PSG vs Man City | 2021-05-03

Man City host PSG at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday night in the UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg. Pep Guardiola’s side hold a 2-1 first leg lead having been dominated in the first 30 minutes in Paris before an excellent second half comeback. Neither of these sides have ever lifted the European Cup or Champions League and will want to make history this season.

Man City Form

City are having a superb season. They reached the semi-final stage after a 4-2 aggregate victory against Dortmund. After a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace over the weekend, they are just one win away from regaining the Premier League title and they lifted the Carabao Cup nine days ago.

Guardiola’s side have won 36 of their last 42 matches, keeping 25 clean sheets. They have been nothing short of imperious this season with rare blips coming in losing 1-0 at home to Leeds and 1-0 to Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final recently.

Man City Team News

Guardiola made eight changes for the weekend trip to Crystal Palace as only Ederson and either Fernandinho and Rodri are expected to start against PSG. Sergio Aguero got a goal against Palace and Benjamin Mendy was impressive but both are still likely to be substitutes.

The one change to the starting XI expected from the first leg in Paris is Oleksandr Zinchenko playing at left back in preference to Joao Cancelo.

Man City Motivation

City are hugely motivated to make it to the Champions League final and Guardiola is too. He has not won or even made the final of this competition since 2011 and his mass resting against Crystal Palace indicates that this match holds complete focus.

Expect City to try to start in the more aggressive and progressive fashion in which they finished the first leg in Paris. They know that scoring first will require PSG to score three times so they will attack but lots of ball possession as a defensive strategy is likely.

PSG Form

PSG still sit second in Ligue 1 with three matches to play as Lille lead the way. They reached the semi-final stage after the hardest possible route as they beat Barcelona and Bayern Munich on aggregate. That included 4-1 and 3-2 wins away from home.

In domestic competitions, PSG have won four matches in a row around their first leg home loss to Man City. A 3-2 win against Saint-Etienne was followed by a 5-0 win against Angers in the Coupe de France before a 3-1 win at Metz. PSG’s last match saw a 2-1 home win against Lens with a much-changed XI.

PSG Team News

PSG will be without the suspended Idrissa Gueye in midfield for this match after his red card in the first leg. Mauricio Pochettino made a wrath of changes for the Lens match as only his goalkeeper, two centre backs and Neymar played, whilst Gueye also started.

Kylian Mbappe missed out with a slight calf injury but looks certain to be fit for this match. Pochettino may decide to replace Gueye with a fourth attacker as opposed to bringing in a defensive midfielder like Ander Herrera. Moise Kean is the favourite to play in that case alongside Neymar, Mbappe and Angel di Maria.

PSG Motivation

PSG have huge motivation for this match. They are in a tight title race but would certainly accept second place in Ligue 1 to progress to the final for the second season in a row. Neymar has said he would “die” to make the final and Mbappe is expected to play even if slightly injured.

Having won at Barcelona and Bayern, belief will be very strong that they can win at the Etihad. They won’t be able to just sit back and wait for space to materialise on counter attacks like in both wins because they came in the first leg whereas City can now play like the away side if they so choose and keep men behind the ball.

Key Stats

City have lost just 3 of their last 42 matches (W36, D3)

City have lost 2 of their last 6 home matches

City have won their last 5 home CL matches, scoring 13 goals

PSG have lost 4 of their last 14 Ligue 1 matches

PSG have won 6 of their last 7 away CL matches, scoring 18 goals

PSG have scored in 44 of their last 46 UCL matches

Mbappe has scored 8 goals in 10 UCL matches this season

Prediction

PSG are not out of this tie. An early goal would put pressure on City and make it difficult for them to know how to approach the match. However, City look far more confident and secure in their approach and will have seen how best to play against Pochettino’s side in the second half of the first leg. This match should have plenty of goals as PSG get desperate but City are big favourites to avoid defeat and progress.

Best Bet: Man City win and both teams to score at 2.80

Alternative Bet: Draw with goals at 4.75

Wildcard Bet: PSG HT/Man City FT at 23.00

Goalscorer Tip: De Bruyne to score anytime at 2.80