UFC 265: Lewis v Gane Predictions

The Toyota Center will come unglued for hometown hero Derrick Lewis as he aims to halt the rise of undefeated Frenchman Ciryl Gane and capture the interim heavyweight title at UFC 265 in Houston, Texas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

In the co-main event, the legendary Jose Aldo meets Pedro Munhoz in a high-stakes bantamweight battle. Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque will look to stake their claim for a welterweight title match, while top-15 strawweights Tecia Torres and Angela Hill face-off in a heated affair. Kick-starting the main card in H-Town is a bantamweight scrap between Song Yadong and Casey Kenney. 

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Derrick Lewis (3.90) v Ciryl Gane (1.26) (Interim Heavyweight Championship)

When you think of heavyweight fighting, you think of devastating knockouts. In that sense, overwhelming favourite Gane hasn’t blazed a trail but rather methodically marched to a perfect 9-0 record – six of those wins coming in the UFC – and this chance to become the interim champion. Win this one and he’ll punch his ticket to a unification bout with former training partner and reigning 265-pound (120kg) king, Francis Ngannou.  

Everything the French phenom does is tactical and technically sound. Lewis is the exact opposite. The epitome of a knockout artist, he’s a throwback to the formative years of mixed martial arts when specialists faced off to find out which fighting discipline was superior. 

In the modern era of well-rounded fighters and supreme athletes, a one-dimensional and beefy banger like Lewis shouldn’t be as successful as he’s been since joining the UFC back in 2014. As the colourful character himself put it before his title fight against then-champion Daniel Cormier in November 2018, “I don’t care if people don’t respect me because I’m not a mixed martial artist. I don’t respect the sport and train like a mixed martial artist. I’m just a brawler.”

He’s an underdog in most of his big fights as he only has one way to win, whereas his more complete adversaries, including Gane, have a number of avenues toward victory. However, his superhuman power and uncanny ability to land the kill shot make up for his admitted lack of versatility and athleticism.  

The beauty of “The Black Beast” was perfectly summed up in his last fight in February when he starched Curtis Blaydes with a hellacious uppercut as the much-vaunted wrestler shot in for a takedown in the second round. It was just the seventh strike Lewis landed in the fight and saw him tie Vitor Belfort’s all-time UFC record of 12 knockouts. 

His dozen KOs inside the Octagon is the most in UFC heavyweight history and overall, the heavy-handed Texas titan has 20 knockouts to his name. He’s shown that he carries that legendary punching power late into a fight, most memorably when he laid out Alexander Volkov to snatch a stunning victory from the jaws of defeat with just 11 seconds left on the clock. 

That was a three-round fight, though, and a 25-minute main event certainly favours cardio machine, Gane. “Bon Gamin” is as patient and precise as they come in the heavyweight division, which are tailor-made traits to topple the lethal Lewis. 

His last two wins, in back-to-back main events, were anything but barnburners, but they were convincing nonetheless – a combined 50 minutes of tactical and technical prowess that saw him outpoint Jairzinho Rozenstruik in February and Volkov in June to move up to third in the rankings.

The cerebral colossus has six finishes, evenly split between knockouts and submissions, and he’ll have a distinct advantage on the ground, where Lewis is a fish out of water when it comes to ju-jitsu. His ability to stay out of danger and lead the dance on the feet, along with his superior grappling, should see Gane outclass the game Lewis and most likely get his hand raised by decision. As Lewis tires, though, Gane could also sink in a submission or thirdly, finish him via TKO.  

Prediction: Gane via decision. 

Best Bet: Gane by submission/decision at 2.20.

Alternative Bet: Lewis’ record-setting power and history of defying the odds with one-hitter quitters will ensure plenty of two-way action on the betting front, with a 13th “Black Beast” KO available at 5.50.

Jose Aldo (1.86) v Pedro Munhoz (1.95) (Bantamweight)

Both pugilists have something to prove in this pivotal bantamweight co-headliner. Fifth-ranked Aldo (29-7) will seek to show he’s still one of the absolute best, while ninth-ranked Munhoz (19-5) will be determined to prove he’s championship material by knocking off the former 145-pound champion. 

The greatest featherweight of all time, Aldo came up short in his bantamweight title bout against Petr Yan but bounced back with a decision win over Marlon Vera last December, “Junior”, who’s now fully acclimated to the 135-pound division, has lethal striking (17 knockouts) and arguably the most feared leg kicks in the business. 

Neither he nor Munhoz goes for takedowns, so this will be an all-out fire-fight on the feet. Munhoz doesn’t quite have the punching power of Aldo (few in the division do), but he still has five knockouts on his record, former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt being among his victims. 

Where Munhoz has the advantage is his output. “The Young Punisher” is a high-volume striker whereas Aldo picks his spots, which has cost him on the scorecards on a few occasions. I’m backing the constant pressure and iron chin of slight underdog Munhoz, who has never been finished, over the power and reach (five-inch advantage) of “The King of Rio” in a fight I see going to the judges.  

Prediction: Munhoz via decision.

Best Bet: Munhoz at 1.95.

Alternative Bet: Munhoz by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 2.20.

Michael Chiesa (2.00) v Vicente Luque (1.83) (Welterweight)

The welterweight division is in need of fresh title challengers and these two fit the bill. It’s No.5 against No.6 and only one can move closer to a maiden championship opportunity. They go about their business in contrasting ways but are both highly successful, with Chiesa (18-4) on a four-fight tear and Luque (20-7-1) having won three on the trot.

Chiesa is a big, powerful grappler who takes opponents down and either keeps them down or taps them out. The Ultimate Fighter Season 15 winner has 11 wins by submission but has won his last three by decision. “Maverick” isn’t the most entertaining fighter, but that’s where Luque comes in.

There’s nothing reserved about the ironically nicknamed “Silent Assassin.” He’s made serious noise with his killer instinct, which has seen all but two of his wins come by stoppage, including the last three. He showed his granite chin last time out as well as he recovered and finished former champion, Tyron Woodley, in a one-round thriller in March.

Luque’s a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu as well, the aforementioned win over Woodley being his seventh by submission, so he’ll attack off his back if/when Chiesa manages to ground him. Due to the threat of the takedown and Chiesa being a southpaw, it’ll take time for Luque to figure out his foe. However, Chiesa does present openings in the stand-up and eventually, Luque should land and finish the fight inside the distance. 

Prediction: Luque via stoppage. 

Best Bet: Luque at 1.83.

Alternative Bet: Luque by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 3.25.

Tecia Torres (1.74) v Angela Hill (2.15) (Strawweight)

There’s no love lost between these two, who’ve been jawing back-and-forth since Torres triumphed in their first fight by decision back in 2015. That brewing vitriol will add much-needed spice to the rematch given that both ladies are decision machines. 

It’s a compelling clash in the sense that 10th-ranked “Tiny Tornado” does her best work up close – a necessity for any pint-sized pugilist who perennially gives up size and reach, while Hill hangs back and picks opponents apart from distance. 

Twelfth-ranked “Overkill” has always been susceptible to sustained grappling attacks, which Torres will once again bring to the table along with combinations in the clinch, so history looks set to repeat itself. 

Prediction: Torres via decision.

Best Bet: Torres at 1.74.

Alternative Bet: Torres by decision at 2.00.

Song Yadong (1.90) v Casey Kenney (1.90) (Bantamweight)

Two of the brightest rising stars in the bantamweight division get the action underway in what promises to be an all-action affair, with both men fuelled to rebound from rare defeats, which came on the same card in March. Yadong (16-5-1-1NC) dropped a decision to Kyler Phillips that snapped a nine-fight unbeaten streak, while Kenney (16-3-1) lost a spilt-decision to Dominic Cruz, which halted a three-fight winning run.  

That narrow loss to the former bantamweight king showed Kenney is capable of hanging with the elite, but “The Kung Fu Monkey” has serious punching power, which has earned him six knockouts to Kenney’s two, so the American can’t afford to give Yadong the same amount of offence he did Cruz. It’s a pick ’em in which I’m going with the more fleet-footed Kenney to outmanoeuvre his Chinese counterpart.

Prediction: Kenney via decision.

Best Bet: Kenney at 1.90.

Alternative Bet: Kenney by decision at 2.50.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.