Newcastle v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Newcastle host AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday night. In order to progress, the Magpies need a victory in this match and for Dortmund to get a draw or better against PSG in the other group match. A draw would see Eddie Howe’s team go into the Europa League.

Newcastle Form

Newcastle’s last seven matches have yielded just two wins. They’re winless in five away matches with four losses but their home form is very strong. Since losing 1-0 at home to Dortmund on matchday five, they’ve beaten Arsenal 1-0, Chelsea 4-1 and Man Utd 1-0 at St. James’ Park.

The win against Chelsea came after successive away losses, 2-0 at both Dortmund and Bournemouth. A 1-1 draw at PSG two weeks ago saw a 97th-minute goal conceded from a VAR error. Having bounced back in a dominant home win over Man Utd, it’s two damaging losses in a row for the Toon. They were beaten 3-0 at Everton and then 4-1 at Tottenham in their last two.

Newcastle Team News

Eddie Howe has around ten injuries to navigate. Dan Burn, Matt Targett, and Sven Botman are ruled out in defence so Tino Livramento will continue at left back. The midfield is also short of options with Sandro Tonali suspended and both Joe Willock and Elliot Anderson injured.

Sean Longstaff is fit again in the engine room and will compete with Lewis Miley to start. In the forward areas, Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes are unavailable. Callum Wilson is fit again but he will only feature as a substitute once again. Nick Pope is ruled out so Martin Dubravka will deputise.

Newcastle Motivation

Motivation is high for this match, and you could tell on Sunday that they had one eye on this clash already.

Eddie Howe’s side will play at a high tempo and go all out for the win. Qualification is not in their hands but they will be 100% focused on doing their part of the job.

AC Milan Form

Milan have been distinctly average in the last six weeks or so. Their last ten fixtures have seen five losses and they’ve shipped 17 goals in that streak. A 1-0 home loss to Juventus preceded a 3-0 defeat at PSG on matchday three. After throwing away a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 at Napoli, Milan lost 1-0 at home to Udinese.

A 2-1 win on matchday four at home to PSG kept qualification hopes alive. Unfortunately, they lost 3-1 at home to Dortmund two weeks ago. A 3-1 win over Frosinone may have followed but AC Milan lost again over the weekend, 3-2 at Atalanta.

AC Milan Team News

After seven months out injured, Stefano Pioli finally has Ismael Bennacer available again. After two substitute outings, he could start this one in midfield. The problem is the number of defensive injuries. Pierre Kalulu, Malick Thiaw, and Simon Kjaer are all ruled out, so Fikayo Tomori doesn’t have a reliable partner.

Either Theo Hernandez or Davide Calabria will have to deputise in central defence with Alessandro Florenzi covering one of them at fullback. Striker Noah Okafor is also ruled out for this match. Rafael Leao faces a fitness test and may not be able to play as more than a substitute.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan needs a win and then have to hope for PSG to lose at Dortmund. Nothing less than a win here would even see them reach the Europa League.

There is therefore zero to gain by playing for a draw. Despite their defensive injuries, they will have to open up and try to attack.

Key Stats

Newcastle have won their last 3 home matches

Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 7 matches

AC Milan have lost 5 of their last 10 matches

AC Milan have leaked 17 goals in their last 10 matches

Verdict

This match will surely see goals, seeing as both sides have to win. Newcastle are strong at home and faces an AC Milan side with only one natural central defender available. I see a home win by at least two goals.

Best Bet: Newcastle win at 1.90

Value Bet: Newcastle win (-1 handicap) at 3.20

Goalscorer Tip: Isak to score anytime at 2.40

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis