Denmark v Spain– Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Denmark faces Spain in the UEFA Nations League on Friday night. The Danes have managed just two wins in their last eight matches, while La Roja can secure progress to the next stage with a point in Copenhagen.

Denmark Form

Denmark is a difficult team to beat. They entered Euro 2024 with just one loss in 12 matches and went unbeaten in the group stage (three draws). However, they were eliminated in the round of 16 after a 2-0 loss to Germany. Their Nations League campaign started with a 2-0 home win over a ten-man Switzerland side.

They followed that with another 2-0 home victory against Serbia, despite producing just 0.90 xG. A narrow 1-0 defeat to Spain came next, where Denmark was outshot 25-3. On Tuesday, they managed a 2-2 draw away in Switzerland, despite conceding 2.13 xG and allowing 61% possession to their opponents.

Denmark Team News

Versatile wingback Joakim Mæhle has withdrawn from the squad, while Brentford’s Mathias Jensen has not been selected. Brighton midfielder Matt O’Riley, who recently scored against Manchester City, is also left out as he recovers from injury.

Key defender Andreas Christensen remains sidelined. However, Brentford midfielder Christian Nørgaard returns after missing the October international break, as does Fulham center-back Joachim Andersen. Mikkel Damsgaard is also back in the squad.

Denmark Motivation

Coach Lars Knudsen will likely stick to his 3-4-3 formation, which transitions into a defensive 5-4-1 when out of possession. Denmark currently sits second in their group, with a three-point cushion over Serbia.

A draw would be an acceptable result for the Danes, as they can secure qualification in their final match if needed.

Spain Form

Spain is in excellent form despite several injuries. They won the Euro 2024 title after triumphing in every match of the tournament. Their Nations League campaign began with a surprising 0-0 draw in Serbia, where they dominated possession (74%) and outshot their opponents 21-9.

They responded with a commanding 4-1 win over Switzerland, despite playing 70 minutes with ten men. They edged Denmark 1-0 at home with 25 shots and capped off their recent form with a 3-0 victory over Serbia, registering 30 shots and 2.92 xG in a dominant performance.

Spain Team News

Spain is dealing with several key absences. Pau Torres, Dani Carvajal, Rodri, and rising star Lamine Yamal are all ruled out. Ferran Torres and goalkeeper Unai Simón will also miss this match.

Porto striker Samu Omorodion Aghehowa has received his first call-up after scoring 12 goals in 13 matches for his club. Dani Olmo is back from injury, while Barcelona’s Marc Casadó could make his debut.

Spain Motivation

Spain has lost just one of their last 23 matches and is determined to retain the Nations League title. They will aim for all three points in Copenhagen by dominating possession and imposing their style on a physically strong Danish side.

Key Stats

Denmark has lost just 3 of their last 20 matches (but only 2 wins in their last 8).

Denmark has won their last 4 home Nations League matches (all by 2-0 scorelines).

Spain has lost just 1 of their last 23 matches.

Spain has won 12 of their last 13 matches, scoring 33 goals in that period.

Spain has won 7 of their last 8 matches against Denmark.

Verdict

This match is likely to be closer than usual due to Spain’s slew of key injuries. However, they should still have enough quality to secure a victory. A win to nil for Spain appears to offer strong value.

Best Bet: Spain to win at 1.95

Value Bet: Spain to win to nil at 3.15

Goalscorer Tip: Álvaro Morata to score anytime at 2.50