Barcelona v Bayern Munich– Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Barcelona host Bayern Munich at Camp Nou on Wednesday in a must-win match for the Catalan giants. Anything less than a victory and Xavi’s side will drop into the Europa League. The task is made all the more difficult as Die Roten have lost just two of their last 33 Champions League matches. Barca have lost their last eight matches against Bayern by a 29-4 aggregate score.

Barcelona Form

Barcelona went into the reverse fixture against Bayern with five wins in six matches to start the season. Since then, they’ve lost three of nine matches including 2-0 in Bavaria to Julian Nagelsmann’s side. They lost 1-0 at Inter Milan on matchday three and came back from 2-1 and 3-2 down to draw 3-3 with Inter at Camp Nou.

After that very damaging matchday four results, they lost 3-1 to rivals Real Madrid in La Liga. Xavi’s side have bounced back well from that dip (three losses in seven) by beating Villarreal 3-0 and Athletic Bilbao 4-0 at home in their last two La Liga fixtures.

Barcelona Team News

Xavi has some issues at the back to deal with. Andreas Christensen and Ronald Araujo are both absent and Sergi Roberto is out with a shoulder injury sustained over the weekend. Hector Bellerin could start at right back otherwise it could be Jules Kounde if Gerard Pique is handed a place in the XI at centre back.

Memphis Depay is injured up front and Gavi is a doubt too. Both Ferran Torres and Ousmane Dembele will hope to start in wide areas after scoring this past weekend. Frenkie De Jong will hope to keep his place in the XI alongside Sergio Busquets.

Barcelona Motivation

Barcelona really needs to win this match. A victory would mean they have a chance of going through if they take six points from their next two matches and Inter Milan doesn’t win either of their final two fixtures.

Barca took the game to Bayern in the reverse fixture and were very good in the opening 47 minutes before falling away. They will again look to play on the front foot.

Bayern Form

Bayern secured qualification by beating Barcelona 2-0 at home in September. A shock 1-0 defeat at Augsburg followed in the league meaning they had taken just 12 points from their first seven league fixtures.

They have since won six of their next seven matches, including taking the expected six points off Viktoria Plzen in the Champions League, 5-0 at home and 4-2 away. That latter fixture preceded a 5-0 home win against Freiburg. Their last two games saw a 5-2 cup win at Augsburg and a 2-0 win at Hoffenheim over the weekend.

Bayern Team News

There are four injuries for Bayern to contend with. Three starting XI players are absent in goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, defender Lucas Hernandez, and winger Leroy Sane. Backup right back Bouna Sarr also missed out due to injury.

Sven Ulreich is set to deputise in goal whilst Matthijs De Ligt will start in central defence. Sadio Mane was only a substitute this past weekend but should return to play up front in preference to Eric Choupo-Moting.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern have already qualified and only needs one point to guarantee top spot in the group. That may mean they’re not absolutely 100% focused on this match. However, they will want to extend their hoodoo over Barca by winning this fixture.

In the first match between the sides, Bayern were poor in the first half but stepped on the pedal after half-time to win at a relative canter.

Key Stats

Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 meetings against Bayern

Barca have won lost 4 of their last 10 home CL matches, conceding 24 goals

Barca have lost 2 of their last 3 CL matches

Bayern have lost just 2 of their last 33 CL matches

Bayern have scored 3+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches against Barca

Bayern have won their last 8 matches against Barca (29-4 aggregate)

Verdict

Barca should be more motivated for this match and are playing at home. However, their awful record against Bayern can’t be ignored nor can their recent struggles in this competition (including at home). A win for Die Roten on the road looks like the best option.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win/draw double chance at 1.64
Value Bet: Bayern Munich win at 2.80
Multiplier Leg: Bayern Munich/draw double chance and over 2.5 goals at 2.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis