Napoli v Juventus – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Napoli host Juventus on Friday in Serie A at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. This fixture pits the first and second-placed teams in the league against each other with Luciano Spalletti’s side holding a seven-point lead. The Old Lady have won an incredible eight Serie A matches in a row without conceding to drag themselves back into the title race.

Napoli Form

The Partenopei went into the World Cup break in sensational form. Their Serie A record read 13 wins and two draws from 15 matches with 37 goals scored and just 12 conceded. Some of their standout results were away wins at AC Milan, Lazio, Roma, and Atalanta. The latter were dispatched 2-1 in Bergamo before a 2-0 home win against Empoli and a 3-2 victory against Udinese prior to the mid-season hiatus.

Their first match after the break saw a disappointing 1-0 defeat at Inter Milan. Napoli had 64% of the ball but could only muster nine shots and 0.91 Expected Goals. They bounced back to win 2-0 at Sampdoria as Victor Osimhen and Eljif Elmas scored the goals. They looked more like themselves with 24 shots, three big chances and 3.31 xG.

Napoli Team News

Spalletti has a very settled XI right now in most positions and there are no major injuries and no suspensions to contend with. The only question mark is at centre back. Amir Rrahmani and Min-Jae Kim started the Inter Milan defeat but Juan Jesus came in against Sampdoria for Rrahmani, who then replaced Kim at half-time. It’s not clear which two will start here.

The midfield presents a straight choice between Eljif Elmas, who came in and scored last time out, and usual mainstay Piotr Zielinski. In attack, the same front three is expected so Hirving Lozano would remain amongst the subs.

Napoli Motivation

At home, the motivation to win will be very high. Napoli know a victory puts them 10 points clear of Juventus and guarantees at least a seven point lead even if AC Milan wins their fixture.

Spalletti’s side tend to start games fast and will look for an early lead to protect. Anything less than a win would be considered a poor result.

Juventus Form

The Old Lady started this season poorly in both Serie A and the Champions League. After winning only three of their first nine league fixtures, they also lost five of their six European group matches to finish third and drop down to the Europa League.

In the league, Juventus are in superb form with eight consecutive wins and no goals leaked. Before the break, they beat Inter Milan 2-0 at home, won 1-0 at Verona, and thrashed Lazio 3-0. Since the resumption, they’ve won 1-0 at Cremonese thanks to a 90th-minute goal. Their last match saw a 1-0 home win against Udinese, this time needing a winner in the 86^th minute.

Juventus Team News

Coach Max Allegri is currently using a 3-5-1-1 shape and is set to stick with that for the trip to Naples. Captain Leonardo Bonucci is a major doubt, whilst this match comes too soon for Paul Pogba. Dusan Vlahovic is nearing a return and may make the bench at a stretch.

Angel Di Maria should shake off a knock to play in attack, just behind either Moise Kean’s speed or Arkadiusz Milik’s height. Mattia De Sciglio and Juan Cuadrado are ruled out. Bremer is a doubt but should be fit at the back. Both Federico Chiese and Leandro Paredes are set to be left on the bench.

Juventus Motivation

Juve are in great form and are playing with real belief, grinding out results despite their injuries. A draw would usually be seen as a good result away to Napoli.

However, they need to win to close the gap to the top and will try to take all three points for this one.

Key Stats

Napoli have won 12 of their last 13 Serie A matches

Napoli have won 9/10 home Serie A matches, scoring 30 goals

Napoli have won their last 3 home league matches vs Juve

Juventus have won 8 Serie A matches in a row to zero

Juventus have scored 6 goals in their last 10 away Serie A matches

Verdict

This should be a very good match. Juventus are grinding out results home and away but they aren’t scoring freely. Napoli have been outstanding this season but the Inter Milan defeat has put a little doubt in their minds. The hosts should still win this match. Juve’s four away wins in a row have come 1-0 against bottom-half clubs.

Best Bet: Napoli win at 1.95
Value Bet: Napoli win and Over 2.5 goals at 3.40
Alternative Bet: Napoli win and Osimhen anytime goalscorer at 3.37

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis