PSG v Dortmund – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

PSG host Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg on Tuesday. BVB won 1-0 in the first leg but face a side who beat them 2-0 in Paris earlier this season. PSG have scored in 36 of their last 38 home matches in the Champions League.

PSG Form

PSG didn’t play over the weekend and had a full week to prepare for this second leg. They have won Ligue 1 already and reached the Coupe de France final by beating Rennes 1-0. In the last round, they lost 3-2 at home to Barcelona before winning 4-1 in Spain against ten men to progress to semis.

They won successive matches 4-1 in the league, at home to Lyon and away to Lorient. A 3-3 draw vs Le Havre preceded the first leg. Despite having 14 shots (10 inside the box) and hitting the woodwork twice in Dortmund, they lost the first leg 1-0.

PSG Team News

Luis Enrique remains without Presnel Kimbembe and Layvin Kurwawa in defence due to injury and Lucas Hernandez suffered a serious knee injury in the first leg and will play no part.

Lucas Beraldo is expected to replace Hernandez at centre back with Milan Skriniar left on the bench. Luis Enrique may name an otherwise unchanged XI. The only potential change is Randal Kolo Muani coming into the XI in place of Bradley Barcola.  

PSG Motivation

PSG are desperate to win this competition. They will attack at home and look to win by at least two goals in 90 minutes.

There may be an air of nervousness in Paris. A Dortmund goal could spark anxiety in the crowd and the players.

Dortmund Form

Dortmund had been on a run of one loss in 16 matches before losing three of six matches going into the first leg. They won 2-0 at Bayern Munich but lost 1-0 at home to Stuttgart and 2-1 at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg.

After winning 2-1 with ten men away to Borussia Monchengladbach, they overturned the deficit in the home leg vs Atleti. A 4-2 victory in Germany sealed a spot in the semi-finals. After a 1-1 home draw vs Bayer Leverkusen, lost 4-1 away to RB Leipzig. The first leg ended 1-0 vs PSG before a 5-1 home victory over Augsburg whilst resting most of their XI.

Dortmund Team News

Edin Terzic is without left back Ramy Bensebaini due to injury. Sebastien Haller has some chance of being involved after his ankle problems.

Winger Donyell Malen started, and scored, in the weekend victory. He could start this one in preference to Karim Adeyemi, who is also carrying a knock. Marco Reus is set to be on the bench ahead of his summer departure.

Dortmund Motivation

BVB sit fifth in the Bundesliga and are giving all attention to the Champions League. They know they probably need a goal in this one as PSG will score.

A counter-attacking approach is expected. Dortmund will try to eke out a draw in Paris to reach the final.

Key Stats

PSG have scored in 36 of their last 38 home UCL matches (conceded in 6 of last 9)

PSG have won 10 of their last 13 home UCL matches

PSG have lost 1 of their last 33 matches (23 wins)

Dortmund have lost just 3 of their last 8 matches (1 loss in 16 before that)

Dortmund lost 2-0 away to PSG in the group stage (1 shot on target)

Verdict

The hosts are big favourites for this match. The question is whether they can win by two goals in 90 minutes. PSG tend to leak home goals at home.

Best Bet: PSG to qualify at 1.66

Value Bet: PSG win and both teams to score at 2.70

Build-a-Bet: PSG win + Mbappe to score anytime at 2.03

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis