Spain v Serbia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Spain faces Serbia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday. The European Champions have lost just once in their last 22 fixtures but could only manage a 0-0 draw against the Eagles in September. Serbia has won just three of their last 13 matches and has failed to score in three of their four meetings with Spain.

Spain Form

Spain has lost just one match in the past 19 months. They were deserving winners of Euro 2024, winning all seven matches in the tournament. A 2-1 win over Germany in extra time in the quarter-finals was followed by a 2-1 victory over France and a 2-1 win over England in the final, thanks to an 86th-minute winner.

They began the UEFA Nations League with a frustrating 0-0 away draw against Serbia, despite having 74% possession and 21 shots. A superb 4-1 win away to Switzerland followed, even though they played 70 minutes with ten men. On Saturday, they beat Denmark 1-0 in Murcia, outshooting the Danes 25-3.

Spain Team News

Spain may recall Marc Cucurella at left-back. With Nico Williams and Ferran Torres unavailable, Mikel Oyarzabal could play on the left wing again.

Dani Carvajal and Rodri are out with injuries, and Pedro Porro and Martín Zubimendi are set to replace them. Fermin Lopez, Dani Olmo, and Gavi are all sidelined due to injuries in midfield.

Spain Motivation

Spain has been beaten just once in 22 fixtures. They are taking the Nations League more seriously than many other nations.

They will expect to dominate Serbia, as they did in Belgrade. An early goal will be crucial to force Serbia to open up.

Serbia Form

Serbia entered Euro 2024 having lost five of their previous ten matches. They lost 1-0 to England in their opening game before needing a last-minute equalizer to draw 1-1 with Slovenia. A 0-0 draw with Denmark saw them eliminated in the group stage.

Their Nations League campaign began with a gritty 0-0 home draw against Spain, despite having just 26% possession. After losing 2-0 away to Denmark, they ended a five-match winless run on Saturday with a 2-0 home win over Switzerland, though they had only 33% possession and conceded 1.60 xG.

Serbia Team News

Coach Dragan Stojković typically uses a 3-4-2-1 formation. Aleksandar Mitrović will lead the attack, with Juventus’ Dušan Vlahović unavailable. Dušan Tadić has retired from international football since the Euros.

Midfielder Sergej Milinković-Savić is ruled out due to injury, and Fulham’s Saša Lukić is unavailable with a muscle problem. Sevilla’s Nemanja Gudelj continues to be left out. Aston Villa teenager Kosta Nedeljković could earn just his fourth cap at right wing-back.

Serbia Motivation

Serbia is a defensively-minded team. They tend to disregard possession statistics, even in home matches (26% vs Spain, 35% vs Denmark).

Expect a defensive setup with plenty of long balls aimed at Mitrović. A draw would be a great result, but they’ll also try to snatch a win if possible.

Key Stats

Spain has lost just once in their last 22 matches.

Spain has won 11 of their last 12 matches (30 goals scored).

Serbia has won just 3 of their last 13 matches.

Serbia has failed to score in 3 of their 4 previous meetings with Spain.

Verdict

Spain is likely to dominate possession and control the match. Serbia will be tough to break down, but the hosts should find the goal they need for a narrow victory.

Best Bet: Spain to win to nil at 2.05.

Value Bet: Spain to win by exactly 1 goal at 3.35.

Correct Score Tip: Spain 1-0 Serbia at 6.25.