PSG v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

PSG host AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. The hosts have three points from two matches whilst Milan have drawn 0-0 in both matches in the competition so far. This is the first meeting between these giants since 2001.

PSG Form

PSG have been an inconsistent team under Luis Enrique. After winning just two of their opening five Ligue 1 matches. A 3-2 home win at home to Nice preceded their opening UEFA Champions League match, a 2-0 home win over Dortmund. They had 68% of the ball and 2.44 Expected Goals in that win.

After thrashing bitter rivals Marseille 5-0, they drew 0-0 at Clermont as they squandered five ‘big chances. A 4-1 humbling at Newcastle followed with cheap giveaways in deep areas a feature of that loss. PSG have since refocused and won both league matches, 3-1 at Rennes and 3-0 at home to Strasbourg on Saturday despite resting several players.

PSG Team News

The weekend match saw full rests for Manuel Ugarte, Achraf Hakimi, and Milan Skriniar. All three will return to the starting XI as will subs from the Strasbourg win: Ousmane Dembele and Randal Kolo Muani.

Marco Asensio remains injured up front and Presnel Kimpembe won’t play any part despite returning to training. Left-back Nuno Mendes is ruled out until January and young midfielder Warren Zaire-Emery will also play no part here. Fabian Ruiz and Vitinha are set to start in midfield along with Ugarte.

PSG Motivation

This has become a key game for PSG after their big defeat on matchday two. A home win here makes things look a lot rosier in the group.

Enrique’s side looks to dominate matches and they take big risks at the back. A draw would feel like a loss here and put pressure on them to win in Milan on matchday four.

AC Milan Form

Prior to Sunday’s defeat to Juventus, Milan had seven wins and one loss in eight Serie A matches this season. That defeat was a 5-1 thrashing to rivals Inter Milan. A 0-0 home draw on matchday one saw 25 shots but no goals. Three Serie A wins including 2-0 vs Lazio at home followed.

A 0-0 draw in Germany vs Dortmund was a decent result. Prior to the international hiatus, they won 1-0 at Genoa thanks to a late goal. Sunday’s match versus Juve saw a depleted Milan XI lose 1-0 to a 63rd minute goal having had Malick Thiaw red carded after 40 minutes. Milan put up just 0.31 xG and one shot on target.

AC Milan Team News

Stefano Pioli welcomes back goalkeeper Mike Maignan and left-back Theo Hernandez after they missed the Juventus defeat due to suspension. The midfield remains somewhat depleted with Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Ismael Bennacer ruled out. Rade Krunic returned on Sunday and could start this one.

Samuel Chukwueze is another absentee in attack so Christian Pulisic should start on the right wing once again. Despite his red card in the last match, Malick Thiaw is available for European action and is set to be preferred to Simon Kjaer and Pierre Kalulu.

AC Milan Motivation

The Rossoneri have two draws from two matches. Despite that, a point on the road here would be a great result.

Pioli’s side tends to have plenty of possession, but they could sit deeper here to guard against the pace of Mbappe and Muani.

Key Stats

PSG have won 7 of their last 9 home matches in the Champions League

PSG have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home UCL matches.

Milan are winless in 5 Champions League matches (DLLDD)

Milan have failed to score in 4 UCL matches.

Milan have seen Both Teams to Score No in 5 of their last 6 away UCL matches.

Verdict

This should be a tight match with a lot at stake. PSG needs a response to the Newcastle defeat and should eke out three points against a goal-shy Milan side in this competition. A 1-0 win could be the order of the day.

Best Bet: PSG win at 1.74

Value Bet: PSG win to zero at 3.15

Multiplier Leg: PSG win/draw double chance + Under 3.5 goals at 1.80