Inter Milan v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Inter Milan host AC Milan to the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Saturday in Serie A. The defending league champions are in fine form with ten wins in their last 12 matches. They sit four points clear at the top of the table and face a Milan side who have played a match more. The Rossoneri have won just once in ten league matches against the Nerazzurri.

Inter Form

Inter are in brilliant form with one loss in 20 matches in all competitions – a 2-0 loss at Real Madrid. Their eight matches since then have seen five wins and one draw (0-0 at Atalanta) in Serie A. They also scored in the last seconds to beat Juventus 2-1 in the Italian Super Cup.

Simone Inzaghi’s side have scored 53 league goals in 22 matches, at least six more than any other side, and sit four points clear of Napoli with a game in hand. Since their draw with Juventus in October, Inter have taken 35 points from 13 league matches with just five conceded. That has seen them shoot up to the summit of Serie A.

Inter Team News

Inter have an extremely settled side in their 3-5-2 shape. Inzaghi is not expected to make many changes especially as attacker Joaquin Correa is injured and new signing from Atalanta, left wingback Robin Gosens, is also absent.

The one possible change that the coach could make is to rest both Alexis Sanchez and Lautaro Martinez after their international exertions this past fortnight. Powerful forward Felipe Caicedo was signed from Genoa and he could partner Edin Dzeko in attack. Christian Eriksen has departed for Brentford and had not featured this term anyway after his cardiac arrest.

Inter Motivation

Inter are a winning machine at home and looked in superb form before the recent hiatus. They will attack AC Milan and look to maintain their cushion at the top of Serie A or even extend it.

Simone will have two good striking options on his bench to change the game and could throw on Sanchez as an additional forward if chasing a victory.

AC Milan Form

Milan won their opening eight Serie A matches this season and conceding just four times in the first 12. Things have taken a major dip since then – their last 16 matches in all competitions have seen five defeats and just wins.

Since the eighth of November, they’ve lost four out of 11 Serie A matches. Up to that point, they were 10-2-0 in results and sat tied top of the log with 32 points. Their last two results saw a 2-1 home defeat to Spezia (conceding in the last minute) and a 0-0 home draw against Juventus.

AC Milan Team News

Milan have three major doubts for this match. Fikayo Tomori has been struggling with a knee problem at centre back, joining Simon Kjaer (long-term injury victim) on the sidelines. Pierre Kalulu is ready to deputise once again if needed.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is also a major worry so Olivier Giroud could start up front. Winger Ante Rebic is also touch-and-go. Franck Kessie is back from the AFCON and could even play in his new-found role as a number ten from which he netted a brace against Empoli.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan need a win to close the four point gap to the top of the table. A defeat would leave the gap at seven points having played an extra match, making the title very unlikely.

If they can’t win, then a draw would at least not allow Juventus to close the gap too much in fifth place with the Rossoneri currently seven points clear of fifth in the race for Champions League football.

Key Stats

Inter are 28 home Serie A matches unbeaten (W25, D3)

Inter have scored the most goals in Serie A (53 in 22 matches)

Inter have scored 2+ goals in 12 of their last 14 home matches in Serie A

AC Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches

AC Milan have just 1 win in their last 11 Serie A matches against Inter

Milan have lost just 1 of their last 13 away matches in Serie A (W10, D2)

Verdict

This is a big match in the title race. An Inter win would open up a serious lead over their city rivals. Milan need a victory to keep their hopes alive of winning the league. Inter just look too good at home right and should take a narrow victory.

Best Bet: Inter Milan win at 1.83

Multiplier Leg: Inter/Draw double chance + over 1.5 goals at 1.54

Value Bet: Inter Milan win and both to score at 3.45

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis