Spain v Germany – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Spain faces Germany in the UEFA Euro 2024 quarter-finals on Friday night in Stuttgart. La Roja beat Georgia 4-1 in the round of 16 whilst Die Mannschaft won 2-0 against Denmark. The last two clashes have seen a 6-0 Spain win and a 1-1 draw in the Group Stages of the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Spain Form

Spain are flying right now. They won the Nations League in 2023 and won their final six Euro 2024 qualifying matches. Their two Euro warmup friendlies saw a 5-0 win over Andorra and a 5-1 victory vs Northern Ireland. Their opening Euro 2024 match saw a 3-0 win over Croatia.

La Roja then outshot Italy 20-4 in a 1-0 win to seal their place in the knockout round. A 1-0 win vs Albania with a second-string XI followed. In the round of 16, Spain came from 1-0 down to thrash Georgia 4-1 with 3.36 xG and 35 shots.

Spain Team News

Coach Luis de la Fuente has no suspensions for this match, but four players are on yellow cards, who are one booking from missing a potential semi-final. The team picks itself for this match with Pedri set to keep his place ahead of in-form Dani Olmo.

Marc Cucurella is expected to start at left back ahead of Alejandro Grimaldo. Robin Le Normand will keep Nacho and Daniel Vivian out of the back four.

Spain Motivation

Spain have a different style to teams of old. They’re more vertical and cross the ball regularly.

They will look to dominate Germany, but the speed of wingers Williams and Yamal allows a counter-attacking approach at times.

Germany Form

Julian Nagelsmann has overseen 12 matches as coach of Germany. After losing friendlies to Turkiye and Austria in November 2023, the nation are now unbeaten in eight matches. In March, they beat France 2-0 away and the Netherlands 2-1 at home. Euro 2024 began with a 5-1 mauling of Scotland.

A 2-0 win over Hungary followed with 19 shots attempted. A very late goal was needed to rescue an undeserved 1-1 draw with Switzerland to seal the top spot in Group A. The round of 16 saw a 2-0 win over Denmark although the margins were fine. By the end, Germany had put up 2.58 xG but were thankful to VAR for a narrow offside call against their opponents.

Germany Team News

The Germans started Leroy Sane against Denmark in preference to Florian Wirtz. It’s a 50-50 call over which of them will start this big match. Kai Havertz will lead the line with Niclas Fullkrug as a plan B.

David Raum is expected to get the nod at left-back once again. Jonathan Tah returns from suspension to start in central defence. All of Antonio Rudiger, Robert Andrich, and Maximilian Mittelstadt are one booking from a suspension.

Germany Motivation

With the home support and an attacking coach, expect Die Mannschaft to press aggressively and attack at speed.

Having had a 6-0 humbling by Spain in 2020, there will be an element of revenge here.

Key Stats

Germany have progressed from 15 of 19 QF ties at major tournaments

Germany’s Musiala has scored 3 goals at Euro 2024

Germany are 8 home matches unbeaten vs Spain (won 5)

Spain’s Morata has scored 7 goals at the Euros (3rd most in history)

Spain have lost 1 of their last 16 matches

Spain have scored 22 goals in their last 7 matches

Verdict

This game looks likely to have plenty of goals. A score draw in 90 minutes is great value. Spain have looked like the best team at Euro 2024 and are backed to reach the semi-finals.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.71

Alternate Bet: Spain to qualify at 1.90

Value Bet: Draw at 3.10

High-Value Correct Score Tip: Spain 2-2 Germany at 13.00

Goalscorer Tip: Morata to score anytime at 2.50 or Musiala to score anytime at 4.20

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis