UFC 261: Usman v Masvidal 2 Predictions

Epicness is in store as fans finally return in full force to serve as battle drums and bear witness to three titanic title fights at UFC 261 in Jacksonville, Florida on Saturday night (Sunday morning SA time), writes Quintin van Jaarsveld.

After over a year of events in eerily empty arenas due to Covid-19 protocols, the UFC will burst back into life as a capacity crowd of 15,000 fans fill up the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. To mark the occasion, the world’s leading MMA promotion has put together a super card that promises to go down in history as a landmark event.

The main event is the much-anticipated rematch for the welterweight title between champion Kamaru Usman and challenger Jorge Masvidal. China’s first UFC champion, Zhang Weili, puts her strawweight strap on the line in an equally enticing encounter against Rose Namajunas in the co-headliner while featherweight queen Valentina Shevchenko takes on Jessica Andrade in a third fascinating title fight.

Plus, ex-middleweight champion Chris Weidman battles Uriah Hall and former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith squares off with Jimmy Crute.

MAIN CARD (from 4.00 Sunday morning SA time):

Kamaru Usman v Jorge Masvidal (Welterweight Championship)

Bad blood and a unique set of circumstances lead to an epic encore for the welterweight championship of the world. Usman (18-1) did what he does best and that’s dominate when he and Masvidal (35-14) met in the main event at UFC 251 on Fight Island last July.

“The Nigerian Nightmare” neutralised the dangerous challenger with his unrivalled ability to seamlessly blend striking with his world-class wrestling en route to a dominant decision win. The lopsided loss stalled Masvidal’s momentum, but the popular pugilist lost nothing in the eyes of the fans as he took the fight on six days’ notice, flew halfway across the world and cut 20 pounds.

Those are legitimate mitigating factors if ever there were any and perfectly summed up why he’s known as “Gamebred.” Having gone a full five rounds with a beast like Usman with essentially no training camp, he gained even more respect from the fans, much to the champ’s chagrin.

Usman’s adamant Masvidal only took the fight because he had a “built-in excuse” and wants to put an exclamation point on his superiority. That’s what led to the rare move of a champion calling out a challenger in February, with Usman declaring Masvidal next fresh after finishing Gilbert Burns.

It’s also Usman’s biggest money fight given Masvidal’s star power. The former street fighter is a UFC veteran, debuting all the way back in 2013, but shot into superstardom in 2019 when he slept Darren Till, scored a record five-second knockout of Ben Askren that broke the internet and beat Nate Diaz for the specially built “BMF” belt.

How he combat’s the champion’s dominant wrestling remains to be seen, but with a full training camp this time around, he’s confident he can find a way to dethrone the reigning king. Usman has been an unstoppable force in the UFC. His third-round TKO win over Burns was his third title defence and saw him break the great Georges St-Pierre’s record win streak at welterweight.

A perfect 13-0 inside the Octagon, he’s been as commanding as they come, but he did get dropped by Burns in the first round, which will bolster Masvidal and his legion of supporters’ belief. At the same time, Usman showed his championship pedigree in the way he overcame the greatest albeit brief adversity of his reign.

Masvidal and his coaches would’ve taken a lot of lessons from the first meeting. They would’ve drilled takedown defence night and day and worked extensively on footwork and creating angles. The knockouts out Till and Askren are prime examples of the dangers “Gamebred” poses on the feet, both technically and in terms of unpredictability.

He’ll be wiser to Usman’s takedown entry points and there’s always a chance that a striker can connect with a fight-finishing blow as a wrestler shoots. However, Usman is such a well-versed wrestler – and a powerhouse on top of that – that I see the fight playing out much like the first meeting. It won’t be as big of a shutout, but Usman should earn another decision win.

Prediction: Usman via decision.

Best Bet: Usman by points at 1.68.

Alternative Bet: The only realistic way Masvidal walks out as champion is by knockout. If you’re backing the BMF, you can get him by KO/TKO/DQ at 6.00, or better yet, Masvidal by first-round KO/TKO/DQ at 21.00.

Zhang Weili v Rose Namajunas (Strawweight Championship)

If a title is going to change hands this weekend, it’ll most likely happen in the compelling co-main event. Still, that’s a big if. Weili is the favourite and it’s not hard to see why. She began her career with a controversial decision loss in 2013 but has since won 21 fights on the trot. A compact and complete fighter, 17 of her wins are by stoppage (10 knockouts and seven submissions).

“Magnum” enjoyed a meteoric rise in the UFC, capturing the strawweight championship in just her fourth fight in the promotion courtesy of a first-round KO of Andrade in August 2019. Having etched her name in history as China’s first UFC champion, she further immortalised herself with a split decision win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in an absolute war that’s widely considered the greatest fight in women’s MMA history.

That unbelievable battle at UFC 248 last March showed Weili had an unbreakable will to go along with her world-class skillset and sent a clear message to contenders like Namajunas (10-4) that it’ll take nothing less than an almighty effort to dethrone her. The robust wrecking ball has incredible punching power, which she temporarily disfigured former champion Jedrzejczyk with, and walks opponents down with relentless pressure.

She’s a better athlete than her challenger and a formidable wrestler with good top control, so she’s a threat wherever the fight goes. I suspect she’ll mainly keep it on the feet, though, as the most dangerous part of Namajunas’ game is her jiu-jitsu.

She uses her long limbs and dexterity to great effect and has trapped five of her victims in submissions, one of which was an incredible flying armbar 12 seconds into the fight against Kathina Catron in Invicta back in 2013. Don’t be surprised if she goes for it again, especially if Weili smothers her in the clinch.

“Thug” has evolved into an elite striker in recent years and will have a two-inch reach advantage. She knows a thing or two about defying the odds, having won the title as a +500 underdog when she knocked out the then-undefeated Jedrzejczyk in the opening round at UFC 217 in November 2017.

Five months later, she showcased her top-class technical striking again to outpoint Jedrzejczyk, a multi-time kickboxing world champion, in the rematch. She also pieced up Andrade before being brutally slammed and losing the belt in May 2019 and avenged the loss last year with another flowing striking exhibition.

As evenly matched as they are, I expect it to go long. There’s good value on Namajunas, who I would’ve backed regardless, as the dog, so my money’s on “Thug.”

Prediction: Namajunas via decision.

Best Bet: Namajunas by points at 4.50.

Alternative Bet: Namajunas at 2.55.

Valentina Shevchenko v Jessica Andrade (Flyweight Championship)

The stocky Andrade (21-8) faces a taller order in every sense of the word as she aims to achieve the rare feat of winning a championship in two different weight classes. Shevchenko (19-3) is a generational supernova, second only to the greatest of all time, Amanda Nunes.

The former Muay Thai world champion’s sensational striking, accuracy, speed and footwork made her an immediate force to be reckoned with in MMA and allowed her to beat not just considerably bigger opponents, but some of the best bantamweights in the world, including handing powerful wrestler Julianna Peña her first loss in the UFC and outstriking former 135-pound champion Holly Holm before the promotion finally introduced the flyweight division in 2017.

“Bullet” has been unstoppable in her natural weight class, felling fellow future Hall of Famer Jedrzejczyk to win the title in December 2018 and she’s defended it four times since. She hasn’t just been ruling the flyweight division with an iron fist, she’s widened the gap – no, gulf – between her and the rest with each commanding defence of her crown.

Her only two losses inside the Octagon came against Nunes (both at bantamweight). Despite giving up plenty of size and strength, she gave the now two-division champion her toughest test in the past five years, succumbing by split decision.

In Andrade, she faces a former strawweight champion. The Brazilian’s terrifying title triumph two years ago is the perfect case study for this championship showdown. The taller and more technical striker, this weekend’s co-headliner Namajunas stitched her up with strikes until Andrade closed the gap and dumped her on her head.

It was one of the scariest slams in UFC history, separating Namajunas from her senses and title and almost paralysing “Thug” for life. The same scenario awaits this weekend. At 5’5″, Shevchenko’s four inches taller and will have a five-inch reach advantage. Considering the champion’s striking prowess, she’ll coast to victory on the outside.

Andrade is well aware her only chance to claim the crown is to walk straight into the wood chipper. It’s a daunting task, especially with the haunting visual of Shevchenko’s hellacious head-kick knockout of Jessica Eye at UFC 238 floating around, but “Bate Estaca” is as tough as they come and will be willing to eat shots to initiate the clinch.

If she’s able to, she’ll still have to be wary of knees, but she’ll be in a position to put her power advantage to use to sap Shevchenko’s energy, soften her up with dirty boxing and use her low centre of gravity to get underhooks to slam or take the champion down.

Andrade will be game, but Shevchenko is such a sharpshooter on the feet that she’ll either land a kill shot or systematically break the Brazilian down.

Prediction: Shevchenko via TKO.

Best Bet: Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ at 2.80.

Alternative Bet: Shevchenko by points at 2.40.

Uriah Hall v Chris Weidman (Middleweight)

Long before they became household names, these two middleweights met on the local scene. It was Weidman who emerged victorious, knocking out Hall in the first round to win the Ring of Combat middleweight title back in 2010. He went on to capture the UFC title by dethroning the dominant Anderson Silva and defended the gold three times before suffering his first career loss to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194.

Losing the title sent “The All-American” on a downward spiral. He got stopped by Yoel Romero and Gegard Mousasi but showed signs of his former greatness when he submitted Kelvin Gastelum in a main event match-up in 2017. The respite was short-lived, though, as he was knocked out by Ronaldo Souza and Dominick Reyes in his next two bouts, but he bounced back with a win over in-form Omari Akhmedov last August.

Now 14-5 and ranked 11th, the former NCAA Division I All-American wrestler is eyeing another run at the belt. The momentum is firmly on Hall’s side, however. He’s on a UFC career-best three-fight win streak punctuated by the biggest victory of his career – a TKO win over Silva last October.

“Prime Time” (16-9) has moved up to ninth in the rankings and just over a decade after their first meeting, he gets an opportunity to avenge his loss to Weidman and continue his push toward title contention. Hall is the superior striker; he has a highlight reel of spectacular finishes to prove it, but it did him little good in the first fight.

High on confidence, Hall could find the sweet spot this time around, but I’m backing Weidman. Like how Gastelum derailed Hall in the final of The Ultimate Fighter Season 17 back in 2013, I believe Weidman will shut down the Jamaican with smothering wrestling.

Prediction: Weidman via decision.

Best Bet: Weidman by points at 3.00.

Alternative Bet: Weidman by KO/TKO/DQ/Points at 2.30.

Anthony Smith v Jimmy Crute (Light Heavyweight)

This should be a highly entertaining bout between two complete mixed martial artists. Crute (12-1) was originally scheduled to face Johnny Walker, but the Brazilian was forced to withdraw due to injury. Smith (34-16) is a trickier customer than Walker, but as the sixth-ranked contender, he’s a bigger meal ticket for Crute as well.

Unlike Walker, “Lionheart” is lethal on the feet AND the ground, having amassed 18 knockouts and 13 submissions. All three of his last wins were by tapout; he caught fellow former title challengers Volkan Oezdemir and Alexander Gustafsson back-to-back and mostly recently submitted Devin Clark to snap a two-fight losing skid. It’s this jiu-jitsu prowess that’ll probably cause Crute the most problems.

Whereas Smith has fought the who’s who at 205 pounds, including battling Jon “Bones” Jones for the belt, Crute’s a rising contender. The 13th-ranked Australian’s 4-1 in the UFC and coming off back-to-back first-round finishes. A win over Smith would be the biggest of his career by far and would likely see the 25-year-old crack the top 10.

I always lean toward experience and with Smith seen as the underdog, my money’s on him. He’s one of the toughest men to ever enter the Octagon (watch his fight against Glover Teixeira), so I can’t see Crute stopping him and doubt it’ll go to a decision.

Prediction: Smith via submission.

Best Bet: Smith by submission/points at 3.15

Alternative Bet: Smith at 2.60.

Quintin van Jaarsveld

Quintin Van Jaarsveld is a former MDDA-Sanlam SA Local Sports Journalist of the Year and a former three-time Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal Sports Journalist of the Year. Formerly the sports editor and Outstanding Journalist of the Year award winner at The Fever Media Group, deputy editor at eHowzit, editor at SARugby.com and senior staff writer at Rugby365.com, he boasts over 15 years’ experience and is currently a freelance sports writer.