RB Leipzig v Man City – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

RB Leipzig faces Man City in the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League. The hosts are in the Bundesliga title race and have been rejuvenated since Marco Rose took over. City have been playing much better in recent weeks but still conceded a late equaliser in their last match. Pep Guardiola is chasing a first win in this competition since 2011.

RB Leipzig Form

The last defeat for the Red Bulls have lost just since September with Marco Rose doing an incredible job. They went into the Qatar World Cup break on a run of 13 matches without defeat. They got some incredible results prior to the hiatus including beating Real Madrid 3-2 at home and winning 4-0 away at Shakhtar.

Since the resumption, they’ve had a few Bundesliga slip-ups. A 1-1 home draw with Bayern Munich was a decent enough result and they followed it by winning 6-1 at Schalke and 2-1 at home to Stuttgart. A 0-0 draw at FC Koln followed as the coach moved to a back three. They then lost 2-1 at home to title rivals Union Berlin but bounced back over the weekend – winning 3-0 at Wolfsburg.

RB Leipzig Team News

Marco Rose has a big call to make over reigning Bundesliga player of the year, Christopher Nkunku. He only made his injury comeback over the weekend, playing 21 minutes and grabbing an assist. It is probably too early for him to start this one. Captain and goalkeeper, Peter Gulacsi is out so Janis Blaswich will continue in goal.

Creative forward Dani Olmo suffered a hamstring injury which rules him out so Emile Forsberg will play off Andre Silva with Timo Werner down the left flank. Midfielder Konrad Laimer has signed a pre-contract to join Bayern Munich next season and isn’t certain to start despite scoring from the bench over the weekend. On-loan defender Abdou Diallo is expected to be absent in defence.

RB Leipzig Motivation

Most of RB’s matches tend to have over 2.5 goals, often with both teams on target. Marco Rose has switched formation a lot but has been using a front four in recent fixtures at times and will attack Man City here.

They know a defeat or even a draw at home will make it very difficult to qualify so they have to go all out to win this first leg.

Man City Form

City haven’t been quite themselves so far this season. Their longest winning run in the league is just three matches. After beating Arsenal 3-1 at the Emirates a week ago to go top, they could only draw 1-1 at Nottingham Forest on Saturday having 2.40 xG and outshooting their opponents 23-4.

Prior to this week’s surprise draw, they had dropped a lot of other points. They lost 2-1 at Man Utd having attempted just six shots and after three successive league wins, they were beaten 1-0 at Tottenham in their annual defeat in North London. A 3-1 home win against Aston Villa preceded the Arsenal one, making it look as if a long winning streak was on the horizon.

Man City Team News

Pep Guardiola has his full squad available except for John Stones. Even with that injury at the back, he has a tough dilemma over which two centre-backs to choose with Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji pushing for starts after strong seasons so far.

Further forward, Riyad Mahrez is set for a recall down the right wing with Phil Foden expected to drop to the bench. Guardiola must decide whether he uses a pure back three or brings in Ake as a genuine left-back, therefore pushing Bernardo Silva higher up from his hybrid role of recent matches.

Man City Motivation

City will go to Germany to win this match. Their approach will be slightly dictated by the team selection and whether it’s a back four or a back three.

A draw would be a decent enough result but Guardiola doesn’t know how to set up to draw matches so his side will look to dominate the ball whilst guarding against the transition threat of Werner especially.

Key Stats

RB Leipzig have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 6 home UCL matches

RB Leipzig have lost just once in 20 matches unbeaten (15 wins)

Leipzig have seen Both Teams Score in 10 of their last 13 league matches

Man City have 1 win in their last 5 away matches in all competitions (LLLWD)

City have 1 win in their last 5 away matches in the Champions League, drawing 0-0 in three of those

Man City have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 away UCL fixtures

Verdict

This should be a good game but it is a difficult one to call. City rarely concedes on the road in Europa whilst RB Leipzig’s matches at home see plenty of goals. Their last two meetings produced three goals and nine goals so perhaps that is the route to take. Haaland is facing a Bundesliga side and was previously at RB Salzburg so will be desperate to score.

Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.60

Alternative Bet: Man City win at 1.80

Alternative Bet: Man City win and Haaland to score anytime at 2.64

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis