RB Leipzig v Man City – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

RB Leipzig faces Man City in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night. The sides have met four times in the last two years with City winning big at home but not winning in Germany on either trip (one draw, one loss). The hosts have won seven of their nine matches this season whilst City have surprisingly lost twice in the last week.

RB Leipzig Form

It’s been a strong season so far for the Red Bulls. It began with a Dani Olmo hattrick to thrash Bayern Munich 3-0 in the German Super Cup. A 3-2 loss followed in the first round of the Bundesliga away at Bayer Leverkusen. Nine points and 11 goals scored followed in their next three league matches.

Marco Rose’s side began the Champions League by winning 3-1 at Young Boys with 2.67 xG and 21 shots. After a 1-0 win at Borussia Monchengladbach, they beat lower league Wehen Wiesbaden 3-1 away in the DFK Pokal Cup. On Saturday, they led Bayern Munich 2-0 at home at half-time but could only draw 2-2. They allowed their opponents 1.70 xG in the second half.

RB Leipzig Team News

Marco Rose have several injured players for this match. Right-back Benjamin Henrichs was injured against Bayern Munich and won’t play any part. Defender Willi Orban is ruled out with a knee injury and young centre-back El Chadaille Bitshiabu is absent too.

Further forward, Kevin Kampl missed out in midfield with a hip problem, and two key forwards are also set to be ruled out. Timo Werner hasn’t played for three weeks due to a back injury and this match comes too soon. Winger Dani Olmo sprained his knee on international duty last month and won’t return for a few more weeks.

RB Leipzig Motivation

The Red Bulls will have belief from being unbeaten in two home matches vs. Man City. They will play to win the fixture and try to take control of the group.

Rose’s side plays an attacking 4-4-2 and won’t sit deep against City unless they’re leading. They ceded the ball to Bayern in the last match, only having 34% possession after half-time.

Man City Form

City won their first eight matches of this season if we include a victory on penalties over Sevilla in the UEFA Super Cup after it ended 1-1. An Erling Haaland hattrick saw a 5-1 home win over Fulham despite just seven shots in the match. They went to West Ham and won 3-1 from behind with 3.63 xG and 29 shots.

Having beaten Red Star Belgrade 3-1 on matchday one, they squeezed 2-0 past Nottingham Forest in the league. Surprisingly, two consecutive defeats have followed. They only produced 0.57 xG in a 1-0 Carabao Cup loss away to Newcastle. On Saturday, City were beaten 2-1 at Wolves. Whilst they had 23 shots, they only totalled 0.87 xG as their opponents defended solidly.

Man City Team News

Pep Guardiola is delighted to have Rodri available after missing two of the last three matches due to a domestic ban. Matheus Nunes is expected to drop to the bench to allow Rodri’s return. Kevin De Bruyne and John Stones remain sidelined with injuries.

Bernardo Silva is carrying a niggle and misses out. Josko Gvardiol will start against his former club with Nathan Ake se to make way. Guardiola is set to play Phil Foden down the right and will have to choose between Jack Grealish and Jeremy Doku on the left wing.

Man City Motivation

After two successive defeats, City will be very eager to get back to winning ways. They haven’t won away at RB Leipzig before, and a victory will put them in a great position in the group.

Guardiola’s side have been business-like this season and won’t open up too much. They will control the spaces and keep the ball to both dominate but also as a way of self-preservation.

Key Stats

RB Leipzig are 2 home games unbeaten vs Man City (1 win, 1 draw)

RB Leipzig have won 7 of their 9 matches this season (1 loss)

8 of RB Leipzig’s 9 matches this season have seen Over 2.5 goals

Man City have drawn their last 5 away matches in the Champions League

Man City are winless in 3 trips to Germany (LDD)

Man City’s Haaland has scored 12 goals in 11 CL matches for Man City (4 at home vs. RB Leipzig last season)

Man City won 7-0 when the sides last met (at the Etihad)

Verdict

Man City’s away form in Europe hasn’t been great recently. However, they’re a wounded animal after successive defeats and will want to win this one. Haaland is due some goals after a slight drought of late.

Best Bet: Man City win at 1.71

Value Bet: Man City win and Over 2.5 goals at 2.55

Goalscorers Tip: Haaland to score 2 or more goals at 4.30