Tottenham v Burnley – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Tottenham host Burnley in the FA Cup third round on Friday. Spurs haven’t lifted the FA Cup since 1991 or any trophy at all since 2008. The Clarets are 110 years without silverware in this competition and lost 5-2 to Tottenham when the teams met in September.

Spurs Form

Spurs have turned around a dire run of form in recent weeks. After surrendering five leads to lose four times and take just a single point, they have now won four of their last five matches. A 4-1 victory over Newcastle saw a 4-0 lead before a solid 2-0 victory at struggling Nottingham Forest.

A 2-1 win over Everton at home came despite giving the Toffees plenty of good chances in the match. A 4-2 thrashing at Brighton followed as they leaked seven ‘big chances’, 3.58 Expected Goals, and were 4-0 down after just over an hour. On Sunday, Tottenham got back to winning ways by beating Bournemouth 3-1 at home.

Spurs Team News

In defence, Cristian Romero and Micky Van de Ven are both out injured so Emerson Royal and Ben Davies will likely deputise again in central defence. Fraser Forster could get a rare start in goal. In midfield, Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr are on injury duty.

Rodrigo Bentancur is back from injury in midfield, but James Maddison is injured and Dejan Kulusevski is suspended. Heung-Min Son is away with Korea Republic so Bryan Gil and Alejo Veliz could be given a rare start. Ivan Perisic and Manor Solomon are injured.

Spurs Motivation

Spurs will surely take this competition seriously as they look to end their trophy drought. They have a full two weeks between league matches so full attention can go on this clash.

Postecoglou will attack as usual and won’t be focused on nullifying the opposition or keeping a clean sheet.

Burnley Form

After beating Luton 2-1 away in October, Kompany’s side have struggled. Seven successive losses followed in all competitions with very few goals scored and plenty being leaked. Their slump was suddenly ended emphatically in a 5-0 home win over Sheffield United. A 1-0 loss at Wolves followed.

After fighting hard to draw 1-1 at Brighton, they lost 2-0 at home to Everton as leaking twice in 25 minutes. A surprise 2-0 win at Fulham on the 23rd of December has proved a false dawn as two losses have followed. They lost 2-0 at Turf Moor to Liverpool and 3-2 at Aston Villa on Saturday.

Burnley Team News

The Clarets have held onto Lyle Foster despite the AFCON taking place. Exciting young winger Luca Koleosho is ruled out for the season with a knee injury. Jack Cork could return to give more options in midfield after a calf problem.

In defence, Hjalmar Ekdal and Jordan Beyer are both absent and doubtful respectively. Sander Berge was red carded at Aston Villa and will be suspended for this match. Michael Obafemi could feature in attack as he makes his way back from a long-term injury.

Burnley Motivation

The starting XI here will indicate how seriously Kompany is taking this competition.

Burnley have been more pragmatic and transition-focused of late and may allow Spurs plenty of possession.

Key Stats

Spurs have won 3 of their last 6 home EPL matches (3 losses)

Tottenham have conceded 12 goals in 5 EPL matches without Romero

Spurs won 5-2 in the last meetings with Burnley

Burnley have lost 11 of their last 14 matches

Burnley have leaked 28 goals in the last 14 fixtures (2.00 per game)

Verdict

Even with some big players missing here, Tottenham should have enough for a win in 90 minutes. Burnley should be on the scoresheet considering Spurs’ makeshift defence.

Best Bet: Tottenham win and Over 2.5 goals at 2.05

Value Bet: Tottenham win and Both Teams to Score at 2.85

Goalscorer Tip: Richarlison to score anytime at 2.20

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis