “The Notorious” suffered a broken tibia at the end of the first round.

That brings us to the T-Mobile Arena, where the true king of the star-studded 155-pound (70kg) division will rise. Both warriors are exceptionally well-rounded and in their prime, thus, fight fans will be treated to the absolute highest level of mixed martial arts.  

Oliveira has built his career on being a submission magician, so much so that he holds the record for most submission wins in UFC history with 14. He boasts 19 tap out wins in all, a ratio of 61%. However, his current remarkable run has shown he’s evolved into a complete killer. The Brazilian’s riding a nine-fight win streak, with eight of those coming via finish, and with Poirier being a predator, I don’t see it going the distance.

Whereas the champion will have the edge on the ground, the challenger has superior striking. Fourteen of his 21 finishes are by KO and his monumental knockout of McGregor, the best striker in the division, is the ultimate testament of Poirier’s proficiency on the feet. 

He shouldn’t have too much difficulty overcoming a two-inch reach disadvantage. Oliveira is technical, but he doesn’t have the footwork and athleticism of Poirier. Pivotally, his lacking head movement will leave him open to combinations and power punches, which in the end, should see Poirier fulfil his dream of being crowned the undisputed champion. 

Prediction: Poirier via TKO. 

Best Bet: Poirier at 1.62. 

Alternative Bet: Poirier by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.20.

Amanda Nunes (1.11) v Julianna Peña (7.00) (Bantamweight Championship)

At the very summit of the sport, Nunes occupies a special place. In the history of the UFC, there’s only been four fighters who simultaneously held two titles in two different weight classes, a phenomenon started by Irish superstar McGregor. Of that elite group, Nunes stands tall as the only one to successfully defend both belts. 

In the process, “The Lioness” has cemented herself as the GOAT, that is, the greatest of all time. To call her ravenous run of 12 consecutive victories a winning streak doesn’t do it justice. It’s been a seven-year reign of terror in which she’s unmercifully piled one body onto another at featherweight and bantamweight.  

Looking to defend her 135-pound (61kg) belt for the sixth time, she enters with a record of 21-4 with 17 finishes. Thirteen of those came by knockout, including brutal beat downs of fellow women’s MMA Mount Rushmore figures Ronda Rousey and Cris Cyborg.

Beyond being well-rounded, she has heavy hands, powerful takedowns and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Add the aura of invisibility and you’ll come to understand why she’s an overwhelming favourite every time she steps inside the Octagon. 

So, can Peña (11-4) pull of the upset? She’s an excellent wrestler with strong ground-and-pound (three knockouts) and good jiu-jitsu (four submission wins). “The Venezuelan Vixen” has a warrior spirit and believes the difference between her and those who’ve fallen at Nunes’ feet is that she has no fear of the dominant Brazilian. 

She went as far as saying Nunes was ducking her after the double champ pulled out of their originally scheduled date in August after testing positive for Covid. She’s a grinder but all of her eggs are in the grappling basket. Nunes is stronger than most and with tremendous takedown defence (84%), Peña’s one trick will be incredibly tough to pull off and without it, there’s no way she lasts the full five rounds.

Click here to watch

Nunes has strong takedowns and might dump Peña to prove a point. Thus, a submission is in play. However, it’s more likely that she’ll keep the fight on the feet and wail on the challenger until she crumbles. 

Prediction: Nunes via TKO. 

Best Bet: Nunes by KO/TKO/DQ at 1.57.

Alternative Bet: While Nunes’ last challenger, Megan Anderson, didn’t make it out of the opening round, Peña’s grit and grinding style should see her put up a better fight. She almost went two full rounds with the great Valentina Shevchenko back in 2017, so while I don’t see it going three rounds, I do believe it’ll go over 1.5 rounds, which you can get at 1.83. 

Geoff Neal (2.05) v Santiago Ponzinibbio (1.80) (Welterweight)

UFC president Dana White often says the promotion doesn’t conform to what is a politically correct world. It’s mostly his response to questions whenever fighters are accused of going too far with trash-talking. In this case, it truly is only in the UFC that an athlete is arrested for driving while intoxicated and unlawfully carrying a weapon on Thanksgiving and not get pulled off the following week’s pay-per-view event.

Details of the arrest are sketchy and at the time of writing, it remained unclear if Neal (13-4) was, in fact, drunk, which the 12th-ranked fighter insists he was not. In the closest clash of the main card, those details are pivotal when it comes to picking a winner.

If he was intoxicated, he clearly lacked discipline in his fight camp, which would give Ponzinibbio (28-4) a clear advantage. If not, then the drama is still a major distraction. Both men are high-pressure strikers with stopping power; Neal has eight KOs and “The Argentine Dagger” 15, which suggests one of them is getting knocked out.

Fourteenth-ranked Ponzinibbio has momentum on his side, having made a triumphant comeback in June, whereas “Handz of Steel” is on a two-fight losing streak. Add the arrest drama and Ponzinibbio is the pick.

Prediction: Ponzinibbio via knockout.

Best Bet: Ponzinibbio at 1.80.

Alternative Bet: Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO/DQ at 3.15.

Kai Kara-France (2.15) v Cody Garbrandt (1.74) (Flyweight)

After dropping four of his last five, former bantamweight champion Garbrandt (12-4) looks to reinvent himself in a new weight class. Much relies on the cut. If he’s able to drop the 10 pounds without too much trouble, he’ll likely starch Kara-France (22-9-1NC). If it depletes him, the latter could spoil his plans.  

Garbrandt was the heaviest hitter at 135, a division he ruled in 2016, scoring all but two of his wins by knockout, including an all-time classic one-punch KO of Raphael Assunção. That power will be destructive at flyweight, where his excellent footwork will help him cut off the faster 125-pounders.

Kara-France is a stiff test first up. Primarily a striker, sixth-ranked “Don’t Blink” has 10 knockouts to his credit as well, but he can’t match power with Garbrandt. Instead, he’ll look to his superior volume and three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage to overwhelm his big-name opponent.

The New Zealander is 2-2 in his last four and hasn’t shown enough yet to suggest he can topple a former titleholder. Look to “No Love” to make a statement in his flyweight debut. 

Prediction: Garbrandt via knockout.

Best Bet: Garbrandt by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Garbrandt at 1.74.

Raulian Paiva (3.35) v Sean O’Malley (1.33) (Bantamweight)

The charismatic O’Malley (14-1) opens the main card against experienced 15th-ranked Paiva (21-3). With his colourful personality, O’Malley has long been seen by some purists as a hype train and when he suffered his first loss against Marlon Vera last year, those critics claimed he’d been derailed. 

Since then, “Suga” proved anew that he’s for real and one of the best strikers in the bantamweight division with dominant back-to-back wins. Lanky and rangy for the weight class, 5′ 11″ O’Malley made Thomas Almeida his 10th knockout victim before battering a superhumanly tough Kris Moutinho with 230 significant strikes, the fourth-most in UFC history.

He’s three inches taller and will have a two-and-a-half-inch reach advantage over Paiva. The Brazilian has good counter-striking but lacks finishing ability as his record shows (he only has four KOs and three submissions). The more well-rounded fighter, Paiva’s best bet is to look to curb his counterpart’s creativity with wrestling. 

O’Malley is so unpredictable, fast, long and accurate that he should be elusive enough to avoid takedowns and catch Paiva with his impressive one-punch knockout power. 

Prediction: O’Malley via knockout.

Best Bet: O’Malley by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Under 2.5 rounds at 1.76.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.