Villarreal v Man United – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Villarreal host Man Utd at Estadio de la Cerámica on Tuesday evening in the UEFA Champions League. The visitors have sacked Ole Gunnar Solskjaer after some dire results and performances this season so Michael Carrick will take charge of the team. Unai Emery’s side lost the reverse meeting and needs a victory in this match to keep their chances of progression to the knockout stage in their own hands. Four of the previous five matches between these sides have ended in draws.

Villarreal Form

The Yellow Submarine sit a lowly 12th in La Liga with just three wins in their 13 matches. Under Unai Emery, they have been draw specialists and have taken a single point in seven of their league matches. After a 4-1 win away at Young Boys, they lost at Athletic Bilbao, drew 3-3 at home to Cadiz, and lost 2-0 at Valencia.

Emery made it six points from Champions League matchdays three and four with a 2-0 home win against Young Boys (Capoue 36’, Groeneveld 89’) and a 1-0 home win in La Liga against Getafe made it consecutive victories. They could only draw 1-1 at Celta Vigo over the weekend despite producing 2.72 xG to 0.91 xG for their opponents.

Villareal Team News

Right-back Serge Aurier is ineligible for the Champions League so Juan Foyth will start at right-back. Top striker Gerard Moreno is a serious doubt due to a hamstring problem. Winger Arnaut Danjuma has been excellent in the group stage so far but is also carrying a hamstring complaint and may miss out.

Midfield destroyer Etienne Capoue is touch and go after missing the draw at Celta Vigo. Nigerian winger Samuel Chukwueze is back after a long-term hamstring problem and is not expected to be fit enough to start but he is an option from the bench.

Villareal Motivation

Emery needs a win here really at home. A draw for Man Utd would keep them ahead of Villarreal with Young Boys to play in their final match. Atalanta is expected to beat the Swiss side and that would take them level with Villarreal. It would force the Spanish side to get a draw in Bergamo in their final match.

A defeat could mean needing to win in Italy on MD6 and would be a disaster, likely sending the club to the Europa League. Emery is likely to set up relatively defensively but his side completely outplayed Man Utd at Old Trafford and can be positive and confident in building up and keeping possession.

Man United Form

With seven defeats in their last 13 matches, Solskjaer was dismissed. Man Utd has been in awful form and the last straw was a 4-1 defeat at lowly Watford in a disastrous performance. Their last seven matches have seen 19 goals conceded.

A 4-2 loss at Leicester was followed by a late 3-2 win against Atalanta. Man Utd was then thrashed 5-0 at Old Trafford by Liverpool whilst the 3-0 win at Tottenham proved false dawn after that. Ronaldo’s late goal rescued a 2-2 draw at Atalanta before being outclassed 2-0 at home by Man City.

Man United Team News

Man Utd remains without Raphael Varane in defence but Harry Maguire is available before his one-match ban in the league. Edinson Cavani is injured upfront and Mason Greenwood has COVID-19 so both are absent, as is midfielder Paul Pogba.

Luke Shaw took a second knock to the head in two matches versus Watford and considering a concussion substitution was used, he is likely to miss this match. Alex Telles will deputize at left-back. Donny van de Beek is hoping to start in midfield after scoring against Watford whilst Fred should return to start.

Man United Motivation

United is sure to see a surge in motivation after a coaching change – “new manager effect” – whilst the side’s pride will be dented. They need a draw from this match so a conservative approach could be seen with a focus on being stronger defensively and harder to beat.

Key Stats

Villarreal has scored 6 of their last 8 goals in the first half

Villarreal has scored first in 4 of their last 6 matches

Villarreal have drawn 7 of their 13 La Liga matches

4 of the last 5 meetings between these sides have ended in draws

Man Utd have conceded first in 5 of their last 6 matches

Man Utd have conceded 11 first-half goals in their last 6 matches

Man Utd have lost 7 of their last 13 matches

Man Utd’s Ronaldo has scored 5 UCL goals this season in 4 matches

Verdict

The hosts are hard to beat whilst Man Utd needs a response to Solskjaer’s sacking. A draw is a good result on the road for Man Utd and that looks the best bet, as does a low-scoring match with Carrick expected to focus on the side’s defensive shape. Villarreal could be missing a lot of their firepower too.

Multiple Leg: Man Utd win/draw double chance at 1.44
Value Bet: Draw at 3.35
Alternative Bet: Man Utd win/draw double chance + Under 3.5 goals at 2.15
Alternative Bet: Villarreal to score the first goal at 2.20
Goalscorer Tip: Ronaldo anytime goalscorer – ODDS TBC
Correct Score Tip: Villarreal 1-1 Man Utd at 7.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis