Man City v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Man City host Real Madrid at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night with a place in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals up for grabs. The sides played out a 3-3 thriller in the first leg last week. City have won their last three home matches vs Los Blancos, including 4-0 last season.

Man City Form

City have 20 wins in their last 24 matches and just one loss in 37 fixtures. They have drawn three of their last seven fixtures. A 1-1 draw at Liverpool saw them outplayed in the second half. A 2-0 home win over Newcastle followed in the FA Cup before a very tight 0-0 home draw vs Arsenal.

Guardiola’s team made light work of Aston Villa in a 4-1 win and then won 4-2 at Crystal Palace. The first leg six days ago saw a 3-3 draw in Madrid as City netted three long-range shots. On Saturday, a 5-1 home win vs Luton saw 4.32 xG produced and outshooting the Hatters 37-4.

Man City Team News

Pep Guardiola only had one injury doubt. John Stones has some niggles but should be fit to play this one. Kyle Walker is back and is set to start whilst Nathan Ake is competing with Josko Gvardiol for the left-back role.

Jack Grealish and Jeremy Doku are fighting for one spot. Kevin De Bruyne is hoping to be selected after playing no minutes in the first leg.

Man City Motivation

City’s title challenge was boosted by both rivals losing on Sunday. They will feel like another treble is possible this season.

Motivation for this match is very high. They will hope to repeat last season’s incredible performance to win 4-0 at home vs Los Blancos.

Real Madrid Form

Los Blancos are heading for the La Liga title and have been beaten just twice in all competitions this season. A 1-1 home draw vs RB Leipzig sealed a spot in the quarter-finals, 2-1 on aggregate. Convincing victories came next, 4-0 at home vs Celta Vigo and 4-2 away at Osasuna.

A 2-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao saw just 0.27 xG allowed to their opponents. Last week’s 3-3 draw vs Man City saw Los Blancos lead 2-1 and then trailed 3-2 in the match. On Saturday, a heavily-rotated Real Madrid won 1-0 at Mallorca with nine shots on target produced.

Real Madrid Team News

Ancelotti remains without injured goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and defender David Alaba. Aurélien Tchouaméni played in defence in the first leg but is suspended for this one. Nacho is set to start in his place.

Eder Militao has returned after knee surgery but it would be a risk for him to start this match. Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr. were given partial or full rests over the weekend and will return fully fresh for this key clash.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid will regret not winning this first leg. They will expect a very tough examination in this match.

Ancelotti’s side will look to stay alive in the tie and get through the first 20 minutes. A focus on counter attacks is the expected strategy for this one.

Key Stats

Man City have won their last 3 UCL home matches vs Real (4-3, 2-1 & 4-0)

Man City have won 20 of their last 24 matches.

Man City have seen BTTS Yes in 8 of their last 9 UCL matches.

Real Madrid have conceded in 7 of their last 9 away UCL matches.

Real Madrid have lost just 2 matches all season (1 loss in the last 37)

Real Madrid are unbeaten in 15 matches.

Verdict

This match looks likely to have goals for both teams. City should have too much for Real Madrid at home and are a good tip to make it four wins vs Los Blancos at the Etihad in a row.

Best Bet: Man City win at 1.62

Value Bet: Man City win and Both Teams to Score at 2.95

Anytime Goalscorers Tip: Haaland and Bellingham to both score anytime (90 mins) at 6.86

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis