Sporting CP v Arsenal – Preview, Predictions, And Best Bets

Sporting CP host Arsenal at Estadio Jose Alvalade XXI on Thursday night in the Europa League round of 16 first leg. The Gunners will want to try to win this competition but their league title challenge is a higher priority. Sporting are 15 points off the top in the Primeira Liga so all their eggs are in this basket.

Sporting Lisbon Form

It hasn’t been a great season for Rúben Amorim’s side. Their UEFA Champions League commitments saw a poor run with six defeats in ten fixtures. Once they could focus on domestic action, they finished 2022 with seven wins in a row. Since the World Cup, it’s three losses in 13 fixtures.

Amongst those defeats were a 2-0 loss to Porto in the Taca da Liga cup final and 2-1 home defeat to the Dragons in the league. Since that, they’ve progressed 5-1 on aggregate in the Europa League against Midtjylland (1-1 home draw, 4-0 away win vs ten men). The latter victory in Denmark was followed by two Primeira Liga wins 2-0 vs Estoril and 1-0 at Portimonense.

Sporting Lisbon Team News

There is one major absentee for Amorim to deal with as key midfielder Manuel Ugarte serves a suspension. Daniel Braganca is also absent in the engine room so Argentine teenager Mateo Tanlongo will battle Mateus Fernandes for a start.

Hector Bellerin is set to be left on the bench vs his former club as Ricardo Esgaio is preferred as the right wingback. Former Barcelona winger Trincao is set to be left amongst the substitutes with Pote and former Tottenham man, Marcus Edwards preferred.

Sporting Lisbon Motivation

Sporting are five points off a top-three finish in the league and Champions League qualification. Their title challenge has been over for months.

100% focus is on this match and trying to reach the quarter-finals. They will play to win this first leg as a draw will make the second leg at the Emirates an uphill battle.

Arsenal Form

Arsenal sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League table. They’ve had an incredible season and recently bounced back from a four-match winless run (three losses) by winning four league matches in a row in a very strong response. After a 3-1 home defeat to Man City, they dropped to second in the table albeit with a game in hand.

Two injury-time goals saw a 4-2 win at Aston Villa in the next match before limiting Leicester to one shot in a 1-0 win at the King Power Stadium. An amazing second half at home saw a 4-0 win against Everton from their game in hand. Last time out, they trailed 2-0 at home to Bournemouth but scored a 98th-minute winner after 31 shots and 80% possession.

Arsenal Team News

There are some big decisions for Arteta to make. The league is his priority so there may be some rotation for this one, but still, a strong team fielded. Gabriel Jesus is out and Eddie Nketiah is injured and not expected to be risked. Leandro Trossard’s groin injury vs Bournemouth leaves few options. Arsenal probably can’t afford to risk Gabriel Martinelli to Emile Smith Rowe could be used as a false nine.

In other areas, Jorginho should start and Granit Xhaka is fresh having had a partial rest last time out. Fabio Vieira and Reiss Nelson could be in the XI and Takehiro Tomiyasu, Jakub Kiwior, Rob Holding and Kieran Tierney are also pushing for minutes.

Arsenal Motivation

The Gunners will want to get a good result in this match ahead of the second leg. A draw would be a good outcome, but Arteta is not going to risk injuries and fatigue to get it.

The Fulham away match on Sunday is the top priority so full focus is not expected to be on this match.

Key Stats

Sporting CP have lost 2 of their last 5 home matches

Sporting Lisbon are winless in 3 home European matches (LLD)

Arsenal have won 7 of their last 9 away EPL matches (17-6 aggregate)

Arsenal have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 8 away EPL matches

Arsenal have lost 2 of their last away Europa League matches

Verdict

This is a match where one needs to see the starting XI for Arsenal first. If they rest plenty of players, then Sporting could get at least a draw. If it’s a strong Gunners team, then they could make it three losses for the Portuguese club at home in Europe this season.

Best Bet: Arsenal win at 2.10
Alternative Bet: Draw at 3.40
Multiplier Leg: Arsenal win/draw double chance + Under 4.5 goals at 1.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis