Spain v Italy – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Spain faces Italy in UEFA Euro 2024 on Thursday in Gelsenkirchen. La Roja beat Croatia 3-0 in their opening match whilst the Azzurri came from behind to beat Albania 2-1. The sides last met in June 2023 as Spain won 2-1.

Spain Form

Spain won the UEFA Nations League in June last year on penalties after a 0-0 draw vs Croatia. Six successive victories in Euro 2024 qualifiers followed as they topped their group. That streak included some big wins including 7-1 vs Georgia and 6-0 vs Cyprus.

In March, they played two friendlies, losing 1-0 to Colombia in London and drawing 3-3 against Brazil. They played two warmup matches before the Euros, thrashing Andorra 5-0 and Northern Ireland 5-1. Their opening match in the tournament was a 3-0 win over Croatia. They scored three goals between the 29th minute and half-time.

Spain Team News

Spain have two minor concerns ahead of this match. Rodri was taken off in the second half with fatigue after a long season. He will be fit to start this key match.

Coach Luis de la Fuente saw captain and striker Alvaro Morata go off with a knock against Croatia. On the off chance that he doesn’t recover in time, Mikel Oyarzabal will lead the line in preference to Joselu. Marc Cucurella is set to keep his place at left-back.

Spain Motivation

A draw would be a decent result in this match whilst a victory would pretty much seal top spot.

This Spain team are not as possession reliant as sides of the past. They will spend some time inviting pressure and using their fast wingers on the break.

Italy Form

Italy had a terrible 12 months from June 2022 to June 2023. They lost five of 12 matches during that period and were thrashed by Argentina (3-0) and Germany (5-2). Since losing 2-1 to Spain in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals, they’ve lost just once in 12 matches. Their European qualifying group ended with a 3-1 loss to England, a 5-2 win over North Macedonia, and a 0-0 draw vs Ukraine.

They won two friendlies back in March and before this tournament, Italy beat Ecuador 2-0 and drew 0-0 vs Turkiye. A 1-0 win vs Bosnia-Herzegovina was their final warmup result. The tournament began by falling behind vs Albania after 23 seconds before a strong response to win 2-1. They had 17 shots and 68% of the ball in the victory.

Italy Team News

Luciano Spalletti is set to name an unchanged team, assuming Federico Chiesa shakes off a knock. Federico Dimarco is set to remain at left-back despite his error for Albania’s goal last Saturday.

The squad is quite short of depth in the forward areas. AS Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini will play down the left wing again due to a lack of natural wide players at the tournament.

Italy Motivation

This Italy team plays similar football to Spalletti’s Napoli. They invert a fullback and look to dominate central areas and the possession stats.

A draw is a perfectly good result and avoiding a defeat will be key.

Key Stats

Spain have drawn 5 of their last 10 matches vs Italy at the Euros and World Cups

Spain’s Morata has scored 7 goals at the Euros (3rd most in history)

Italy have lost just 1 of their last 12 matches

Italy have lost just 1 of 10 matches vs Spain in major tournaments (Euros and World Cups) (W4 D5) 

Verdict

This looks set to be a tactical and tight match. A draw looks the best value tip with a 1-1 draw as a correct score bet. Morata has played plenty of his football in Italy and is a good bet to score.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.80

Value Bet: Draw at 3.15

Correct Score Tip: Spain 1-1 Italy at 5.75

Goalscorer Tip: Alvaro Morata to score anytime at 2.45

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis