UFC 262: Oliveira v Chandler predictions

A new champion will be crowned when Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler collide in a historic lightweight headliner at UFC 262 in Houston, Texas on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld. 

The Toyota Centre will be bursting with fans, all waiting in electric anticipation to find out who will lead the star-laden lightweight division into the future after former king Khabib Nurmagomedov vacated the crown and rode off into the sunset following his title defence against Justin Gaethje at UFC 254.

The co-main event is another lightweight banger as Tony Ferguson takes on Beneil Dariush in what’s sure to be a slugfest. The rest of the main card also features nothing but ranked fighters with Matt Schnell battling Rogerio Bontorin at bantamweight and Katlyn Chookagian facing off with Viviane Araujo at flyweight.

But first, Shane Burgos and Edson Barboza will go scorched earth in a featherweight fire-fight guaranteed to kick things off with a bang.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLEmpQj2r4w

MAIN CARD (from 4 AM Sunday SA time):

Charles Oliveira v Michael Chandler (Lightweight Championship)

The mainstay meets the new kid on the block in a compelling clash for the lightweight championship of the world. Oliveira (29-8-1NC) has been holding it down in the UFC for over a decade. The Brazilian hinted at what was to come when he tapped out Darren Elkins in just 41 seconds in his promotional debut on August 1, 2010, and is now the all-time leader in submission victories (14). 

For the longest time, the BJJ black belt was a silent assassin who felled foes with unrivalled submission sorcery. Since 2018, however, he’s been a roaring marauder, shaking the inconsistency that slowed down his ascend and stringing together a spectacular eight-fight win streak – all but the most recent coming by stoppage. 

It was in his last two fights, in particular, that “Do Bronx” showed he’s championship material. He submitting Kevin Lee last March and went on to manhandle ex-interim champion Tony Ferguson, who was widely considered the next-best lightweight for most of the Nurmagomedov area, like no-one had ever done to claim a dominant decision victory in December. 

The tenacious Ferguson, who almost had his arm snapped in the first round, was just the second man to go the distance with Oliveira, whose ever-improving striking has earned him eight knockouts to go with his 19 career submissions. 

Chandler (22-5) might be the new kid on the UFC’s block, but he’s as experienced and decorated as they come. It might have taken the long-time face of Bellator – who holds plenty of promotional records including the most title reigns (3) and stoppage wins (13) – over a decade to finally step inside the Octagon, but when he did in January, he had one of the greatest debuts in UFC history as he knocked out the dangerous Dan Hooker in the first round. 

Hooker had taken everything Dustin Poirier could throw at him in a bloody five-round war in his previous fight, yet it took “Iron” just two-and-a-half minutes to finish “The Hangman” and immediately thrust himself into title contention. That’s the type of power and explosiveness Chandler brings to the table.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GhYBfSvd7c

The calculated, lightning-quick acceleration that led to him stopping Hooker is a perfect example of how the 5’8″ savage’s been able to overcome varying degrees of reach disadvantages throughout his career. Hooker’s a vastly superior striker than Oliveira and had a marginally bigger reach advantage over Chandler, so hitting the target shouldn’t be a problem for the 35-year-old. 

What you don’t see in his highlight-reel, which includes 10 knockouts and seven fight-finishing submissions, is the foundation for Chandler’s overwhelming success, that being his phenomenal wrestling base as a former NCAA Division 1 All American. The fantastic pure athlete pairs world-class technique with brute strength and uses his low centre of gravity to shoot in deep under his opponent’s attempted underhooks to take them to the mat.

The other key point to consider is Chandler’s championship experience. Whereas Oliveira enters unchartered waters, Chandler’s seen the championship rounds (four and five) six times and went the full five rounds on four of those occasions.

There truly is no margin for error in this title tilt, not for Oliveira on the feet nor for Chandler in terms of his takedown timing and entry points. Leave an opening and Oliveira will be looking up at the lights, leave his neck out when he shoots or offer too much space on the ground and Chandler will be forced to tap or go to sleep. Oliveira’s biggest weapon in this regard – to turn defence into attack on the feet – will be his outstanding guillotine choke. 

Considering his recent body of work, Oliveira is rightfully the favourite. However, I believe Chandler’s championship pedigree will enable him to win the mental battle, either staying laser-focused for the full 25 minutes or capitalising on any mistakes the Brazilian may make, to seize UFC gold in just his second fight in the promotion.

Prediction: Chandler via TKO.

Best Bet: Chandler by KO/TKO/DQ/decision at 2.20.

 Alternative Bet: Chandler by decision at 7.00.

Tony Ferguson v Beneil Dariush (Lightweight)

Is Ferguson finished? That’s the big question the co-main event boils down to. “El Cucuy” has an excellent record of 26-4 but he’s coming off back-to-back losses. Brutal ones. He was stopped by Justin Gaethje in the fifth-round of their interim title fight this time last year and dominated by Oliveira in December.

Prior to his 2020 woes, the well-rounded wild man strung together a tremendous 12-fight win streak and was scheduled to fight then-champion Nurmagomedov in a dream match that never materialised. He’s dropped to fifth in the rankings, four places above Dariush (20-4-1), but is the underdog due to his recent struggles. 

Dariush is all action and heart. He’s on a six-fight win streak that included spectacular knockouts of Drakkar Klose – which earned him the 2020 Comeback of the Year award – and Scott Holtzman. He eked out a split decision victory over Carlos Ferreira in February but given both pugilists’ predatory nature, I’d be shocked if this one goes the distance.

Ferguson’s uniquely unorthodox, highly skilled in every aspect of MMA and will have a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. Dariush has fallen short against top contenders like Barboza and Michael Chiesa and Ferguson is a level above them. If he pitches up mentally, Ferguson should get back on track in an absolute barnburner.

Prediction: Ferguson via stoppage. 

Best Bet: Ferguson at 2.40.

Alternative Bet: Ferguson by KO/TKO/DQ/submission at 4.50.

Matt Schnell v Rogerio Bontorin (Bantamweight)

Top 10 flyweights face-off 10 pounds north of their usual weight class, which will count in Schnell’s favour. At 5’8″, he stands three inches taller than Bontorin (16-3-1NC), who replaced Alex Perez on less than a month’s notice, and will have a three-inch reach advantage.

This should be a grappling chess match of the highest order. Schnell (15-5) has a 50% submission rate, while Bontorin has an even better track record with 11 of his 16 wins coming by tapout. Stats, thus, suggest that this showdown will likely end via submission, however, there’s a possibility that their jiu-jitsu prowess will cancel each other out. I sense that’ll be the case. 

Neither are big hitters but boasting a black belt in karate, Schnell’s the superior striker and has momentum on his side as well. “Danger” has won five of his last six, whereas Bontorin is coming off back-to-back losses, so Schnell should be a step ahead. 

Prediction: Schnell via decision.

Best Bet: Schnell by submission/decision at 2.10. 

Alternative Bet: Schnell by decision at 3.15.

Katlyn Chookagian v Viviane Araujo (Flyweight)

Chookagian (14-4) is an imposing flyweight at 5’9″. She’s amassed an 8-4 record in the UFC and sits second in the rankings. Her size doesn’t translate into punching power, though, as all but two of her wins are by decision. “Blonde Fighter” isn’t big on wrestling, which is surprising given her solid frame, with just three takedowns in her UFC career, all of which came in her win over Cynthia Calvillo last time out. Instead, she banks on her boxing to outpoint opponents. 

Against heavy-handed Araujo (10-2), she’d be well-served to follow the game plan she used against Calvillo. “Vivi” is ferocious on the feet, blasting opponents with power punches and has four submissions to go with her three knockouts, although her last three wins were by decision. At 8.50 and 12.00 respectively, though, you’ll cash in big if she’s able to stop Chookagian. The seventh-ranked Brazilian is better at mixing things up and her explosiveness should further help her overcome the size difference.

Prediction: Araujo via decision. 

Best Bet: Araujo at 2.10.

Alternative Bet: Araujo by decision at 3.00.

Shane Burgos v Edson Barboza (Featherweight)

This promises to be a thrilling stand-up war between two of the fiercest strikers in the featherweight division. Both men love nothing more than to stand and trade. Ninth-ranked Burgos (13-2) is primarily a boxer and has dynamite in his hands. “Hurricane” has 10 finishes, evenly split between knockouts and submissions, and is blessed with the type of chin that allows him to take a few in order to give a few. 

Against Barboza (21-9), however, that acceptance/willingness to get hit spells trouble. The taekwondo black belt is one of, if not the most devastating kicker in UFC history. Certainly, his arsenal of lethal leg attacks is unrivalled and if he’s afforded any space, he’ll chop Burgos down in brutal fashion. 

Twelve of the 12th-ranked Barboza’s wins are by knockout, including his historic and all-time classic spinning wheel kick KO of Terry Etim back in 2012. Knees will be key for Barboza with Burgos likely to try to swarm and stay in close. I believe the Brazilian will get the better of his fancied foe because of his more diverse striking.

Another amazing Kick KO is Edson Barboza vs Terry Etim at UFC 142 in Rio! #DWCOTD pic.twitter.com/dmmDKlpEA5

— danawhite (@danawhite) October 5, 2015

Prediction: Barboza via TKO. 

Best Bet: Barboza at 2.05.

Alternative Bet: Barboza by KO/TKO/DQ at 4.50.