South Africa v Tunisia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

South Africa faces Tunisia in the African Cup of Nations on Wednesday in Group E. Bafana Bafana beat Namibia 4-0 on matchday two and need a draw to guarantee progression to the next round. The Eagles of Carthage need a win from this match to have any hope of reaching the last 16.

South Africa Form         

South Africa went into their last match in iffy form, having lost 2-0 away to Rwanda in a World Cup qualifier, drawing 0-0 with Lesotho in a friendly, and then seeing a 2-0 loss to Mali in their opening AFCON match. They responded with a 4-0 thrashing of Namibia albeit after a soft penalty to open the scoring.

Before that difficult streak, it was just one defeat in 17 fixtures. That run included some fine results like winning 2-1 in Liberia to secure an AFCON place, beating Morocco 2-1 (in a dead rubber, granted), and drawing 1-1 away to Ivory Coast in a friendly.

South Africa Team News

After their convincing victory against Namibia, Hugo Broos is expected to name an unchanged XI. Grant Kekana is set to be preferred to Siyanda Xulu in defence once again.

Thapelo Morena did well as a right winger last time out and is set to start over Thapelo Maseko and Mihlali Mayambela. Percy Tau will play on the left with Evidence Makgopa leading the line.

South Africa Motivation

Bafana Bafana could qualify with a defeat as one of the four best third-placed teams. A draw would secure progression but not in the top spot.

A pragmatic and more direct approach could be seen. South Africa may let Tunisia have plenty of the ball.

Tunisia Form

Tunisia have had a poor tournament so far. They lost 1-0 to Namibia in their opening match as they allowed 1.76 xG with only 0.69 xG produced. Their second match brought a 1-1 draw with Mali as they only mustered five shots and one on target.

They came into the AFCON in good form as they topped their qualification group with 13 points in six fixtures. In World Cup qualifying, they have two wins from two. A 4-0 home win over Sao Tome preceded a 1-0 victory in Malawi. In two pre-AFCON friendlies, they drew 0-0 with Mauritania and beat Cabo Verde 2-0.

Tunisia Team News

Vastly experienced midfielder Ferjani Sassi (79 caps) was left out of the squad. Manchester United loanee Hannibal Mejbri did not make himself available for the tournament. Second top goalscorer Wahbi Khazri retired from international football after the 2022 World Cup.

Tunisia head coach Jalel Kadri could recall Al Ahly left-back Ali Maaloul after dropping him against Mali. Striker Taha Yassine Khenissi went off injured in the opening match and played no part against Mali.

Tunisia Motivation

Nothing less than a win will give Tunisia a chance to progress. They will have to take the game to South Africa and try to attack.

Key Stats

Tunisia have won the last 2 meetings between these nations

Tunisia have failed to score in 6 of their last 9 AFCON matches (2 wins)

Tunisia have lost 3 of their last 5 AFCON group-stage matches

South Africa have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches

South Africa’s last 11 AFCON have seen them score more than 1 goal on just 1 occasion (4-0 vs Namibia)

Verdict

Bafana Bafana can play for a draw in this match or even a narrow defeat may be enough. Tunisia lacks star quality, but they have physicality and height. Not many goals are forecast in this one.

Best Bet: South Africa win/draw double chance at 1.71

Value Bet: Draw at 2.90

Correct Score: 1-1 draw at 5.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis