UFC 266: Volkanovski v Ortega Predictions

Featuring two blockbuster title fights and the return of the legendary Nick Diaz, UFC 266 taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time) is a can’t-miss card, writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

After weeks of increasing tension between them as opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter, featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski and well-rounded challenger Brian Ortega finally meet inside the Octagon in a much-anticipated main event showdown. 

In the co-headliner, one of the best pound-for-pound pugilists on the planet, Valentina Shevchenko, sets out to continue her dominant reign as flyweight champion when she takes on Lauren Murphy, while a third epic encounter sees welterweight greats square off in the returning Diaz and former champion Robbie Lawler. 

Plus, top-10 heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik and top-five flyweights Jessica Andrade and Cynthia Calvillo collide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsdGE8I9oeg

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Alexander Volkanovski (1.60) v Brian Ortega (2.45) (Featherweight Championship):

Anticipation is through the roof as these two were originally set to meet in March. Covid put paid to those plans as Volkanovski (22-1) tested positive for the virus and intrigue continued to build while they served as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter. Now the time has come to find out who’s the better man. 

Like all UFC champions, Volkanovski is a special breed of human. He’s a fantastic athlete and his fight IQ is up there among the brightest the sport has ever known. His ability (with the help of his team, of course) to mastermind the perfect gameplan and then execute it to the tee was primarily what saw him beat the great Jose Aldo in Brazil in May 2019, close out that year by upsetting the dominant Max Holloway at UFC 245 to become the featherweight champion and retain the belt in their rematch last July.  

But what truly makes him “The Great” is his drive, the extraordinary inner will to transform himself from a pudgy rugby league forward into the featherweight champion of the world. At 5’6″, the Australian was fully aware he’d have to compete in one of the smaller weight classes if he were to make a successful transition to MMA. 

So he lost 70 pounds (32kg), retained the strength that made him a force on the field and unlocked his optimal speed and athleticism. He became a featherweight (66kg) anomaly, one no one has been able to overcome inside the Octagon. He’s only tasted defeat once, back in his rookie days in 2013, and heads into his second title defence on a 19-fight win streak (9-0 in the UFC), which is why he’s the favourite.

He’s a go-forward, tireless, pace-pushing pugilist with plenty of power. Former interim featherweight title challenger Chad Mendez is among his 11 knockout victims, while Volkanovski also has three submission victories. The ground, however, is the last place he’ll want to become Saturday night as Ortega (15-1-1NC) is arguably the most skilled submission artist in UFC featherweight history.

Rener Gracie’s prized pupil has won half of his fights by submission and has the best triangle in the business, hence his moniker “T-City”. Volkanovski’s controversial decision win in the rematch with Holloway was a win for Ortega as well as “Blessed” was the one who ended his unbeaten streak in their title fight in December 2018.

Ortega spent nearly two years on the sidelines before returning to action last October with a career-best performance against Chan Sung Jung. The submission specialist looked a new man, not so much because he’d shaved off his long locks but rather because he put on a striking masterclass to slay “The Korean Zombie.”

The improvements he showed in his stand-up was unbelievable and makes him an even bigger threat to Volkanovski’s throne. The champion will probably still have the speed advantage but fighting on the outside will prove tricky against his taller opponent. 

He’ll have to close the distance, even though he knows that’ll offer Ortega opportunities to grab a hold of him and try to sink in a submission. The same is true for one of his biggest weapons. Debilitating opponents with wicked leg kicks is a Volkanovski trademark, and while he’s sure to slam them in lower than usual, they still come with the risk of a counter takedown. 

I believe Ortega’s markedly improved footwork will enable him to trap Volkanovski in a proverbial corner at some stage, where the underdog will sink in his clutches and secure a life-changing submission. 

Prediction: Ortega via submission.

Best Bet: Ortega at 2.45.

Alternative Bets: Ortega by submission at 5.00 or KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 3.75. On the flip side, the value bet on Volkanovski is the champ by decision at 2.30.

Valentina Shevchenko (1.05) v Lauren Murphy (10.00) (Flyweight Championship)

Shevchenko (21-3) is the overwhelming favourite for good reason. She’s been untouchable at flyweight, where she’s never lost and has defended her title five times dating back to 2018, each more emphatic than the last.

Her annihilation of Jessica Andrade in April was another brutal reminder that she’s the total package as she out grappled the Brazilian before bludgeoning her with elbows to roar to a second-round TKO. A black belt in kickboxing and judo, “Bullet” boasts seven knockouts, seven submissions and seven decisions. 

Murphy (15-4) snatched the title shot from Joanne Calderwood, who she edged out by split-decision in June to notch up her fifth win in a row. She’s a scrapper, who is solid rather than spectacular and frankly, the weakest challenger Shevchenko’s had. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrDuK38Gg68

She gets hit a lot, absorbing 4.25 significant strikes per minute (compared to the champion’s 1.99), which has resulted in all four of her defeats coming by decision. Her toughness carried her through those fights, but against the most skilled and laser-accurate striker in women’s MMA and at 38, those defensive deficiencies will see her getting stopped inside the first two rounds.

Prediction: Shevchenko via knockout.

Best Bet: Shevchenko by first-round stoppage at 3.40.

Alternative Bets: Shevchenko by second-round stoppage at 3.60 or by knockout at 1.74.

Robbie Lawler (1.80) v Nick Diaz (2.05) (Welterweight)

A clash of titans we never thought we’d witness again. It’s a rematch 17 years in the making, with Diaz (26-9, 2NC) returning after a six-year hiatus to take on an old rival and fellow future Hall of Famer. 

As raw, real, tough and talented as they come, the trash-talking Stockton superstar last fought in 2015 when he dropped a decision to Anderson Silva, a result that was subsequently overturned to a no-contest after Silva tested positive for two banned substances. Diaz popped as well, for marijuana, and as a third strike, he was handed a five-year suspension.  

For anyone else, rust would be a factor, but Nick and his younger brother Nate are cut from a different cloth. They are fighters in mind, body and soul with swag and superhuman durability born on the mean streets of the 209 and world-class skills honed as part of the notorious Skrap Pack. 

For Diaz, throwing down is like riding a bike. He fought sporadically well before his suspension, stepping into the Octagon just four times between 2011 and 2015, so inactivity in UFC terms has been a part of life for him for the past decade. 

Conditioning? No problem either. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt’s a lifelong martial artist and dedicated triathlete. His cardio has always been as key to his success as his high-level boxing (13 knockouts) and sensational grappling (eight submissions) and you can bet he’ll be sharp and in shape. 

In fact, that this is a five-round fight, counts in his favour considering the wars Lawler (28-15,1NC) has been in during the same period. The former welterweight champion still has one-punch knockout power, but at 39 – one year older than Diaz – his four-fight losing streak dating back to 2017 is proof that he’s already paying the toll for an iconic 20-year career. Having said that, I won’t be surprised if he’s able to spoil Diaz’s comeback as the bookies favour him to do.

Lawler’s the stronger and more athletic fighter with dynamite in his hands, which has earned him 20 knockouts, and yet, it was he who was knocked out in the first meeting back in 2004. While I don’t see Diaz scoring quite as spectacular a finish as he did back then, I do think he’ll wear Lawless down with his tireless pace and fast hands to either pick up a late TKO or win a decision. 

*In true Diaz fashion, there’s a potential late curveball with the Stockton scrapper hoping to have the fight moved up to middleweight. At the time of writing, it was yet to be confirmed if the Lawler camp and the UFC were open to the change. It would save the legendary duo the effort of cutting weight but it wouldn’t affect how the fight plays out.

Prediction: Diaz via TKO. 

Best Bet: Diaz at 2.05.

Alternative Bet: Diaz by KO/TKO/DQ at 6.00 or decision 3.25.

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Curtis Blaydes (1.29) v Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2.60) (Heavyweight)

I’m surprised by how wide the line is for this classic battle of striker versus grappler. Sixth-ranked Rozenstruik (12-2) had a sensational record of 76-8 with 64 knockouts as a kickboxer before he transitioned to MMA, where his striking prowess has been even more devastating as it’s seen him pick up all but one of his wins by KO. 

Blaydes (14-3) is a monster wrestler with earth-shaking ground-and-pound. A man-mountain, he usually weighs in at the heavyweight limit of 265 pounds (120kg) and stands 6’4″, two inches taller than “Bigi Boy.” As such a behemoth, he, too, has heavy hands, which has earned him 10 knockouts, many of which were the result of the threat of the takedown.

Fourth-ranked “Razor” is all about masking and setting up the takedown, which he secures more often than not because of his explosive first step. He did get caught coming in when he was viciously knocked out by Derrick Lewis last time out, though, so there is a chance that he might be hesitant to pull the trigger, which will rightly see solid support for underdog Rozenstruik. 

However, backing wrestlers in these stylistic clashes pays off the majority of the time and Blaydes has enough skills and entry points that come with them to take “Bigi Boy” off his feet and finish him on the ground to reinsert himself into the title picture. 

Prediction: Blaydes via TKO. 

Best Bet: Neither man has a submission victory and I can’t see this going the distance. Blaydes to ground-and-pound his way to a TKO win at 2.20. 

Alternative Bet: As mentioned, Rozenstruik could pull a Lewis and KO Blaydes coming in, which will net you a big pay out at 4.75.

Jessica Andrade (1.36) v Cynthia Calvillo (2.20) (Flyweight)

Coming off the aforementioned loss to flyweight queen Shevchenko, this is an important fight for Andrade (21-9) to consolidate her status as the No.1-ranked contender. Dangerous everywhere, “Bate Estaca” is one of the best female fighters of this generation; she has serious punching power (eight KOs), excellent jiu-jitsu (seven submissions) and a warrior spirit. 

At 5’1″, she’s used to being the smaller fighter and uses her low centre of gravity and explosive strength to slam opponents, which is how she became the strawweight champion when she spiked Rose Namajunas on her head last June before losing the belt to Weili Zhang. 

Calvillo (9-2-1) is more of a decision-based fighter with four of her wins and both of her losses coming on the scorecards. She came up short in her last fight against Katlyn Chookagian, whom Andrade stopped in the first round, so she’s set to be outgunned.

Prediction: Andrade via decision. 

Best Bet: Andrade by decision at 2.65.

Alternative Bet: Andrade by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.65.