Roma v Man Utd – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Roma host Man Utd at the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday night in the Europa League semi-final second leg. The hosts trail 6-2 on aggregate and need a miracle to overturn that scoreline especially considering their very poor Serie A form. Man Utd had the weekend off after protests saw their match against Liverpool postponed. The hosts this week announced that Jose Mourinho will take over as coach from the start of next season

Roma Form

Roma are in very poor form. Their last 14 Serie A matches have yielded just 15 points. After being thrashed 6-2 at Old Trafford in the first leg, they lost 2-0 at Sampdoria over the weekend. That triggered the club to announce that Paulo Fonseca will depart at the end of this season to be replaced by Jose Mourinho.

With five defeats in their last eight league matches and four in their last five in all competitions, Roma won’t hold much confidence of turning this tie around. They reached this stage with a fortunate victory over Ajax in the quarter-finals. The Expected Goals for that tie read 3.9 to 1.5 in favour of Ajax but Roma somehow got through 3-2 on aggregate.

Roma Team News

Fonseca welcomes back Gianluca Mancini at centre back for this match, and he will play in the back three. Roma are suffering an injury crisis. The first leg saw three injuries in the first half. Jordan Veretout pulled up and Gonzalo Villar could start in his place here. Goalkeeper Pau Lopez hurt his shoulder so Antonio Mirante could start whilst Leonardo Spinazzola is also out so Bruno Peres should play.

Pedro and Stephan El Shaarawy are likely to be missing in wide areas and holding midfield Amadou Diawara missed the Sampdoria match and is doubtful. Nicolo Zaniolo misses out in midfield with a long-term injury problem and left back Riccardo Calafiori is out at left back

Roma Motivation

Roma have little hope of a comeback and looked very flat physically against Sampdoria. The side has a wrath of injuries and can’t qualify for the Europa League in Serie A due to being a whopping nine points off the side above them in Serie A. They have nothing but pride to play for.

It’s not clear if Mourinho’s appointment ahead of next season will motivate the players, but perhaps some will know their new boss is watching and will try to impress. In their current form, a draw from this match would be credible and they would surely take that if it were offered to them now.

Man Utd Form

Man Utd’s match against Liverpool on Sunday was postponed due to fan protests. The side are ending the season in strong form with just one loss in their last 22 matches as they were beaten 3-1 by Leicester in the FA Cup for that sole defeat. Their last 12 matches have nine wins and they’ve scored 19 goals in their last seven matches including winning 6-2 against Roma last week.

Man Utd are 24 away league matches without losing and have conceded three goals in their last ten on their travels. Across all competitions, they have lost just once in 17 away matches with seven clean sheets in nine.

Man Utd Team News

Man Utd remain without Anthony Martial up front and long-term injury victim Phil Jones in defence. The fact that United didn’t play over the weekend possibly means that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will rotate less in this match to keep his big name players fully match fit.

Ahead of playing Aston Villa away, perhaps two or three changes will be made at best with Nemanja Matic, Eric Bailly and Dan James looking the ones most likely to be trusted to see out this tie safely. David de Gea will play in goal again as he seems to be the goalkeeper for the Europa League. Edinson Cavani could start when he may have needed a rest against Liverpool with only two off days between matches, but he has now had a week to recover.

Man Utd Motivation

Solskjaer’s aims for this match will be to avoid any scares, to avoid injuries, to maintain match fitness and to also conserve some energy ahead of the trip to Aston Villa this weekend. A 0-0 draw or 1-0 win would be excellent and the coach will want to ensure his side’s fine away record is upheld.

Expect a strong XI but lots of early changes once it’s clear that the result is not in doubt, much like against Granada in the last round.

Key Stats

Roma have won 1 of their last 8 Serie A matches (L5, D2)

Roma have lost 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions

Roma are 11 home matches unbeaten in the Europa League (W7, D4)

United are 24 away PL matches without defeat

Man Utd have conceded 3 goals in their last 10 away PL matches

Man Utd have won their last 3 away Europa League matches

Roma will be playing for pride and won’t want to lose at home with new coach Jose Mourinho watching. Man Utd will want to avoid defeat and any scary moments on the road. This feels like a match where a draw suits everyone and it may be the best bet. An alternative could be another clean sheet on the road for Solskjaer’s team and a narrow victory.

Best Bet: Draw at 4.00

Alternative Bet: Man Utd to win by 1 goal at 3.65

Correct Score: 0-0 at 13.00 or Roma 0-1 Man Utd at 9.75

Anytime Goal scorer: Mason Greenwood at 2.60