Bayern Munich v Villarreal – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Bayern Munich faces Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League quarter-final second leg at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday. The Yellow Submarine were excellent in the first leg, taking a 1-0 victory. It was Die Roten’s first away loss in the competition in 25 matches. The hosts have won 12 of their last 13 home matches in Europe’s premier competition and will be confident of turning this around.

Bayern Form

Bayern are definitely stuttering of late in their results and their performances. Their last 11 matches have seen just six wins with three draws and two defeats in that run, a drop from their usual high standards. They reached this stage after an 8-2 aggregate win over Salzburg having drawn the away leg 1-1 (71% possession, 22 shots). They breezed through the second leg with a 7-1 success.

In the Bundesliga, they surprisingly only drew 1-1 with Bayer Leverkusen and with Hoffenheim on either side of the Salzburg second leg. Die Rote lost 1-0 to Villarreal in the first leg of the quarter-final and gave up lots of good chances (1.7xG conceded). With better finishing, they could be 3-0 down in the tie. Having rested some players, they beat Augsburg 1-0 this weekend.

Bayern Team News

Bayern remains without Corentin Tolisso in midfield and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting upfront. Bouna Sarr is doubtful at right-back but would not have started anyway. Alphonso Davies made his return from a heart problem in the first leg and should start here after being rested for the last match.

Leon Goretzka will surely partner Joshua Kimmich in midfield with Jamal Musiala dropping down to the bench. Leroy Sane could again be the odd man out in attack. If Goretzka plays, it will mean Bayern are much stronger than in the first leg.

Bayern Motivation

As against Salzburg, Bayern will throw everything at Villarreal with attacking fullbacks and a front four. Goretzka will also break into the box. Once in front, they will go for the kill and keep attacking relentlessly.

This approach could suit their opponents, who are very effective in counter-attack.

Villarreal Form

The Yellow Submarine reached this stage after a 4-1 aggregate win over Juventus. Having drawn 1-1 at home in the first leg, they won 3-0 in Torino in a superb counter-attacking and rear-guard display. They beat Bayern Munich 1-0 in the first leg of the quarter-final but it feels like they should have scored a couple more goals with the chances they created.

Their recent La Liga form has been very poor as they’ve fallen completely out of the top four race. Their last five league matches have seen three defeats. They were beaten 1-0 at Osasuna and 1-0 at Cadiz. A 2-0 loss at Levante followed. Their match over the weekend saw a 1-1 home draw with Athletic Bilbao. Emery rested his entire starting XI.

Villarreal Team News

Unai Emery rested his entire team from the first leg for the weekend draw against Bilbao. He was able to welcome Samuel Chukwueze back into the starting XI and that increases his options for this second leg with striker Paco Alcacer also fit again.

Only one change is expected from the first leg. Francis Coquelin could drop out to allow Alfonso Pedraza to play down the left. That would allow a switch to a more balanced flat 4-4-2 shape.

Villarreal Motivation

Motivation is extremely high. They have basically written off La Liga to put all enjoy this the Champions League and rightfully so. Having rested everyone for the weekend, Villarreal should be really fresh and ready to run themselves into the ground.

It will be a low block and very tight, organised lines with the focus being on fast counter attacks – the same approach they used away to Juventus.

Key Stats

Bayern have lost 2 of their last 30 CL matches

Bayern have won 8 of their last 10 in the CL (31 goals scored)

Bayern Munich have scored 20 goals in their last 4 matches home CL matches

Villarreal have lost 3 of their last 5 matches (La Liga)

Villarreal have scored in 8 of their 9 CL matches this season

Villarreal have won their last 3 away CL matches, at Young Boys, Atalanta, and Juventus

Verdict

This should be a good game. At times, it will look like an attack vs defence exercise with the hosts expected to have around 70% possession. The visitors have enough to score in the match but Bayern looks likely to score the goals needed to progress in this tie. They also have the potential to blow anyone away on their day so the spread option is worth considering.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win and over 2.5 goals at 1.60
Alternative Bet: Both teams to score over 2.5 goals at 1.95
Spread option: Bayern Munich (-2 goals) at 2.65
Goalscorer Tip: Lewandowski to score 2 or more goals at 2.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis