Man City v Inter Milan – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Man City face Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League final on Saturday night in Istanbul. Pep Guardiola is chasing his first success in this competition since 2012 to complete a league, FA Cup, and European treble. Inter are looking to lift this trophy once again, having won it under Jose Mourinho in 2010. Two Italian clubs have already lost European finals this season; can Inter Milan buck the trend?

Man City Form

It’s been a remarkable campaign for City. Firstly, they retained the league title after 11 league victories in a row. The key win came against Arsenal (4-1) in late April to seize control of the title race. They beat Chelsea 1-0 to celebrate the title but they finished the league season by resting players and drawing 1-1 at Brighton and losing 1-0 at Brentford.

They reached this stage in Europe by beating Real Madrid 5-1 on aggregate. A fierce 1-1 away draw saw no substitutions made before a resounding 4-0 home win in the best performance from City under Guardiola. Last weekend, they beat Man Utd 2-1 in the FA Cup final. They allowed 1.87 Expected Goals but 0.79 xG of that was from a harsh penalty conceded.

Man City Team News

City have a clean bill of health for this match. Ruben Dias, Jack Grealish, and Kevin de Bruyne all returned from knocks to start in the FA Cup. Nathan Ake is also available after hamstring struggles in recent weeks but he will be amongst the subs.

The starting XI is almost certain to be the same 10 outfield that played against Man Utd at Wembley a week ago, which is the same team that thrashed Real Madrid 4-0. Ederson will be recalled in goal. Manuel Akanji will be preferred to Ake on the left of the defence and Grealish is set to start wide, with Bernardo Silva in preference to Riyad Mahez.

Man City Motivation

This is easily the biggest match in City’s history. They lost the 2021 final but this one has the treble up for grabs, something only achieved by one other English club in history.

Guardiola’s side will attack, look to dominate from the first minute and they won’t shut up shop if leading. With energetic subs like Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez, the last 30 minutes won’t see them time-wasting or settling for a 2-0 scoreline or something similar.

Inter Form

Not long ago, Simone Inzaghi was rumoured to be on the verge of the sack of four losses in seven matches. Things have completely turned around since winning 2-0 at Benfica in their Champions League quarter-final first leg. After a 3-3 draw in the second leg to progress, they won eight matches in a row.

Their streak included beating AC Milan 3-0 on aggregate in the semi-finals after a 2-0 away win and 1-0 home victory in the second leg. With eight changes to the XI and ten men for 49 minutes, they lost 3-1 away at Napoli. They responded to win the Coppa Italia by beating Fiorentina 2-1 in the final. Two successive wins followed in Serie A as they secured a third-place finish. Their final two matches were a 3-2 home win against Atalanta and a 1-0 win at Torino.

Inter Team News

Inter have a couple of question marks for this match. The biggest is whether to start Edin Dzeko or Romelu Lukaku as Lautaro Martinez’s strike partner. The latter is in great form and could be a match-winner, but he also offers a threat from the bench. Midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan has been carrying an injury for a few weeks but should be fit.

Argentine forward Joaquin Correa should be declared fit after a knock for his usual sub role. Marcelo Brozovic will be benched if Mkhitaryan is fit. Left wingback Federico Dimarco will return from a rest and Milan Skriniar has a chance of making the bench before his free transfer to PSG.

Inter Motivation

Inter will be hugely motivated to cause an upset. They know they are massive underdogs and have nothing to lose in this match.

They will play quite defensively to block space for City to exploit. Martinez and either Dzeko or Lukaku will play as a front two on the counter-attack. Inter will hope to score first and protect that lead in a back five. If they need to open up at 1-0 down, City could beat them by a large scoreline.

Key Stats

Man City’s Erling Haaland has scored 52 goals this season (12 in the Champions League)

Man City are unbeaten in 18 UCL matches in 90 minutes

City have won 19 of their last 23 matches

Inter have won 11 of their last 12 matches (all competitions)

Inter have lost just once in 11 UEFA Champions League matches (7 wins, 3 draws)

Inter have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 Champions League matches (5 in KO stages)

Verdict

This match sees City as heavy favourites. You can never rule out an upset but if Guardiola’s side scores first, they could win by a very healthy margin. Inter have a strong defence so their best chance of victory is scoring first and holding on for dear life.

Best Bet: Man City HT/Man City FT (90 mins) at 2.20

Alternative Bet: Man City Win -1 spread (90 mins) at 2.20

Alternative Bet: Man City win and Haaland anytime goalscorer (90 mins) at 1.98

Value Bet: Man City win -2 spread (90 mins) at 4.10

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis