Spain v France – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Spain faces France in the UEFA Euro 2024 semi-finals on Tuesday night in Munich. La Roja beat hosts Germany 2-1 in the quarter-finals whilst Les Bleus squeezed past Portugal on penalties. Spain have won their last seven matches but lost 2-1 to France when the sides last met in 2021.

Spain Form

La Roja have arguably been the most exciting team at Euro 2024. After eight successive wins between June and November 2023, they lost 1-0 to Colombia and drew 3-3 vs Brazil. They won two friendlies before the Euro and beat Croatia 3-0 in their opening group match.

A resounding 1-0 win over Italy saw them outshoot the Azzurri 20-4, before a 1-0 victory vs Albania. In the last 16, they thrashed Georgia 4-1 with 35 shots and 3.36 xG. Their last match saw a 2-1 win in extra time vs Germany. Spain leaked an equaliser in the 89th minute but got the winner with 119 minutes on the clock.

Spain Team News

Coach Luis de la Fuente is without three starters for this match. Pedri is injured in midfield so Dani Olmo will take his place. At right back, Dani Carvajal is banned with Jesus Navas expected to deputise.

Robin Le Normand is banned so Nacho is expected to partner Aymeric Laporte in preference to Daniel Vivian. Mikel Merino is set to remain on the bench despite his winner against Germany.

Spain Motivation

Spain are expected to have lots of the ball in this match. They will play an attacking game and deliver crosses in the box.

Motivation is very high to reach the final. If they score first, their pace on the break could hurt France.

France Form

Les Bleus have only lost twice in their last 19 matches. They drew 0-0 vs Canada before the Euros before needing an own goal to beat Austria 1-0 in their first match of this tournament. A 0-0 stalemate vs the Netherlands came next as they outshot the Dutch 15-8.

Their final group match saw a 1-1 draw vs Poland with 19 shots but only a penalty being scored. In the round of 16, another own goal was enough to beat Belgium 1-0 as they outshot their neighbours 19-5. The quarter-finals brought a win on penalties after drawing 0-0 vs Portugal.

France Team News

Adrien Rabiot is back from suspension for this match in central midfield. Eduardo Camavinga will therefore drop to the bench.

Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, Aurelien Tchouameni , and Ousmane Dembele all avoid yellow cards against Portugal and remain available. Griezmann and Marcus Thuram are competing to start in the front three.

France Motivation

Les Bleus are not an exciting team, and they play for clean sheets first and foremost. They have netted just three goals in the competition with two coming from own goals.

France would happily take a 1-0 win and won’t open up at any point.

Key Stats

Spain’s Morata has scored 7 goals at the Euros (3rd most in history)

Spain have lost 1 of their last 17 matches

Spain have scored 24 goals in their last 8 matches

France have lost 2 of their last 19 fixtures

France have scored just 3 goals in their last 6 matches (2 own goals, 1 penalty)

France have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches

Verdict

This game looks likely to be tight. France hardly scores or concede goals. Whichever team scores first may have enough to reach the final.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score NO at 1.76

Alternate Bet: Spain to qualify at 1.83

Correct Score Tip: Spain 1-0 France at 6.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis