Atalanta v Arsenal – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Atalanta host Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League on Thursday. The hosts won the Europa League last season but have made a shaky start to this campaign. The Gunners have earned 10 points from 12 in their league matches this season but may be distracted by Sunday’s trip to title rivals Man City.

Atalanta Form

Atalanta had a great season last time out, winning the Europa League to end a 61-year trophy drought. They lost just once in their final 11 matches and comprehensively defeated Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in the final. This season has not started well due to disruption in the squad.

They began by losing the UEFA Super Cup 2-0 to Real Madrid before a 4-0 win away at Lecce. A 2-1 win at Torino followed, despite having 3.14 xG (compared to Lecce’s 2.38 xG). However, they suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat away to Inter Milan. After the FIFA break, they managed to bounce back, beating Fiorentina 3-2 at home with three first-half goals from just four shots.

Atalanta Team News

There are two long-term injuries for coach Gian Piero Gasperini to contend with. Striker Gianluca Scamacca is out after undergoing knee surgery, and young defender Giorgio Scalvini is similarly sidelined.

The defense is likely to be weakened by the absence of key center-back Rafael Toloi, while Ben Godfrey is also set to miss out. Sead Kolašinac is doubtful for the match against his former club. Odilon Kossounou, signed on loan from Bayer Leverkusen, could start in defense.

Atalanta Motivation

Atalanta’s focus has been inconsistent this season, but a first-ever meeting with Arsenal will be a strong motivator.

They will look to control space, using fast breaks and high pressing, as they did in the Europa League final against Bayer Leverkusen.

Arsenal Form

Arsenal ended last season with six straight league wins, although it wasn’t enough to secure the title. Notable victories in that run included a 5-0 win over Chelsea, a 3-2 win at Spurs, and a 1-0 win against Manchester United at Old Trafford. This season started with a 2-0 home win over Wolves.

A crucial 2-0 victory at Aston Villa followed, with Arsenal scoring twice in 11 minutes during the second half. Playing with ten men, they let a lead slip in a 1-1 home draw against Brighton. They bounced back from those dropped points to win 1-0 at Tottenham on Sunday. The Gunners were outshot 15-7 but only conceded 0.71 xG.

Arsenal Team News

The Gunners welcome Declan Rice back from suspension, but captain Martin Ødegaard is out injured. Mikel Arteta will also be without Mikel Merino and Takehiro Tomiyasu due to injuries.

Ricardo Calafiori is an injury doubt and is not expected to start in his homeland. Jorginho is likely to drop to the bench to accommodate Rice’s return.

Arsenal Motivation

Arsenal faces a trip to Manchester City on Sunday, and that could certainly be a distraction for Arteta and his players.

They will aim to win in Bergamo but will want to conserve energy and avoid injuries.

Key Stats

Atalanta have lost 4 of their last 6 matches.

Atalanta have conceded 10 goals in their last 4 Champions League matches.

Arsenal’s Kai Havertz has scored 11 goals in his last 18 EPL appearances.

Arsenal have won 9 of their last 10 matches.

Arsenal lost 3 of their 5 away UCL matches last season.

Verdict

This match is difficult to call due to Arsenal’s upcoming trip to Man City on Sunday. They may not be fully focused, and this match could end in a draw. However, the Gunners should avoid defeat in Italy.

Best Bet: Arsenal win/draw double chance + Under 3.5 goals at 1.86

Value Bet: Draw at 3.65

Goalscorer Tip: Kai Havertz to score anytime at 2.80

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis