Real Madrid against Liverpool is probably one of the most exciting UEFA Champions League finals in recent times. Both teams met in 2019 when Los Blancos beat the Reds 3-1 thanks to a brace by Gareth Bale, after Sadio Mane had equalised Karim Benzema’s opener. All goals notably fell in the second half and if Real Madrid’s route to the final is anything to go by, we could see some similar patterns in this game and I tried to find some value bets.
10 of Real’s 14 goals in the knockout stages have come in the second half, with their notable comebacks against PSG, Chelsea, and Manchester City. What many may not have realised is that Liverpool have scored as many goals in the second half during the knockout stages, also netting 10 of their 13 goals in the second interval.
Tip: Half With Most Goals, 2nd Half: 1.83 Odds
Another bet that comes to mind is second-half goals over 1.5 at 1.83 odds.
If both teams continue their path to the final, the game should also produce goals. Liverpool’s last 4 games in the quarters and semi-finals had over 2.5 goals and 3 of their 6 knockout stage games had over 2.5 goals & BTTS. Meanwhile, Real’s last 5 games in the competition had even over 3.5 goals and all of them had over 2.5 goals & BTTS, with only their first leg in the round of 16 being the outlier.
Tip: BTTS And Over 2.5 Goals: 2.05 Odds
In 5 of the 6 knockout stage games, Real Madrid were beaten on corners by their opposition, while Liverpool have had more corners than their opponents in 5 of their 6 knockout stage games
Tip: Liverpool Most Corners: 1.35 Odds
Karim Benzema has scored 15 goals in 11 Champions League games this season and could still break Cristiano Ronaldo’s record from 2013/14, when he netted 17 times. 10 of Benzema’s goals have come in the knockout stages.
Tip: Benzema To Score: 2.2 Odds
Eder Militao (4), Dani Carvajal, Casemiro, and Ferland Mendy (all 3) would be my picks if you are looking for yellow cards. It will be a heated affair and Real’s full-backs (like Carvajal and Mendy, if fit) will face faster players in Mane and Salah.
Tip: Dani Carvajal Yellow-Careded: 2.65 Odds, Ferland Mendy Yellow-Carded:4 Odds
It’s Liverpool’s 10th European Cup/Champions League final and they won 6 so far. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have won 13 out of their 16 finals, including their last 7 in a row. When both teams met in 2017/18, Real won 3-1. But against all odds, my money would be on Liverpool to win this one. I believe they have the stronger overall team and IF (BIG if) they can keep Karim Benzema out and need to get drawn into Real’s emotional football, Jurgen Klopp’s side should win.
Tip: Liverpool To Win: 2.1 Odds
For those who like the higher odds, they can even try Liverpool win & BTTS at 3.75 odds.
For those who believe in Real Madrid, they could look at a crazy bet like Los Blancos to win from behind at 14 odds. They have come from behind to win 2 of their 6 knockout stage games.
Real’s games in the knockout stages also had another regular pattern: shots on target. Their games from the last 16 to the final had 8, 11, 10, 11, 11, and 12 shots on target and although Liverpool’s games had fewer shots on target, it’s worth a shot considering we’re expecting a high-scoring final.
Tip: 11+ Shots On Target Between Both Teams: 2.5 Odds
Other bets to look at in this market: Karim Benzema 1 shot on target from a header: 3.25 odds.
Mohamed Salah 2 shots on target at 2.5 odds.