The Most Valuable Ball Progressors In The PSL

By now, most football fans are familiar with expected goals (xG), a statistic that measures the quality of a team’s chances by estimating the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal. This metric has become a vital tool for understanding and evaluating performance and has even started shaping scouting and recruitment strategies. However, while xG remains the focal point in analyzing chance creation, another metric is gaining traction beyond just the final shot: expected threat (xT). Laduma Analytics brings you this new metric straight from the pitch.

The Concept of Expected Threat (xT)

In simple terms, expected threat (xT) measures how dangerous a particular area on the pitch is, based on the likelihood of scoring from possession in that zone. Think of it like this: when you’re at a crowded pub on a Saturday night, deciding which side of the bar to approach for quicker service, you make an intuitive calculation to pick the faster option. While you’re not performing an actual calculation, your decision is based on recognizing that one side offers greater value in terms of time efficiency. In football, the idea is similar — certain areas of the pitch are inherently more valuable for creating scoring opportunities.

How xT Works In Practice

By analyzing how players contribute to moving the ball through different zones, xT helps identify the top ball progressors in a league. These are players who may not always receive credit for creating chances but whose actions are critical to their team’s attacking potential.

The Importance Of Ball Progression

What sets xT apart from other metrics is its ability to reveal how players drive their team’s chances. Rather than simply measuring final actions like goals, shots, or assists, xT tracks the movement of the ball and the value of each position it occupies. This metric offers a more comprehensive understanding of how a team works to create high-quality scoring opportunities, even when those chances don’t directly lead to shots or goals.

xT In The 2024/25 PSL

By examining a player’s xT from completed passes, we can identify the league’s best ball progressors. Some of these players are predictable, while others may be underrated in their ability to advance the ball. The chart below shows the xT per game generated by a player from their passes.

Keletso Makgalwa stands out as the league’s most threatening ball progressor this season. His incisive passing into the final third and penalty area has generated significant xT for Sekhukhune United, confirming what the eye test suggests. No wonder he also ranks second overall for chances created. Elsewhere, Gaston Sirino and Riaan Hanamub are proving their value to their clubs. Lwandile Mabuya, Darwin Gonzalez, and Puso Dithejane are also high on the list. Though they may not have many assists, xT offers a new way to appreciate their contributions.

The Road Ahead For Expected Threat

As xT continues to evolve, its applications are broadening. Teams and analysts can use it to track how players and teams progress the ball, identify key contributors to attack, and evaluate the efficiency of a team’s overall strategy. While xG remains a powerful tool for analyzing shooting quality, xT provides a more holistic view of the attacking process, offering deeper insight into why certain moments on the pitch hold more value than others.