Chelsea v Villarreal – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Chelsea face Villarreal in the UEFA Super Cup on Wednesday evening at Windsor Park in Belfast. The Blues won last season’s UEFA Champions League whilst Villarreal lifted the Europa League. Both sides beat clubs from Manchester as Chelsea triumphed 1-0 against Man City whilst Unai Emery’s team beat Manchester United on penalties.

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Chelsea were largely excellent after Thomas Tuchel was last appointed in January. The German coach oversaw 18 clean sheets in his first 24 matches in charge in a remarkable return defensively. The team finished the domestic season last time out with some disappointing results. They were beaten 1-0 at home in the league by Arsenal, 1-0 in the FA Cup final to Leicester and 2-1 on the final day against Aston Villa.

Tuchel’s team bounced back to beat Man City 1-0 in the UEFA Champions League final after a first-half goal from Kai Havertz. The Blues have had a decent pre-season with good performances against Arsenal and Tottenham.

Chelsea Team News

After the Euros, many players were late to return to pre-season. This includes three England players in Reece James, Ben Chilwell and Mason Mount. Jorginho and Emerson also reported back late, as did Cesar Azpilicueta, Andreas Christensen and Thiago Silva (after Copa America duty). Tuchel has mentioned not risking injuries with these players so it’s possible only one or two could start.

Striker Romelu Lukaku will hope to get his £97m move completed in time to feature in Belfast, most likely from the bench, with a starting frontline of Timo Werner, Kai Havertz and Hakim Ziyech expected. Callum Hudson-Odoi and Marcos Alonso are likely to be the wingbacks whilst Kurt Zouma could start at centre back.

Chelsea Motivation

Chelsea have lost the last three Super Cups they have played in, in 2013, 2014 and 2019. The last time the club lifted this trophy was in 1998 and they will be motivated to win after the most recent disappointment against Liverpool under Frank Lampard.

Tuchel is not expected to change his tactics of playing a back three and being defensively resolute but he also isn’t willing to risk the health and fitness of his players. The coach will want to avoid extra time and could make attacking changes to turn the match in 90 minutes if needed.

Villarreal Form

Villarreal had a mixed domestic campaign last time out as the side finished a full 21 points off the top four in La Liga and ended in seventh position. Emery oversaw 10 losses and 13 draws in their 38 matches and lost four times in their final nine league games.

After thrashing ten-men Sevilla 4-0, they lost 2-1 at Real Madrid on the final day. The Europa League final saw them take the lead against Man Utd through Gerard Moreno’s goal. United levelled in the second half and after a defensive performance by the Yellow Submarine. Emery’s charges won the match on penalties.

Villarreal Team News

Villarreal made the loan move for right-back Juan Foyth into a permanent deal this summer and he will start. Striker Carlos Bacca has departed despite finishing last season strongly but striker Boulaye Dia has been signed from Reims for £10m. He is expected to be amongst the substitutes.

One big consideration for Emery is that central defender Pau Torres played in the Olympics final on Saturday and will have to fly straight to Belfast for this match as well as pass a COVID-19 test. If cleared, he is expected to start in central defence.

Villarreal Motivation

Emery has twice played the UEFA Super Cup before and is yet to taste victory. The Spanish coach has spoken about his eagerness to lift this trophy and he has said he expects to face an under-strength, Chelsea XI.

Villarreal are a very defensive side who can absorb pressure and use set-pieces or counter attacks as their main source of goals. If they score first, expect them to sit back and park the bus to defend the lead.

Key Stats

Chelsea have kept 18 clean sheets in their last 28 matches

Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 21 of their last 24 matches in all competitions

Chelsea have lost their last 3 UEFA Super Cup matches

Unai Emery has lost both of his previous UEFA Super Cup matches

Villarreal have lost 5 of their last 12 matches

Villarreal have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 7 matches after 6 matches without one

Villarreal have seen Both Teams to Score No in 4 of their last 7 matches

Prediction

This will certainly be a tight match as both coaches set up to keep clean sheets first and foremost. A low scoring match with under 1.5 goals in 90 minutes looks the best bet. With Chelsea missing some of their key players, a draw in 90 minutes could be a good call too. This match does look likely to finish 0-0 or 1-0 either way in regulation time.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 goals at 2.10

Alternative Bet: Draw (90 mins) at 3.60

Alternative Bet: Chelsea to lift the cup at 1.38

Correct Score Tip: 0-0 draw at 9.00