Spain v England – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

The Spain face England in the final of UEFA Euro 2024 on Sunday. La Rojo beat France 2-1 in the semi-finals while the Three Lions beat the Netherlands 2-1 in the other match. England won 3-2 when the sides last met in 2018.

Spain Form

La Roja have excelled at the Euros, winning all six matches. Their last 16 matches have yielded 14 victories. They beat Croatia 3-0 in their opening group match before dominating Italy in a 1-0 win with the shot count reading 20-4. Their final group match saw a 1-0 victory over Albania with a heavily changed XI.

In the last 16, Spain thrashed Georgia 4-1 with 35 shots and 3.36 xG produced. Two big wins have followed to reach the final. They beat Germany 2-1 in extra time and then triumphed 2-1 over France in the semis. Spain had 61% of the ball in the second half but just one-shot attempt.

Spain Team News

Coach Luis de la Fuente remains without the injured Pedri in midfield with Dani Olmo set to start. At right back, Dani Carvajal returns from suspension and will replace Jesus Navas.

Robin Le Normand is available after suspension in defence but Nacho could keep his place in the XI. Alvaro Morata should be fit after hurting his knee as he collided with a member of UEFA’s security staff in the aftermath of the France win.

Spain Motivation

Spain are a well-rounded side. They showed France that they could ‘defend with the ball’. Their style is generally more vertical than Spain’s sides of old though.

If leading, they can drop back and use Williams and Yamal to launch counter-attacks.

England Form

England have not performed well at the Euros, but they’ve shown character and resilience. A 1-0 win over Serbia preceded a poor display in a 1-1 draw with Denmark. A 0-0 draw vs Slovenia in their final group match saw them top their section.

In the round of 16, the Three Lions were largely outplayed by Slovakia but equalised in the 95th minute and got the winner in extra time. They beat Switzerland on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the last eight. In the semis, Southgate’s side produced their best performance of the Euros as they came from 1-0 down to beat the Netherlands 2-1 thanks to a last-minute winner.

England Team News

Gareth Southgate looks likely to name an unchanged XI. Luke Shaw is probably not ready to start so Kieran Trippier will feature at left back. Ollie Watkins is set to be on the bench despite his winner vs the Dutch.

Kobbie Mainoo will play in central midfield with Phil Foden preferred to Cole Palmer in attack. The latter will be a key impact player in the second half.

England Motivation

This side’s motivation is very high. They are desperate to win a major tournament but could feel pressure from the expectations.

They will be hard to beat and may again look to their bench for late inspiration.

Key Stats

Spain have lost 1 of their last 18 matches (14 wins in last 16)

Spain have scored 26 goals in their last 9 matches

Spain’s Morata has scored 7 goals at the Euros (3rd most in history)

England are 5th in the FIFA Rankings whilst Spain are ranked 8th

England have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches in regulation time

Verdict

A very close final awaits us. Spain may look like a well-oiled machine, but England have individual talent and a better bench. A draw in 90 minutes with England to nick the win in extra time is feasible.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.95

Value Bet: Draw at 2.80

Alternate Bet: England to lift the cup at 2.20